US President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday that it was not yet clear whether Iran is still having a nuclear program after the Israeli strikes, but experts have reduced the extent of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, and they said it seemed limited yet.
Experts reviewed the commercially available satellite pictures that the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities was caused by the first wave of air strikes launched by Israel early Friday morning, apparently limited.
Israeli attacks resulted in the killing of Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists and bombing military facilities for leadership and control and air defenses, but a number of experts said that satellite photos have not yet shown significant damage to the nuclear infrastructure.
“The first day was targeting things that could be achieved through surprise, such as the assassination of leaders, the pursuit of nuclear scientists, the air defense systems, and the ability to respond,” said nuclear expert David Albright of the International Science and Security Institute.
“We cannot see any visible damage to Fordo or Isfahan. There are damages in Natanz,” he added. He continued, “There is no evidence of the destruction of the site underground.”
In the context, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told the Security Council on Friday that the enrichment station above the ground at the Iranian Nuclear site was destroyed, and that Iran had reported attacks on Fordo and Isfahan.
The vast Natanz nuclear complex is the main uranium enrichment facility in Iran, and it includes an underground fertilization facility and another above Earth.
In his analysis, Ulbright was based on the latest available images, which were taken at 11:20 am Tehran time (0750 GMT). He added that there were also strikes with drones on tunnels that lead to centrifugal stations underground, and electronic attacks that have not left traces that can be seen with the eye.
“With regard to visual damage, we do not see much and we will see what will happen tonight,” he added, adding that he believes that Israeli strikes are still at an early stage.
Uranium stock and the size of the damage
Ulbright noted that the placing of Iran’s in stocks of enriched uranium is unknown, and that Israel has been able to avoid large attacks on nuclear sites, due to fears of damaging the international inspectors who were there.
Albright confirmed the presence of thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz underground station, noting that cutting off electricity supplies will lead to the operation of a spare batteries system.
He added that Iran is likely to close the centrifuges on the ground in a tight manner, which is a huge operation.
He explained that “the batteries last for a while, but they will be implemented in the end, and if the centrifuge stops working in an indisputable way, many of them will be disrupted.”
For its part, Israel announced that it had targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military leaders at the beginning of an operation that would be lengthy to prevent Tehran from making a nuclear weapon.
Military and nuclear experts said that even with the enormous fire force, military action may only lead to a temporary disability for a program that the West fears that it is already aimed at producing atomic bombs one day, although Iran denies this.
Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in preventing nuclear proliferation at the Midelbberry Institute for International Studies, said the damage to the Natanz facility appears to be “moderate”.
“Israel destroyed a fuel fertilization station, in addition to some supportive buildings associated with energy supplies,” he added, noting that Israel also bombed a support building – perhaps for energy supplies – near two underground nuclear facilities for uranium enrichment.
He explained that “it does not seem that the underground enrichment halls, as well as the underground facility near the mountains, have not been damaged.”
It is not yet clear the extent of damage to the Fordo’s main nuclear facility, which is located at a large depth underground and can be used to develop nuclear weapons.
“It was always agreed that Israel may not have the weapons needed to destroy Fordo without US military support,” said Mark Dobits, head of the Democrats Defense Foundation.
The United States is better equipped with Israel to destroy such goals, using its strongest supernatural bombs for 30,000 pounds (14 thousand kg).
Dopits pointed out that if Iran decides not to negotiate the nuclear agreement, the United States may use its B-2 bombs, and those bombs to destroy the Fordo facility.
Decker Evilith – a strategic analyst in the Kurb Research Group – said the general goal of the Israeli campaign is still unclear.
He added that “they may succeed in dismantling Iranian leadership and control, destroying the Air Force, and hitting a variety of targets associated with the Iranian missile program.”
He continued, “(But) if their primary goal is to prevent nuclear development, so can they destroy enough Iranian nuclear infrastructure to prevent this from actually occurring?”