Last update: 9/17/202408:24 PM (Makkah Time)
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that Israel will not risk a major campaign against the Lebanese Hezbollah before the US elections due to the opposition of the Democratic administration, which fears a regional war that would lose candidate Kamala Harris the votes of supporters of the Palestinian cause.
Ron Ben-Yishai wrote in a lengthy analysis that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Galant agree on the need for the residents of the north to return to their homes, and that Galant and the security establishment do not condition a major campaign on a cessation of fighting in Gaza, or prefer to conclude a prisoner exchange deal that would result in a ceasefire in the north as well.
He explained that the government statement, which added the return of the northern residents to their homes as an official goal of the war on the Lebanese front, is primarily a political message and a warning to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and an attempt to help US envoy Amos Hochstein in his efforts to conclude an agreement under which the party’s fighters would withdraw from near the border, in his opinion.
Defense Minister Galant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have publicly said that preparations for a campaign in Lebanon are complete, and they are only waiting for approval from the political level.
The Israeli writer suggested that the plans had been completed, and said that the security establishment prefers a large campaign that would completely neutralize the danger of Hezbollah and change the balance of deterrence, and would not be limited to establishing a buffer zone that would not deter the party from launching its heavy missiles and drones to cover all of Israel, and attempts to secure it might end in a new war of attrition like the one witnessed in southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000.
Ron Ben-Yishai warned that Netanyahu’s efforts to isolate Galant harm the goals of Israel and the administration of US President Joe Biden, as it comes at the height of the war and expresses a growing internal division in Israeli society and “encourages Nasrallah and Iran” not to give up their weapons in southern Lebanon, not to mention the damage that his departure in this way will cause to internal legitimacy and what he called the cover of legitimacy that the Americans are trying to provide for Israel internationally.
Democrats and War
According to the Israeli writer, Tel Aviv is not rushing into war in the north, not because of the disagreement between Netanyahu and Galant, but because of the Democratic administration’s secret and public opposition for reasons likely related to the upcoming elections, as it fears losing the votes of supporters of the Palestinian cause if a regional war breaks out before the vote, which makes it oppose escalation in Gaza and Lebanon in particular because “it will leave Iran and its allies no choice but to intervene.”
Although Tehran prefers to avoid a major war in the region as long as it does not possess nuclear weapons ready for use and reliable – according to the Israeli writer – Nasrallah may ask it to launch missiles and drones to distract the air force so that it does not focus its forces on Beirut and Baalbek, and he may also ask it to mobilize its allies in Iraq and Yemen to help in the fighting on the ground.
Defense Minister Galant told his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, that Israel cannot allow the “suffering” of the residents of the north to continue, but Netanyahu and the security establishment agree – according to the writer – on the necessity of responding to Washington’s demands for restraint in exchange for receiving the necessary political support from it.
This support – which Israel needs, as the writer sees it – will make it submit to the demands and work to conclude a prisoner deal that will also result in a ceasefire in the north and give Washington’s envoy enough time to convince Nasrallah that his best option is an agreement under which he will withdraw his forces from near the border, rather than forcing him to do so through a broad military operation.
The writer concluded his analysis by saying that the residents of northern Israel must be convinced that they will not return to their homes for some time, and that the army is using this time to destroy what it calls Hezbollah’s infrastructure – especially the missile launch pads there – so that a ground incursion will face less resistance if it is launched after a few months, but Israel will then be assured of continued US support regardless of its new president.
This comes after Israeli Channel 13 said last Saturday that Netanyahu had decided to expand the military operation on the northern front, and that Israel was “on the verge of a broad and powerful operation on the northern front.”
Netanyahu’s decision to expand military operations in the north came amid expectations that the return of residents of border towns in northern Israel to their homes would be officially approved as one of the goals of the current war.