In this section taken from the American Election Courier, our journalists answer questions from our readers. Click here to subscribe.
Would the vote of pro-abortion women and men be enough to move things in favor of Joe Biden in certain swing states? – Serge Emond
An interesting question, but very complex, according to the experts consulted!
We must first ask ourselves whether this theme will be crucial for voters when checking their ballot.
Previously, abortion was a rather secondary concern for them, Véronique Pronovost, a doctoral student in sociology and feminist studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal, points out from the outset.
But in two years, the number of voters who described it as a main and determining issue increased from 27% in 2022 to 32% in 2024 — a “significant” increase, and a record, notes the researcher at Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California at Davis School of Law, specializing in reproductive rights and American conservatism, believes that abortion will have repercussions on the presidential election. But to the point of translating into decisive support for the Democrats? “It’s hard to say. »
However, she recalls that this divisive issue weighed in the balance during the mid-term elections in 2022 and that, generally speaking, this seems to have helped the Democrats.
The role of the president
On the other hand, not all Americans necessarily make the link between a vote for the next tenant of the White House and abortion.
Because the cancellation in June 2022 of the decision Roe v. Wadewhich constitutionally protected the right to abortion, the power to legislate and impose restrictions on the voluntary termination of pregnancy has returned fully to the hands of the states.
In short, even if the pro-abortionists are dissatisfied since the invalidation of Roesome may wonder what outgoing President Joe Biden can actually do about it if he is re-elected, continues Professor Ziegler.
Whoever is elected as head of the United States will, however, be able to choose the next justices of the Supreme Court. Those appointed by Republican Donald Trump after his election in 2016 changed the course of history by participating in the drafting of the decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organizationthe one who canceled Roe v. Waderecalls assistant professor of political science at McGill University Kelly Gordon, who is closely interested in conservative political movements and reproductive justice.
Two years of mobilization
Was the mobilization of the troops on the subject of abortion there, and sufficient, to influence the result of the vote?
Activists outraged the day Roe v. Wade was invalidated in June 2022 promised that abortion would be a major issue in the next presidential election.
And there is mobilization, notes law professor Carrie Baker, from Smith College, in Massachusetts, specializing in feminist studies and reproductive rights. Pro-abortionists mobilized in 2022 in swing states, and there was no red wave, she said.
Historically, there was a large pro-abortion group that was not very politically mobilized and a small anti-abortion group that was very motivated and “very vocal.” After the cancellation of Roe, the situation has changed: access to abortion has become more of an issue for pro-choice women and Democrats have become more mobilized, notes Professor Ziegler. “Whereas usually, it is the hobby horse of the Republicans,” adds Mᵐᵉ Pronovost.
On the other hand, the pro-abortion movement “is a little out of breath”, because it has its hands full, particularly to keep as many clinics open as possible, and cannot be present on all fronts, she adds.
On the Democratic side, we saw Joe Biden grab this issue with both hands, since he understands its political benefits, noted Kelly Gordon.
There was also a major tour by his vice-president, Kamala Harris, to promote reproductive freedom across the country.
On the side of anti-abortion activists, there is mobilization, but subject to significant obstacles, explains Mᵐᵉ Pronovost. “Because they had such a resounding victory with Dobbs, they know that they cannot press too hard on this issue, and this is also why, I think, Donald Trump has backed down a little in recent months. » The Republican Party does not want to lose voters more centrally located on the political spectrum.
In any case, Trump can boast of having done more than his predecessors: “He can sit on his laurels,” she adds.
Women’s vote will not be enough
According to expert Kelly Gordon, women’s votes will not be enough to grant victory to Joe Biden.
First, because gender is only one factor among others that influence voting, as are age, religion and political affiliation.
And then, women have other concerns in mind when going to the voting booth: among the youngest, questions of discrimination take precedence, while among the oldest, it is inflation and the cost of health care , analyzes Mᵐᵉ Pronovost based on recent polls.
In short, the vote of women, like that of men, “is not monolithic”, she concludes.
The level of restrictions on abortion in a given state can also affect the extent to which it will be an important issue for its voters, which “can vary from state to state,” notes Professor Gordon.
And then, we must not forget that in addition to the choice of the president and various elected officials, we will find on the ballot papers of several states in November a referendum question on abortion.
These referendums complicate the political situation. A woman who supports reproductive freedom may express this position through a referendum, but prefer candidate Trump because he better embodies solutions to economic problems for her, for example.
All these variables in the profile of voters, from the situation regarding abortion which prevails in each of the 50 states to the presence of a referendum question or not on the ballot, thus complicate predictions of the results of next November 5 .