Without American funding, “we will not see the same war” in Ukraine

Published on : 05/12/2023 – 18:48

6 mins

Financing the war in Ukraine in danger. The United States, in the grip of a political deadlock in the House of Representatives preventing the vote on financial aid to Kiev, worries that it will soon “run out of money and time” to help the country at war with Russia, warned White House budget director Shalanda Young on Monday, December 4.

“If Congress does not act, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to deliver more weapons and equipment to Ukraine and to supply material from U.S. military stockpiles,” she wrote in a letter addressed to Mike Johnson, head of the House of Representatives – with a Republican majority.

After the failure of kyiv’s counter-offensive and Russia’s attempt to regain territories such as the town of Avdiivka in the east, blocking new American funds would darken the picture even more. The absence of these tens of billions of dollars would also mark a turning point for the main financier of the Ukrainian war effort.

“We will not see the same war” if this funding is not soon voted on, explains Michael Stricof, lecturer attached to the Laboratory for Studies and Research on the English-speaking World (Lerma) at Aix-Marseille University and specialist in United States defense policy.

France 24: why is Ukraine’s aid blocked in the United States ?

Michael Stricoff : There is no more funding for Ukraine because of the elections. This blockage is part of the Republican strategy at the moment. There is currently a fairly clear division in American opinion between Democrats and Republicans, but especially within Republicans. The most populist and far-right have essentially sided with Donald Trump against funding for Ukraine.

The White House has been asking for this financial aid for several months (President Joe Biden asked Congress on October 20 to vote for an exceptional package of more than 100 billion dollars, including more than 60 billion for Ukraine, Editor’s note). But it is ultimately still blocked by a small group in the House of Representatives.

How crucial is this aid for kyiv? ?

This is absolutely essential for Ukraine since most of the munitions and weapons used at the moment come from American assistance. The United States has provided $113 billion in aid to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. About $50 billion is direct military aid to kyiv. Much of the rest funds the Ukrainian government and allows the country’s economy to exist in times of conflict.

War is therefore not possible without this external support. On its own, Ukraine does not have the money or military resources to continue this war without other funding. This does not come exclusively from the United States – other countries support Ukraine, including a large number of EU countries – but most of it depends on it.

What consequences could this blockage have on the continuation of the conflict with Russia? ?

There are two possibilities. Despite this blockage, the situation can probably improve by January 20 – the date on which the next shutdown is expected (the closure of administrations, which has already been postponed to November 19, Editor’s note) in the United States if it no other general funding laws passed in Congress until then. It is expected that there will be funding for Ukraine in these upcoming laws. We can imagine that until then, the war ‘can wait’, that in some way Ukraine can maintain the status quo on the ground while waiting for this next tranche of funding.

In the other situation – closure of the American administration or passing of a law without financial assistance for kyiv – it will become quite serious for Ukraine. Either other partners will replace the Americans – but it is difficult to imagine that other countries can or will provide this amount of assistance – or we will have to move on to the next stage of the war, which is- i.e. seek conclusions in one way or another. We will not see the same war. In this case, it would seem difficult to imagine that Ukraine would continue as it has for the past two years without this financial assistance.

Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to US senators on December 5. Is this a sign of the urgency of the situation? ?

Yes. From the beginning, Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian government have been aware that a large part of Ukrainian military capabilities depend on Western assistance in general, but especially American. The Ukrainian president has therefore made a habit of addressing the American Congress to demand more aid, and he sees the situation getting significantly worse at the moment.

Volodymyr Zelensky is well received in the Senate since the Republicans – who are in the majority there – are more traditional, more international, more moderate on these financing issues. But they are not at the origin of the blockage, and Volodymyr Zelensky will not have as interlocutors the ultra-right in the House of Representatives who are preventing the financing of his country. So he hopes to put pressure on other Republicans to then talk to their colleagues.

Beyond the current blockage in the House of Representatives, are we not ultimately in the perspective of Washington’s gradual disengagement from Ukraine? ?

We cannot say that this story represents a general withdrawal of the United States from the international scene. We are dealing with a fairly specific political blockage relating to the election calendar and a fairly clear division between part of the American right on Russian-Ukrainian questions dating from the Trump administration.

This type of blockage – whether for funding or for the construction of a general coherent policy – ​​is happening more and more often. Over the last 30 years, we have gone from a partial closure of American administrations every ten years to two every five years, then to a threat of closure and therefore blockage in Congress every year, then several times a year. As long as the United States remains so divided in its domestic politics, it will be difficult to have a coherent foreign policy.