Washington DC – The Israeli army will fight in Gaza for at least seven months, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said earlier this week.
This prediction raises concerns about the fate of the Palestinian territory, already facing famine, massive displacement and daily Israeli violence which has killed more than 36,000 people since October 7.
A prolonged war would also harm Joe Biden’s re-election campaign in November, experts say, as the US president already faces plummeting public support for his unequivocal support of Israel.
Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Washington DC think tank Arab Center, said an Israeli offensive in Gaza that extends beyond the November 5 US election could mean Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlasts Biden.
“I would like to say that this scenario is unrealistic, but I can’t. This scenario is real. And it could happen on November 5,” Jahshan told Tel Aviv Tribune.
For months, advocates have warned that Netanyahu has a personal political interest in prolonging the war to strengthen his political position at home.
The opposite is true for Biden. Several opinion polls in the United States currently favor former Republican President Donald Trump beating Biden in November – albeit by a relatively small margin.
Recent surveys in Israel also show Netanyahu regaining popularity and ahead of his main rival, War Minister Benny Gantz.
The war in Gaza hurts Biden
Josh Ruebner, a professor at Georgetown University’s Justice and Peace program, said there was no doubt the war on Gaza would hurt Biden’s re-election chances.
“The signs are clear. The writing is on the wall,” Ruebner told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“And if Biden decides to maintain this constant support for Israel for another seven months, it will not only kill tens of thousands more Palestinians, but it will also lose him the election. »
On Wednesday, an Arab American Institute (AAI) poll showed that Arab American support for Biden in key swing states is at 18%, down from 60% in 2020, largely because of his Gaza policies.
James Zogby, president of the IAA, said it would be politically “dangerous” for Biden and the Democratic Party if the war continued until the US elections in November.
“That means if the president doesn’t do something very dramatic, then this election won’t be easy for him,” he told reporters during a virtual press briefing.
Zogby added that Biden not only risks losing the support of Arab voters.
“Young people, black people, Asian people are following this on a daily basis, seeing a genocide taking place. They are not indifferent to what they see,” he said.
“They are horrified. And then the president says, “No red lines have been crossed.” Let’s just keep doing what we’re doing. It’s infuriating and hurtful.
BREAKING- AAI 2024 election poll #ArabAmericans in key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
KEY FINDINGS:
– Support for Biden at 18%
– 88% disapprove of Biden’s management of Gaza
– 80% consider Gaza an important element in determining their vote– Arab American Institute (@AAIUSA) May 30, 2024
Yet Biden shows no signs of changing course in his pro-Israel policy, even as Netanyahu openly defies calls from the White House to avoid civilian casualties and not invade Rafah, a town in southern Gaza.
The US president, for example, last month approved an additional $14 billion in aid to Israel. And last May, after threatening to suspend arms deliveries if Israel launched a major offensive in Rafah, media reported that the Biden administration was nonetheless planning to proceed with a billion-dollar arms sale.
Ruebner said the Biden campaign was denying the impact of the president’s foreign policy on the election.
“There are a lot of fantasies and illusions in Biden’s world that this doesn’t affect his chances of being re-elected,” he said. “But it clearly is. And if he allows Israel to continue this course of action until the end of the year, I think that will play a huge role in its defeat.”
A survey conducted by the think tank Data for Progress, in collaboration with the news site Zeteo, showed earlier this month that 56 percent of Democrats surveyed believed Israel was committing “genocide” in Gaza.
But several US media outlets suggested that Biden and many of his Democratic allies had doubts about polls showing him trailing Trump.
Would Israel prefer Trump?
Biden was an uncompromising supporter of Israel long before he arrived in the White House. But despite this stance, Jahshan of the Arab Center said Netanyahu and his right-wing allies would prefer to deal with Trump.
“They would love to see Trump come back. They feel they will get what they want with him,” he said.
Jahshan added that while Biden’s support for Israel is ironclad, the US president’s calls for more aid and protection of civilians in Gaza are seen as a “nuisance” by Netanyahu’s camp.
Although Biden often publicly expresses his “love” for Netanyahu, experts say the two leaders appear to have a strained relationship, particularly in recent months.
The US president repeatedly warned Netanyahu against invading Rafah, but Israel ignored that red line and launched a deadly attack on the southern Gaza city last month.
In televised remarks, Netanyahu also appeared to reject Biden’s threats to stop arms deliveries, saying: “If we have to be left alone, we will be alone.” If necessary, we will fight with our nails.
Israel also continues to impose a stifling siege on Gaza, despite U.S. demands to allow more humanitarian aid into the territory.
Washington also favors a two-state solution to the broader conflict, while Netanyahu vehemently opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
Biden’s support for Israel remained unwavering, even as his calls regarding Gaza were ignored. Yet with Trump, Israel is unlikely to receive even these verbal warnings, Jahshan said.
The former president, mired in legal problems, did not comment regularly on the war in Gaza.
Trump recently promised donors in a closed-door meeting that he would crack down hard on pro-Palestinian student protesters if elected, according to a Washington Post report.
As president, Trump further shifted U.S. policy to align with Israel’s right-wing leaders. He moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, ended aid to the Palestinians and imposed sanctions on International Criminal Court officials for investigating possible Israeli abuses.
“Trump is unpredictable. He could go in all kinds of different directions, most of them contradictory. I suspect he will go in a worse direction than Biden (in support of Israel),” Jahshan said.