Fears have increased that the war waged by Israel on the Gaza Strip will expand across the region after the attacks in Lebanon and Iraq and the explosions in Iran, but experts say that a broader conflict is unlikely at the present time.
Three months after the start of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, tensions escalated in the region. The Israeli attack led to the death of 22,438 people, most of them women and children, according to the latest figures from the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
Lebanon, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and an American official announced that Israel was behind an air strike that resulted in the martyrdom of prominent Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri (57 years old) in the Lebanese Hezbollah stronghold in the southern suburb of Beirut last Tuesday.
However, Israel did not claim responsibility for the assassination of Al-Arouri, one of the founders of the military wing of Hamas in the occupied West Bank, but accused him of masterminding many attacks.
In turn, Iran held both Israel and the United States responsible for the Kerman explosions – yesterday, Wednesday – that killed more than 100 people on the anniversary of the killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani 4 years ago in an American raid in Iraq.
However, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said, “The United States is not involved in any way (in the two bombings), and any statement to the contrary is ridiculous,” as he put it.
Meanwhile, Iraq and the Popular Mobilization Forces held the United States responsible for an “American bombing” that led to the killing of one of the faction’s military commanders in Baghdad on Thursday.
War with Lebanon
Saleh Al-Arouri is the most prominent figure in Hamas who has been martyred since October 7th. The attack that led to his assassination was the first of its kind in Beirut since the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, during which vast areas of southern Lebanon were destroyed and claimed the lives of 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians, and 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers.
Lebanon is suffering from a stifling economic crisis, while the political stalemate has led to the cessation of international aid.
Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said – in a press conference on Tuesday – after Al-Arouri’s martyrdom that his forces “are on alert (…) in defense and attack. We are prepared for all scenarios.”
For his part, Mark Regev, advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that Israel did not claim responsibility for the assassination, stressing at the same time that this was not an “attack on the Lebanese state” or Hezbollah.
In turn, the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, yesterday, Wednesday, warned Israel against waging a war on Lebanon, stressing that the party’s fighting at that time would be “without controls,” considering the assassination of Al-Arouri “a serious crime that will not go without response and punishment.”
An alarming attack
In this context, Karim Al-Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, said that the attack on the southern suburb of Beirut is “worrying.”
He explained, “Even if Iran, Hezbollah, or Israel do not want an open war, miscalculations and ill-considered retaliations may lead to the situation detonating,” as he put it.
For her part, Amal Saad, a professor at Cardiff University in Britain and an expert on Hezbollah affairs, said, “Hezbollah will have to respond in a way that… warns Israel not to repeat this.”
“But it cannot respond in a way that leaves Israel no choice but to launch an all-out war,” she added, noting that Hezbollah will also have to enhance security for other Hamas officials present in Beirut.
As for Maha Yahya of the Carnegie Middle East Center, she said, “I do not think that Hezbollah will have a desire to drag Lebanon into a major conflict at this particular moment and timing, given the regional situation.”
Regional conflict?
For his part, Fabrice Balanche, director of research at the University of Lyon, said that a regional war is unlikely. He added, “The Iranians do not want a confrontation with Israel, nor does Hezbollah, because they know that they will be on the defensive.”
He explained, “If Israel is subjected to a missile attack, the Americans will respond.”
Instead, Iran will likely be content to respond by continuing to obstruct maritime trade in the Red Sea, according to Balanche.
The Houthis in Yemen launched more than 20 attacks on commercial ships around the southern strait of the Red Sea at Bab al-Mandab, disrupting shipping in a waterway through which 12% of global trade passes.
“The Iranians must respond, but not directly,” Balanche said. “Closing Bab al-Mandab is very costly” for those who use this strategic route.