The fighting in Gaza has already sparked a surge in violence across the Middle East, but could the situation get worse?
SATURDAY, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel after Hamas deputy political leader Saleh Arouri was killed in Beirut.
But is this a one-off action or the start of a larger-scale action?
Hezbollah’s rocket attack on northern Israel came a day after its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said the militant group must retaliate for the killing of Saleh Arouri.
If Hezbollah does not respond, all of Lebanon would be vulnerable to Israeli attacks, he warned.
Israel responded to Saturday’s Hezbollah attacks by launching its fighter jets into southern Lebanonthus rekindling fears of regional conflict.
However, some observers claim that the last thing Hezbollah – and Lebanon as a whole – wants is for the bloody fighting between Israel and Hamas to spill within its borders.
“Hezbollah has no interest in seeing Israel escalate the conflict in Lebanon and would therefore not give it the opportunity to do so“, explains Dr Bashir Saade, professor of politics and religion at the University of Stirling, to Euronews.
“Arouri’s assassination is not at all a setback for Hezbollah“, he continues, “leaders of resistance groups have been targeted for decades and this has not affected the ability of Hezbollah or others to operate“.
Yet, others see rocket attacks as cross-border escalation.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said earlier that Israel was “ready to face any scenario“, which suggests that the country is not excluding anything.
Washington is worried about regional escalation.
Last weekend, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins his fourth diplomatic tour of the Middle East.
The Biden administration believes the influence of regional countries like Turkey could ease fears of an escalation, with Antony Blinken meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday.
Tensions are escalating between Turkey and Israel. On Saturday, an Istanbul court ordered that 15 of 34 people detained on suspicion of spying for Israel be kept in prison.
Is Hezbollah a danger to Israel?
Since fighting broke out in Gaza on October 7, clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah are reported daily.
But even if there is an escalation, to what extent does Hezbollah pose a threat to Israel?
The least we can say is that the history between the two parties is tumultuous.
In 2006, Hezbollah started a month-long war after capturing two Israeli soldiers. More than 1,000 Lebanese and 150 Israelis were killed.
ADVERTISEMENTThe Shiite political and activist group is said to have played an important role in the creation of the “Gaza metro“, a vast network of tunnels built by Hamas throughout the enclave.
They are believed to have been designed by Hezbollah commander Imad Mughnieh alongside Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a US airstrike on Baghdad in 2020.
The Lebanese Prime Minister has accused Israel of trying to “drag” him into a regional war, and – as Bashir Saade tells Euronews – this is an entirely possible scenario.
“Israel could seek to convince the United States of a regional escalation. By provoking opposing groups to engage in any form of action that could give Israel and the United States justification to do so“, he explains.
However, Bashir Saade issues a warning.
ADVERTISEMENTAlthough Hezbollah said the rockets fired Saturday were a “initial response“to the assassination of the Hamas leader, he believes the group would have difficulty dragging the region into a larger war.
“Hezbollah is undoubtedly the most powerful actor in Lebanon, but it cannot “control” Lebanon, as some parties may think. He must build alliances, make compromises with different programs and political orientations. So far I don’t see any reason to worry“, says Bashir Saade.
Nevertheless, growing regional tensions are felt in the Middle East.
Houthi rebels, based in Yemen, have carried out at least 23 attacks on ships in the Red Sea since December 19. They claim to attack Israeli or Israeli-bound ships to support the Palestinians.
The United States and twelve of its allies have issued a final warning to the rebels, asking them to stop their attacks on this important sea route for world tradeunder penalty of possible targeted military action.
ADVERTISEMENTThey hope this warning will be enough to dissuade them from resorting to violence.
“The United States does not seek conflict with any nation or actor in the Middle East, nor do we want the war between Israel and Hamas to expand into the region.” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week.
“But we will also not shy away from the task of defending ourselves, our interests, our partners or the free flow of international trade.“, he adds.
