Occupied Jerusalem Israel is living in a state of political ambiguity amidst the uncertainty about the course of the multi-front war that the Israeli army has been fighting for more than 11 months, amid anticipation of expanding the coalition of the right-wing government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu in the event that Defense Minister Yoav Galant is dismissed and replaced by the head of the “official right” Gideon Sa’ar.
These developments reflect the depth of the rift in Israeli society and the polarization in the political and partisan arena in the Knesset, indicating the intensification of internal conflicts in Israel, as this is the first case witnessed by Tel Aviv in the history of its wars in which the Prime Minister has moved to dismiss the Minister of Defense during the war.
While Galant remains silent about what the Israeli media reported about semi-final understandings between him and Prime Minister Netanyahu, analysts agreed that this political movement and dismissals during the war period weaken Israel internally, and show it to the world that it is divided within itself and without a strategy.
Analysts’ readings also estimated that Galant is keen to maintain a strategy in harmony with Washington in everything related to its regional policy with its allies in the Middle East, unlike Netanyahu, who adopted a confrontational policy with Washington based on the principle of escaping forward into an endless war.
Analyses agree that Galant, who is considered the “godfather of the comprehensive confrontation with Hezbollah”, and although he was in the minority in the Israeli government when he called for launching a large-scale ground military operation in southern Lebanon following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle, today he is convinced that Tel Aviv, after 11 months of fighting, is not prepared and is not able to wage a regional war without a partnership with America.
exhausted army
In turn, writer and political analyst Suhail Kiwan believes that the internal conflicts witnessed in the Israeli arena are unprecedented and are considered the first of their kind, as there were no cases of disagreement of this kind in the past in the history of the wars fought by Israel, which has always been united during battles.
Kiwan attributed these conflicts to the differences between Netanyahu and Galant, as the latter is pushing for a political and military strategy that is in harmony with the administration of US President Joe Biden, which is summed up by achieving an exchange deal that guarantees the return of the Israeli detainees in Gaza and a ceasefire, which is rejected by the right-wing government led by Netanyahu.
He suggested that since the outbreak of the war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, Galant has adopted a policy of consensus and harmony with Washington that has prevented a clash with the White House. He has often stated that he supports the exchange deal and the cessation of fighting, in line with American proposals, especially since he is convinced that the Israeli army is “exhausted, depleted and not prepared for a comprehensive war.”
The political analyst stressed that Galant is convinced that without American support in terms of weapons and money, Israel would not have been able to fight for more than 11 months. Accordingly, he does not want to involve Washington in a regional war that would threaten its interests and may cause the collapse of some Arab regimes that are considered joint strategic allies of Washington and Tel Aviv.
He also believes that Galant – who is no less extreme than the Israeli right-wing camp in terms of his thinking and ideology – expects the Democratic Party to remain in the White House, attaches great importance to American reconciliation in the Middle East, monitors the expansion of Israeli protests and opposition pressing to stop the war in order to return the detainees, and distances himself from the risk of a regional war without the Israeli army and America being ready for it.
In the face of the escalating pressures and protests in Israeli society, Kiwan says that Galant realized that Netanyahu does not want partners, and is making decisions alone regarding the course of the fighting on the Gaza front, and is pushing towards expanding the other front with Hezbollah, which could cause a regional war that Galant considers a major predicament for Israel, and could lead to counterproductive results.
Contrary to the prevailing argument that dismissing Galant and replacing him with Sa’ar will strengthen Netanyahu’s government coalition and enable it to continue the war indefinitely or until the end of its term in 2026, the political analyst estimated that the resignation of the defense minister during wartime is the beginning of the collapse of the right-wing government and its head Netanyahu, who is risking an endless war that may turn regional, for the sake of his personal interests and political considerations.
Netanyahu’s failure
From the Israeli point of view, Israeli writer Ben Dror Yemini, who is affiliated with the right-wing camp, described the dismissal of the defense minister during wartime as “an act of madness,” saying that “the prime minister intends to dismiss Galant, the last man in political power and government, who still enjoys some trust in Israel and the world.”
In an article in Yedioth Ahronoth, Yemini reviewed the reality that Israel has been living politically, socially and militarily since October 7 on the Gaza and northern fronts, saying, “It must be acknowledged that for the first time, the majority of Israeli society – whether from the right or the left or from the secular or the religious – is being trampled upon by a minority that has taken control of the reins of power in the government.”
He explained that all the decisions taken in the past two years bring Israel closer to complete collapse, saying that “Israel is living the most humiliating era in its history.”
He pointed out that “Netanyahu failed in the south on the Gaza front, where rockets continued to fall and Hamas was not defeated, and the kidnapped are dying, and it is not clear how many of them are alive. He also failed on the northern front with Hezbollah, and is looking to dismiss the Minister of Defense, and is threatening to launch a broad military campaign in Lebanon that could lead to a comprehensive confrontation and a regional war whose repercussions on Israeli national security cannot be known.”
Settling scores
Far from the scenario of a regional war, Yossi Verter, a party affairs analyst at Haaretz, wrote an article titled “Netanyahu seeks revenge on Galant, and Sa’ar is called upon to save the government of failure and massacre,” in which he reviewed the personal and political reasons that moved Netanyahu to dismiss Galant, as he sees him as a threat to him in the Likud Party and considers him a “collaborator” with the American administration.
Aside from the ambiguous personal relationship between the prime minister and the defense minister during the war, the party affairs analyst says, “The reason for Galant’s dismissal is personal. Netanyahu wants to take revenge on him and settle scores with him when he publicly came out against the government’s plan to reform the judicial system in March 2023, as well as because of his strong opposition to the bill exempting the Haredim from military service.”
Amid disagreements over hot issues and internal conflicts, Verter adds that Israel has reached a crossroads on the eve of what appears to be a slide into a war in Lebanon that could develop into a regional war. “The cabinet discussions are being postponed again and again because the prime minister is debating: Should we take the decisive step of dismissing Galant and replacing him with Sa’ar?”