Despite growing public anger in Morocco over Israel’s war on Gaza, the normalization deal between Morocco and Israel will likely be held, analysts told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Since the beginning of October, the streets of Morocco have been the scene of regular demonstrations, with thousands of people protesting against continued Israeli actions in Gaza. Among them are protesters unhappy with their government’s relations with Israel. In the capital, Rabat, thousands of people marched with Palestinian flags and signs calling for “resistance until victory,” “free Palestine” and “stop the normalization of the Moroccan government with Israel.”
The assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri on January 2 appeared to stoke existing anger over Israel’s continued assault on Gaza, which was reflected in the protests.
An unpopular agreement
Despite growing demands for stronger action from Islamist and left-wing groups, the Moroccan government continued to call for a ceasefire and reiterate its support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Israeli conflict. Palestinian, with officials reluctant to comment on areas of foreign tension. policy reserved for the king.
Morocco’s recognition of Israel came in late 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords, a 2020 US strategy that saw the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Sudan normalize relations with Israel in exchange for various concessions.
What Morocco wanted was for the United States to recognize its claims to the disputed Western Sahara territory and for Washington and Tel Aviv to strengthen trade and investment ties with the kingdom.
For Rabat, recognition of its claims to Western Sahara would give it an advantage in its zero-sum rivalry with regional enemy Algeria, which fiercely contests Morocco’s claims to that territory.
Nonetheless, public opinion toward Israel has rarely been warm in Morocco, as in many Arab states. In the period before normalization, very few Moroccans supported the idea and the vast majority told researchers that the Palestinian cause concerned all Arabs, not just Palestinians.
More than three years later, as the death toll in Gaza rises and stories of Israel’s war crimes dominate public debate, Rabat’s relations with Tel Aviv are under unprecedented strain.
Direct flights between Morocco and Israel, enabling tourism and giving many of the country’s approximately 2,500 indigenous Jews direct ties to family members, were canceled by Royal Air Maroc on October 19.
Israel’s liaison office in Rabat was evacuated around the same time while shops and restaurants catering to Israeli visitors in tourist centers like Marrakech closed their doors. The status of other projects, such as those on agriculture and desalination, is unknown.
“In terms of economic benefits, Israel has been much more successful in its partnership with, for example, the United Arab Emirates than with Morocco,” said Ken Katzman of the Soufan Center.
Stronger security links
Although commercial ties have been slow to take hold, ties have grown in the areas of security and defense.
A drone deal concluded in late 2022 for the purchase of 150 Israeli drones – some of which were to be assembled in Morocco – further tipped the balance of power in Western Sahara in favor of Morocco. Additionally, a deal reached last year for Israel to develop Moroccan surveillance satellites promises to realize this advantage.
Israeli Pegasus spyware technology has also provided an advantage, with Amnesty International reporting in 2022 that it was being used against militants in Western Sahara. Much of the West’s attention in the Maghreb is now focused on Algeria and its generous gas reserves, since previous supplies were disrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Morocco will have probably now needs its relations with Tel Aviv more.
“Military cooperation has become really crucial for Morocco,” Intissar Fakir, a senior analyst at the Middle East Institute, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“They managed to sign a series of agreements, not only for the supply of military technologies, but also for their manufacturing,” she said. “One of the main points to remember is that the military advantage that Morocco has been able to acquire in the short time that the agreement has come into force is substantial… (it) would be difficult for Morocco to withdraw from this partnership with Israel. »
Nevertheless, despite massive popular support for the king, criticism from the Moroccan people of relations with Israel continues.
The fact that Morocco has so far tried to ride out waves of fury over the war is perhaps the clearest indicator that it intends to stay the course, Fakir said. Regardless of the bloodshed, the war in Gaza may do nothing but slow, rather than stop, Israel’s gradual normalization with many other Arab states, Katzman added.
Relations with the United Arab Emirates appear barely affected, while negotiations on establishing similar relations with Saudi Arabia, a long-standing goal of American and Israeli diplomats, have reportedly only slowed down, rather than s “stop,” he said.
Whether anyone within the Trump administration ever imagined the current levels of destruction inflicted on Gaza by Israel, and how this might affect perceptions of the United States and its regional alliances, will likely remain an academic question. For the signatories themselves, the ability to justify normalization with Israel lies not in their own capitals, but in Tel Aviv and how long it chooses to maintain its current course.