The United States on Monday circulated a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council urging its members to support the three-phase ceasefire plan in Gaza announced last week by U.S. President Joe Biden.
Under the first stage of the plan – which Biden says is an Israeli proposal – a six-week ceasefire would be maintained, during which the Israeli military would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.
Some Israeli captives would also be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Civilians would be allowed to move across Gaza, including in the north, with 600 trucks transporting humanitarian aid into the enclave daily.
In the second phase, Hamas and Israel would negotiate terms for a permanent end to hostilities, although Biden said the ceasefire would continue “as long as negotiations continue.”
The third phase of the plan would include a permanent ceasefire, which would allow the reconstruction of the enclave, and a definitive end to a devastating war in which Israel has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians.
So, is the war over?
Not exactly.
While Biden presented the proposal as an Israeli peace plan, the reaction from Israeli leaders has been unclear. It appears the country’s coalition government is deeply divided – and perhaps permanently.
The two far-right cabinet members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, categorically rejected the proposal and threatened to overthrow the government.
Did Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brief far-right ministers first?
That does not appear to be the case, and Ben-Gvir said Netanyahu’s office has not drafted an agreement for him to read despite his promise to do so.
Netanyahu himself has tried to disassociate himself from the project, although the United States has repeatedly said the plan came from the Israeli side.
On Saturday, a day after Biden publicly announced the deal, Netanyahu interrupted the Jewish holy day, the Sabbath, to declare that any permanent ceasefire was “doomed to failure.”
“The conditions imposed by Israel to end the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and government capabilities, the release of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” he said. Netanyahu, reiterating a position that appears to contradict peace. proposal.
Netanyahu and the Israeli right appear particularly troubled by the second phase of the plan, in which their negotiators are still working with Hamas, a group that the United States says is so exhausted that it is no longer capable of repeating its attack from October 7. on Israel.
Can Netanyahu override his cabinet opponents and impose a ceasefire?
Leaving aside the question of whether Netanyahu himself has any desire to end this war, the prime minister will struggle to keep his coalition together if he agrees to a plan without the approval of his entire cabinet. government.
War cabinet member Benny Gantz – and potential Netanyahu replacement – did not oppose the proposal, and ultra-Orthodox politicians from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, both members of the governing coalition, also supported the proposal. ‘agreement.
Meanwhile, opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered to lend Netanyahu the votes he needs to push this issue through the Israeli parliament, or Knesset.
However, this would only give Netanyahu the seats he needs to pass ceasefire proposals, not the support he needs to retain his place as head of government.
For this, he still needs Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Many also suspect Netanyahu of wanting to continue the war to avoid the corruption charges he faces.
In fact, when asked if Netanyahu wanted to continue the war so he could stay in power, Biden responded by saying there was “every reason for people to draw that conclusion.”
So what do Smotrich and Ben-Gvir want?
In a word, colonize Gaza and force its population to “voluntarily emigrate”.
Taking to social media, Smotrich said he had “made it clear” to Netanyahu that he was not prepared to “be part of a government that would accept the proposed outlines and end the war without destroy Hamas and without returning all the hostages.”
Ben-Gvir wasn’t happy either. “If the Prime Minister implements this irresponsible deal under the conditions published today, which mean the end of the war and the abandonment of the elimination of Hamas, Jewish Power (his far-right party) will dissolve the government,” National Security said. the minister wrote.
Are Israel’s allies unhappy with the lack of engagement?
Allies – including the United States – are increasingly openly critical of Israel.
In addition to his attacks on Netanyahu’s priorities, Biden and other senior U.S. officials are increasingly issuing public statements that deviate from the Israeli line.
But there is a limit, and the Biden administration remains adamant that Hamas is responsible for the lack of progress on the peace deal, despite the Palestinian group’s positive response in its public statements, and the similarities between the plan announced by Biden and the plan Hamas said it accepted in early May.
Speaking on Monday, Biden “asserted that Hamas is now the only obstacle to a complete ceasefire.” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron struck a similar tone, saying that “the first thing is that Hamas has to accept this deal.” Germany, meanwhile, presented the deal as a beacon of hope to free captives held by Hamas and put an end to Palestinian deaths in Gaza.
Where did the ceasefire proposal originally come from?
If the United States is to be believed, it is Israel.
Tel Aviv Tribune’s inquiries to the US State Department regarding the source of these latest proposals went unanswered. Likewise, requests to consult the plan also elicited no response.
The plan was reportedly proposed by Israel’s three-man war cabinet in the middle of last week, with Netanyahu’s initial objections overcome by arguments from officials and the other two cabinet members.
And on Tuesday, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said it had received an Israeli proposal for an agreement for the release of captives held in Gaza that reflected the principles outlined by Biden.
Hamas now says it views the offer “positively”, with one senior official saying it would “accept this deal” if Israel did so. Hamas official Osama Hamdan said Tuesday that any agreement would have to include a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza – both of which are stipulated as part of the third phase of the proposal mooted by Biden.
