Occupied JerusalemThe Israeli front seemed to be in a state of confusion, as Hezbollah expanded its missile attacks to reach the Israeli depths, while the Israeli army faltered in the ground border incursion into southern Lebanon, amid confrontations and intense battles with the resistance.
The resistance’s missile force increased the complexity of the scene on the Israeli home front, after Hezbollah was able, yesterday evening, Sunday, to launch a swarm of explosive drones, and the Israeli Air Force’s defensive system failed to intercept them.
One Hezbollah march was able to fly about 60 kilometers in Israeli airspace, hide from radars, infiltrate the Golani Brigade base near Binyamina, south of Haifa, and explode, leading to the killing of 4 soldiers and the injury of about 60 others.
With the escalation of the missile barrages launched daily from Lebanese territory, reaching a range beyond Haifa, and causing direct hits on military installations, Hezbollah’s resistance to confronting the Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon seemed more fierce and painful for the Israeli army.
Amidst the state of confusion and increased fears of the lack of preparedness of the home front, there are some Israeli analysts who believe that these developments on the ground, and Hezbollah’s restoration of its missile capabilities and deterrent power, have contributed to mixing up the cards of the Israeli establishment regarding the strategy drawn up for the Third Lebanon War scenario.
Analysts also believed that these developments, and the decline in the effectiveness and effectiveness of Tel Aviv’s tactical achievements in assassinations, require Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reconsider Israeli calculations in Lebanon.
Lebanese polytheism
It is clear that these circumstances may allow Israel to seek a new political settlement, mediated by the United States and the United Nations, and attempt to end the war in the north within a few weeks, but Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel says, “It is doubtful that this will be the case.” “What will happen?”
The military analyst believes that these developments serve Netanyahu’s vision known as “eternal war,” which means that the Israeli attacks on Lebanon will become more ferocious, with a coalition at his side promoting dangerous ideas, which would exacerbate Israel’s problems and involve it in a regional war.
What is now emerging from Hezbollah’s arsenal and missile capabilities reveals, according to the military analyst, that “the scale of the threat prepared in southern Lebanon was more serious than that prepared in the Gaza Strip, and therefore it is likely that the heads of the councils and their residents will demand that the Israeli army continue its incursion into Inland, deeper into southern Lebanon, in order to remove additional risks.”
But the fear at the level of the northern front with Lebanon is that behind every sector of the villages that will be penetrated in southern Lebanon, there is another threat, as there are more anti-tank missiles with a range of up to 10 kilometers, more short-range Katyusha missiles, and more unity force bases. Al-Ridwan, which means falling into the Lebanese trap.
Eternal war
Commenting on the news about the agreement between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu to stop raids on the capital, Beirut, the same analyst suggested that this is due to the ammunition economy policy, and falls within the Israeli Air Force’s preparations to strike targets in Iran.
The military analyst said, “It is interesting that even the United States does not currently appear to be pressuring Israel to quickly end the military campaign in Lebanon, and this of course serves Netanyahu’s vision of a war without end. Rocket attacks have become a reality in the lives of Israelis, as a third of the country’s territory is exposed to bombardment with missiles and missiles.” Every day and no one cares.”
It also appears that the Biden administration, which had tried – until the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah – to impose an immediate ceasefire on the parties, had reached the conclusion that it would be difficult to dictate a similar step now, which would cause a shock in the Lebanese political system. “And creating a state of chaos controlled by Hezbollah.”
The Israeli Channel 12 correspondent for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs, Sapir Lipkin, believes that the specific missile attacks launched by Hezbollah, and the widening range of fire and launching of missiles and marches, require Israel to reconsider its calculations regarding the strategy and the conduct of the war on the front with Lebanon.
The Israeli correspondent suggested that the march attack on the Golani Brigade base south of Haifa, and the escalation of the pace of missile attacks deep inside Israel by launching hundreds of rockets daily, is an attempt by Hezbollah to impose a new equation in the fighting, the essence of which is “Haifa’s fate is like the fate of Kiryat Shmona.”
Sapir adds that it must be clear that “a settlement is not on the agenda currently. No one has broad lines for a settlement or the day after the war, neither in Gaza nor in Lebanon. The time has not yet come to achieve that. Hezbollah is already dreaming of a ceasefire, but Only if Israel agrees to return to Security Council Resolution No. 1701, and not to the previous Resolution No. 1559, which stipulated its disarmament.”
Remove gloves
For his part, Professor Eyal Zisser – an expert in Middle East and African affairs and Vice President of Tel Aviv University – seemed more clear about the Israeli strategy regarding Lebanon following the specific attacks by Hezbollah, and he believes that “Israel is obligated to reconsider the strategy, and strike the state of Lebanon if it wants to defeat Hezbollah.” God”.
The expert in Middle East affairs justified this proposal in an article in the newspaper “Israel Today”, saying that “Hezbollah, despite the strikes it received from Israel, still has the ability to pose a strategic threat to Israel, and it still enjoys the support of various sects in Lebanon.”
The Israeli expert believes that Hezbollah also has a strategic depth with the Middle East, a depth that Hamas does not possess, and of course, Zisser adds, “it has geographical connectivity with neighboring Syria, to which it delivers arms shipments from Iran.”
He concluded by saying, “Israel must take off its gloves and attack Lebanon as well, both the army and government institutions, as well as the infrastructure used by Hezbollah. Not for the sake of revenge or in order to achieve deterrence, but as part of a smart and organized management of the military campaign against Hezbollah.”
