Beirut, Lebanon – Yemen’s Houthis struck a US ship on Monday, a day after attacking a US Navy destroyer in the Red Sea, indicating the group will not be deterred by recent US and UK air attacks against Yemen.
Not only have the Houthis seen a surge in popularity domestically, but they have also found solidarity within what is known as the resistance axis of Iranian-backed groups in the region. They were already infuriated by Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 24,000 people, mostly civilians.
And as the war on Gaza continues, the possibility of a confluence of clashes also increases, experts told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“Yemen is now becoming a participant in the regional escalation linked to the Gaza war,” said Raiman al-Hamdani, a researcher at ARK Group, a Dubai-based social enterprise that offers strategic management services.
A climbing loop
The Houthis control western Yemen, including the strategically valuable Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which leads to the Red Sea and up to the Suez Canal.
They claim they are intercepting Israeli-bound or Israeli-owned ships passing through Bab al-Mandeb to pressure Israel to cease fire in Gaza or at least allow humanitarian aid to arrive. sufficient.
But they now appear to have expanded their operations after hitting a US ship sailing in the Gulf of Aden, in at least their second attack on a ship off Yemen’s southern coast.
So far, Houthi interceptions have not caused any casualties in the Red Sea. But that could change if American or British soldiers were hit directly.
“In such a scenario, retaliation in Yemen would take a much more aggressive approach,” al-Hamdani said.
And this could further inflame tensions regionally.
As the war progresses, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have targeted American bases, and the United States responded by assassinating Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi, aka Abu Taqwa, the leader of Harakat al-Nujaba , an Iranian-backed militia in Baghdad. .
The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has exchanged drone and rocket attacks with Israel.
“We are in the middle of an escalation loop,” said Nicholas Brumfield, a Yemen researcher. “It’s hard not to see a broader regional escalation. »
US President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly said it is trying to avoid an escalation of regional tensions.
Yet critics say his words ring hollow because he twice bypassed the U.S. Congress to send weapons to Israel rather than condition aid or take steps that would encourage a ceasefire.
“If the United States and the United Kingdom respond to the continued escalation of the Houthis with more airstrikes on Yemen, it will impact regional security, including in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” he said. Hannah Porter, a Yemen researcher, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“Even if these countries do not wish to return to military engagement with the Houthis, the current escalation could change that calculus. »
Saudi Arabia is working to consolidate a ceasefire with the Houthis to end Yemen’s decade-long civil war, while Riyadh appears determined to avoid a resumption of past Houthi attacks that disrupted its oil production.
But the exchange of attacks in the Red Sea could derail the peace process.
“The Houthis are playing with fire, and one wrong move could have serious consequences,” al-Hamdani said. “However, this seems unlikely as the Houthis and Saudis as well as the US and UK want to end the state of war they find themselves in. »
Steady intensification of attacks in the Red Sea
Although the Houthis have yet to suffer any casualties, their actions have disrupted global shipping via the Red Sea, prompting the US and UK to decide to attack Yemen.
“The United States and the United Kingdom felt like they were backed into a corner and didn’t really have any other choice,” Porter said.
“They have been threatening the Houthis to target ships in the Red Sea for some time now, and those threats were starting to seem very redundant and very unfounded. »
On Wednesday, the Houthis fired 21 drones and missiles into the Red Sea, which US and British naval forces repelled. The next day, American and British forces bombed several sites in Yemen.
The United States said the attacks destroyed a quarter of the Houthis’ ability to target ships, but the group was not deterred. On the contrary, attacks could well intensify, according to Yemen analysts.
“The Houthis have no intention of stopping their attacks on the Red Sea,” Porter said.
“We will likely see further escalation by the Houthis and the same pattern of intercepted attacks and near misses of military and civilian vessels. »
The US and UK retaliation appears to have only emboldened the Houthis and strengthened their support, as a rally of hundreds of thousands of people showed on Friday in the capital, Sanaa.
“This is the ‘Big Bad’ that the Houthis have been rhetorically preparing to fight for 20 years,” Brumfield said. “‘Death to Israel’ is on the (Houthi) flag, but ‘Death to America’ is first.”
The only victims of these clashes are in reality the Houthis. On December 31, four Houthi ships attempted to commandeer a ship crossing the Red Sea, and U.S. helicopters attacked them, killing 10 fighters and sinking three boats.
Thrive in War, Fight in Peace
The Houthis have always been in opposition in Yemen and have spent most of their time in the spotlight fighting against the Yemeni government.
They overthrew Yemen’s internationally recognized president, Abd Rabbu Hadi, in 2014 and have been fighting Yemen’s civil war ever since.
Hadi had the support of Saudi Arabia, which for a time led an Arab coalition to fight the Houthis.
A truce has been in effect since April 2022 as talks progress between the Houthis and Riyadh on a more permanent ceasefire.
Currently, Yemen analysts are divided on whether the Houthis want all hostilities to cease and whether they would stop their interceptions in the Red Sea if a ceasefire is declared in Gaza.
Many believe the Houthis would continue their operations while a few pointed out that the Houthis had respected the last ceasefire in late November between Israel and Hamas.
“The Houthis want this type of military engagement because they are a group that functions well in war and have actually not been tested in peacetime,” Porter said.
“Their capacities for good governance are not great. »
But while this may serve the Houthis’ national and regional goals, Yemen’s population will likely suffer.
“Unfortunately, for those living under their control in what is described as ‘the world’s largest humanitarian catastrophe,’ the consequences would be devastating,” al-Hamdani said.