Beirut, Lebanon – Recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have helped the group boost domestic recruitment and mobilize large rallies in the capital, Sanaa. Analysts say the attacks have given the group a boost after its popularity took a hit in recent months.
But they also warn that domestic moves by the emboldened group could threaten Yemen’s fragile peace, as talks for a ceasefire after a decade-long war appear to be gaining momentum.
The Houthis say their attacks in the Red Sea target ships linked to Israel or allies and aim to pressure Israel to end its devastating war on Gaza, which has killed more than 22,000 people since October 7.
It’s a message that seems to have resonated with many Yemenis.
Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, held a rally in Sanaa in support of Gaza on Friday, attracting millions of Yemenis, according to a Houthi-affiliated media outlet. Footage from the event showed a crowded al-Sabeen Square, where protesters waved Palestinian and Yemeni flags. The mobilization took place as the Houthis continued to send missiles and drones into the Red Sea, defying threats of increased military action from the United States.
Faced with increased tensions on this key shipping lane, international shipping companies have decided to avoid the Red Sea and bypass the southern coast of Africa, adding about nine days to their journey and increasing costs by at least 15 to hundred. Danish shipping giant Maersk announced on Friday that it would avoid the Red Sea for the foreseeable future.
Not discouraged by the American coalition
In December, the United States established Operation Prosperity Guardian, a 10-nation coalition that originally included the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway , Spain, Seychelles and Bahrain.
Their apparent objective? Prevent the Houthis from targeting commercial ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage leading to the Red Sea and further to the Suez Canal. On November 19, the Houthis took control of the Galaxy Leader and turned it into a tourist attraction for Yemenis.
But the Houthis were not deterred. They continued to target commercial traffic in the Red Sea. On December 31, four Houthi ships attempted to commandeer a ship crossing the Red Sea when U.S. Navy helicopters attacked them, killing 10 Houthi fighters and sinking three boats.
On Wednesday, the United States and its allies announced what they see as a final warning to the Houthis to stop attacking the ships. But at Friday’s rally, the Houthis appeared defiant, as a warplane flew over the country, leaders paid tribute to the group’s martyrs and said they were ready for military escalation by states -United.
“The Houthis appear immune to Western and American pressure,” Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
End of ceasefire
The Palestinian cause is extremely popular among Yemenis. But before their attacks on ships in the Red Sea, some analysts said the Houthis had struggled to pay salaries and attract new recruits.
This changed after the Houthis began attacking ships. Recruitment has increased in recent months as young Yemenis eagerly sign up in hopes of fighting for the Palestinian cause. The group has recently trained more than 20,000 new fighters, according to Yemeni researcher Nicholas Brumfield. He added that the class was named after Hamas’ October 7 mission, Al-Aqsa Flood.
“Attacks on Israel and maritime targets in the Red Sea promote internal support and recruitment for the Houthis, diverting attention from social and economic failures,” said Eleonora Ardemagni, senior associate researcher in Yemen. the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). “A direct confrontation with the United States will likely have the same effect. »
A decade-long war with a Saudi-backed coalition that supports Yemen’s internationally recognized government has dampened enthusiasm for the group. A truce came into effect in October 2022 and the parties have been in ceasefire talks ever since. Both sides appear to have made serious progress and an end to hostilities is in sight, the United Nations announced at the end of December. But analysts say the Houthis’ recent actions mean a final deal could still be derailed.
“Their actions continue to foreshadow an escalation that could easily trigger a more aggressive US military response, which could in turn undermine the fragile conditions of the ceasefire,” Vakil said.
Brumfield added that “it wouldn’t be the first time that there was progress and it all fell apart at the last minute.”
A shaky truce
The ceasefire could be threatened if the Houthis decide to launch a new internal offensive, a prospect some analysts see as a real possibility.
In February 2021, the Houthis launched an offensive to seize Marib, the last bastion of the internationally recognized Yemeni government. The city was the scene of active fighting until the truce was announced in October 2022. But in recent weeks, the Houthis have taken advantage of their recent increase in recruitment by deploying 50,000 troops around Marib, raising fears of a resumption hostilities.
“We’ve seen a very heavy concentration of forces there over the last couple of months,” Brumfield said. “Over the last week, they have deployed even more forces to this location. »
He warned that the period of relative calm in Yemen could soon end. The Houthis appear to be in a position to face possible confrontations on the national and regional fronts – on land and at sea.
“Over the last 18 months, Yemen has been relatively calm and that’s a good thing,” Brumfield said. “It’s just about ironing out how this war can end, and it could very easily go another direction.”