Occupied Jerusalem- The atmosphere in the political arena in Israel seemed foggy, on the eve of the expiration of the deadline set by the head of the “National Camp”, Benny Gantz, who threatened to withdraw from the emergency government and the war council if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not agree to reach a deal to exchange and return detainees.
Attention turns to the evening of Saturday, June 8th. The deadline for Gantz’s withdrawal, which – during a press conference on May 18 – gave Netanyahu three weeks to present a series of plans regarding the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, the return of detainees, the “day after the war,” and the situation on the northern front.
The political map in Israel is in a state of alert until the end of the Sabbath holiday, as estimates are unanimous in the “National Camp” that Gantz will submit his resignation unless there are surprises with Netanyahu accepting the deal, which means Gantz will withdraw from his withdrawal.
Realistic scenario
This comes at a time when the threats of the leader of the “Jewish Greatness” party, Itamar Ben Gvir, and the head of “Religious Zionism,” Bezalel Smotrich, are escalating to dismantle the far-right government, which relies on 64 members of the Knesset, and to go to early elections, if Netanyahu agrees to any deal. leading to stopping the war.
Readings from political analysts suggest that the “National Camp” will withdraw from the emergency government, in what appears to be the realistic scenario that will be implemented, but with many internal and external considerations for Gantz that may push him to back down from his threat and ultimatum.
These estimates unanimously agreed that Gantz, who restricted himself to the deadline he set, and linked this to the Haredi recruitment law, and also set 6 conditions for remaining in the emergency government, will be subject to developments on the ground and escalation on the northern front with Lebanon, and subject to the continuation of the ceasefire negotiations and the exchange deal, amid Strengthening views that the conduct of the war should not be left in the hands of Smotrich and Ben Gvir.
The political analyst believes For the Zaman Yisrael website, Shalom Yerushalmi, Gantz is convinced that his time in this government is over. He said that Gantz’s main argument isGadi Eisenkot Minister in the War Council, is that they have lost their influence, and that Netanyahu has become a hostage in the grip of the extreme right that Smotrich and Ben Gvir are tightening on him.
But in the analyst’s opinion, the dominance and influence of these two ministers on the political scene in the shadow of the war may be an excellent reason for Gantz to remain in the emergency government and the war council, and to free Netanyahu as much as possible from the grip of the “extremist” partners, and not leave full influence in their hands to manage the war and the future of Israel.
Alternatives
Yerushalmi suggested that Gantz would take into consideration – before making his decision to withdraw – that Israel is in the midst of a difficult war on two fronts, and negotiations regarding the detainees’ deal, and that these are decisive days in which it will be decided whether Tel Aviv will also wage an all-out war in Lebanon.
He explained that Gantz and Eisenkot know that Smotrich and Ben Gvir belong to a “messianic” group that does not necessarily have a rational consideration. He believes that the war in Lebanon could last several months and turn into a comprehensive regional campaign. This is not the right time to start a war in the north as long as they are in Gaza, and no one knows how and when it will end, or what the price Israel will pay.
Under the title, “After insulting them and even inciting against them, Netanyahu misses Gantz and Eisenkot,” party affairs analyst in the Haaretz newspaper, Yossi Verter, wrote an article in which he reviewed the scenarios that the political and party arena in Israel will witness with the expiration of the deadline set by Gantz.
In Werther’s estimation, the withdrawal of the “National Camp” from the emergency government and the war council is a possible scenario, assuming that a comprehensive war does not break out on the northern front with Hezbollah, or if a deal is reached to release the Israeli detainees.
He explained that the withdrawal of Gantz and the “National Camp” would delegitimize and dispel the immunity enjoyed by the Netanyahu government, which would lose its credibility before the international community, and would lose the character that helped it appear “more responsible, balanced, less extremist, and less messianic.”
If Gantz withdraws, the party affairs analyst believes that the political landscape in Israel – as it was during the eight months of the war on Gaza – will change significantly, as the circle of protests demanding the overthrow of the Netanyahu government, the dissolution of the Knesset, and heading for early elections will expand.
Surprises and intrigues
Tal Shilo, political affairs analyst at the Walla website, says: If there are no dramatic surprises at the last minute, and this should not be ruled out in the volatile and chaotic reality in which Israel is living, Gantz will, on Saturday evening, stand behind the podium and deliver his final speech as a minister in the emergency government.
“Israel before everything,” Gantz tweeted shortly after signing the agreement with Netanyahu on October 11, 2023, and it is the same tweet – remember Shilo – that he tweeted on March 26, 2020, when the “Blue and White” party dissolved and formed With Netanyahu, the emergency government to confront the Corona pandemic.
As is the case before and now in light of the war on the Gaza Strip, Shilo says, “Former Chief of Staff Gantz, armed with another reserve weapon, whether it was Gabi Ashkenazi or Gadi Eisenkot, was unable to stand idly by to save Israel in an emergency.”
But she believes that Israel has not changed from the 2020 version to the 2024 version, considering that “the conspiracy unfolded further, as shortly after Gantz gave Netanyahu a lifeline and immunity, the prime minister got tired of him and began violating the agreement, which may push Gantz to withdraw, just as “It happened with the Corona pandemic.”