Two experts suggested that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken would fail to achieve the goals he had during his visit to Israel, due to the lack of an Israeli vision and consensus on the post-war stage in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli affairs expert Dr. Muhannad Mustafa said that the Israeli internal factor that refuses to envision a post-war era will thwart Blinken’s visit to the region, noting that Washington supports Tel Aviv, but the latter obstructs the former’s directions.
Mustafa pointed out – during his talk on the program “Gaza… What Next?” – that there are several trends in the Israeli government, as the extremist duo Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are adopting the displacement of the population of Gaza and resettlement there, while Defense Minister Yoav Galant speaks of a Palestinian civil administration while insisting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza.
He stressed that Washington realizes that there is no solution to the Israeli dilemma except by changing Netanyahu’s government and forming a new government, speaking about demands for Benny Gantz’s withdrawal from the war council.
Mustafa added that setting any Israeli political vision for the Gaza Strip in agreement with Washington would lead to the dismantling of the government, and pointed out that Netanyahu is leading the war for his interests and has now become a weak prime minister after becoming a prisoner of the extreme right.
He stressed that Israel fears American pressure, because it will affect the Netanyahu government, whose behavior is confirmed to be ideological, ruling out US President Joe Biden imposing sanctions and strong political positions against Israel, such as not using the veto.
He pointed out that there were reviews within the former Israeli military elite regarding the goals of the war, as they believed that they were unrealistic, and he reported the formation of an internal bloc demanding a ceasefire and the necessity of resolving the prisoner issue.
Two goals for Blinken’s visit
In turn, former US State Department official Bartik Theros believes that Blinken has two goals: the first is to reduce the intensity of fighting in the northern Gaza Strip, not a ceasefire, and the second is to prevent the outbreak of war between Israel and Lebanon.
He explained that Netanyahu would not dare to stop the war because of his far-right allies, for fear that his political future would end and he would go to prison, before adding that the former also could not rebel against a firm American position if Biden demanded to stop the war.
Theros pointed out that US President Joe Biden is betting on his Secretary of State in his visit to the region “without giving him the necessary tools,” indicating that unless he does so, the situation will remain as it is and the war will continue.
He touched on the withdrawal of the aircraft carrier from the eastern Mediterranean, and said that it was a signal to Netanyahu that Washington would not support him if he launched a war on Lebanon, even though Biden has an attachment to Israel and it is difficult for him to get rid of this feeling.
He believed that if the Netanyahu government fell as a result of internal popular pressure, it would be great for the Israelis and Palestinians, pointing out that Biden is trying to find a way to change his declared position without appearing so.
It is noteworthy that Blinken preceded his visit to Israel by saying that he would talk about “the future of the military campaign in Gaza,” and the need for the West Bank and Gaza to be united under Palestinian leadership, and stressed that escalation is not in the interest of any party, whether Israel or Lebanon.