Analysts say a Labour-led government could bring new stability to Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the European Union.
Brexit has dominated British politics for most of a decade, but the topic has become almost taboo as the UK prepares for Thursday’s general election.
“Both main parties have tried to discuss Brexit as little as possible“, Joel Reland, researcher at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, told Euronews.Voters were quite disappointed with what was done, so Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak does not want to draw attention to that.“.
“And for Labour, Keir Starmer is trying to win back seats in the ‘Red Wall’, which voted to leave the EU in 2016.” he added, referring to Labour’s heartland seats in the traditionally working-class Midlands and northern England, which defected en masse to the Conservatives at the last election in 2019.
But as the Labour Party is now about to enter government for the first time in 14 years – and with its leader Keir Starmer vowing to roll back parts of the UK’s post-Brexit deal – the vote could also open a new chapter in EU-UK relations.
Mr Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU’s single market for goods and services or the customs union, and will not restore freedom of movement. He has also been vague about which aspects of EU-UK cooperation he would renegotiate, although his closest aides have suggested they could include chemicals regulation, financial services and establishing a link to the EU’s emissions trading scheme (ETS).
If Mr Starmer gets the keys to 10 Downing Street, experts say, he may struggle to reopen the deal in a way that is acceptable to both Brussels and his domestic electorate.
“When you get into the details of what they (Labour) want to do, it’s generally relatively minor things and even some of them would probably be very difficult to negotiate with the EU.” said Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform (CER).
In defining its red lines, namely not joining the single market or the customs union, or allowing free movement, the British opposition “got into a dead end“, Mr Bond added. He said the party had limited its room for manoeuvre and its ability to negotiate a better deal with the EU.
Brussels could also seek concessions from the UK in exchange for a revised deal in some areas. One such concession could be the youth mobility deal proposed by the European Commission last April, which would restore the ability for young Britons and Europeans to travel, work and study freely on either side.
“The problem is that Labour has ruled out any deal on youth mobility for now.“, explains Mr. Reland.But I think if they want to get a deal with Brussels, they’ll probably have to be a little more flexible.“.
“Fertile ground” for security and defence cooperation
The next British prime minister is expected to meet his European counterparts shortly after the vote, first at the NATO summit in Washington from July 9 to 11. He will then host around 40 European leaders, including the 27 heads of state and government of the European Union, at Blenheim Palace on July 18 for a summit of the European Political Community.
The forum, which was the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, is one of the few summits where the UK has had direct access to all EU and member state leaders since leaving the Union.
One area where both sides will want to strengthen ties is security and defense, with a possible defense pact on the table.
The 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement contains few security provisions. With war raging on Europe’s doorstep and the spectre of Donald Trump’s return looming over the White House, it makes strategic sense for both sides to support each other in strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities.
“All these questions about European security have become much more pointed and much more worrying.“, Olivia O’Sullivan, director of the UK in the World programme at Chatham House, told Euronews.
“The UK may have had a difficult relationship with the EU in the years since, but it has one of Europe’s largest militaries, regularly spends over 2% of its GDP on defence as a member of NATO, and cooperates very closely with major groups like the Baltic and Nordic states when it comes to defence.” she added.
“The UK is part of the European security puzzle”
The UK vote coincides with the start of a new political term in the EU, in which plans to strengthen the EU’s collective defence industries are expected to be a top strategic priority.
The Union has already taken important steps to strengthen its defence industrial capabilities and is expected to appoint a Commissioner to lead these efforts over the next five-year term.
“Much of the EU’s recent initiatives and projects in this area have focused on strengthening defence industrial production.“, Mr O’Sullivan explained.But many of these initiatives and projects do not include third countries. They are deliberately focused on industries in EU member states. So it will be difficult to negotiate whether the UK can or wants to be part of them.“.
Brussels may be more inclined to rely on the UK as a partner in defence preparedness, particularly because of concerns that Eurosceptic political forces, historically supportive of Russia, are gaining influence across the Union.
The British election comes ahead of the two rounds of early parliamentary elections in France, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party currently leading the race after winning more than 33% of the vote in the first round on Sunday.
Even if it manages to form a government, the far right would have little ability to shape France’s foreign or defense policy, which is considered the preserve of the president. Mr. Macron is expected to retain the presidency until 2027.
But the growing popularity of the National Rally, which wants to reduce French military support for Ukraine, has sounded alarm bells in Brussels.
In contrast, the British elections are likely to produce a resolutely pro-Ukrainian government, with both the Conservatives and Labour having pledged to support Kyiv militarily.
“The fact that the British are as closely involved as possible with what the rest of Europe is doing will be particularly important if we end up with a rather unpredictable and erratic Trump as president in the United States.“, said Ian Bond.For Brussels, I think the watchword will be stability.“.