Political analysts unanimously agree that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the one who shapes Tel Aviv’s policies and is stubborn in concluding new normalization agreements, while one of them stressed that Saudi Arabia cannot provide free normalization, especially after last October 7.
In this context, the writer specializing in Israeli affairs, Ihab Jabareen, says that Israel is based on the vision that normalization with the countries of the region is important, but not at any price, indicating that it tried to diminish the Palestinian issue in exchange for the path of regional normalization.
He added, during his speech on the program “Gaza… What Next?”, that “Israel 2024” does not resemble “Israel 2011” when Netanyahu concluded an exchange deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to recover soldier Gilad Shalit.
He pointed out that Israel is using the file of normalization with Saudi Arabia to enter deep into the Arab world, revealing that before October 7, it did not want a two-state solution and was moving towards bi-nationalism in parallel with the practice of systematic apartheid.
According to Jabareen, the populist right or the “strategic right” in Israel “cannot accept normalization deals in exchange for the establishment of a Palestinian state, as the former seeks to reach the stage of ending the conflict while the other wants the continuity of conflict management.”
Also, the scope for the opposition’s support for Netanyahu in exchange for moving forward with the normalization deal with Saudi Arabia is narrow, according to the Israeli affairs expert, who said that the corresponding price would be to give the two extremist ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and the Haredim prices within the West Bank, which complicates the normalization deal.
Jabareen believes that Tel Aviv is trying to postpone these fateful decisions to a more stable stage, adding that Netanyahu is stalling until former US President Donald Trump returns to power, as he has been betting on that since the first day of the war.
“No normalization for free”
In turn, the head of the Al-Madar Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Dr. Saleh Al-Mutairi, says that Saudi Arabia has internal and regional challenges in light of the Iranian nuclear project, and it cannot go to free normalization without achieving an Arab demand.
Al-Mutairi stressed that the problem lies with Netanyahu and his government composed of the far right, as no Israeli minister dares to talk about a Palestinian state or the possibility of its establishment, especially after October 7, 2023.
He acknowledged that Israel succeeded, through the Abraham Accords, in transforming the equation from “land for peace” to “peace for peace,” noting that the alternative to Israel’s intransigence is to go to a security, trade, and technological agreement with the United States, with a clause indicating the possibility of other countries joining later. .
Al-Mutairi described the matter as important for the administration of US President Joe Biden, which is trying to curb Iranian, Russian and Chinese influence.
He pointed out that there is a “holy trinity” regarding the Saudi-American talks, as there is talk of a security and trade agreement between the two countries, in addition to the normalization of relations with Israel, in addition to the dilemma of establishing a Palestinian state or an irrevocable promise regarding that.
Despite the importance of the agreements being talked about, Saudi Arabia – according to the Gulf affairs expert – has other options or maneuvers with the United States, which delays reaching these agreements.
Washington’s position
For his part, former US State Department official William Lawrence praised the improvement in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the ongoing discussions towards normalization, but he stressed that Netanyahu is the one standing in the way of these efforts.
Lawrence added that, when talking about the day after the war, it is necessary to address the Palestinian state and the possibility of its establishment, noting that a ceasefire cannot be achieved in Gaza without a serious discussion about the Palestinian issue.
He pointed out that the Republican Party in America is aligned with the Israeli right, while the Democratic Party is divided within itself and is content with some good words about the Palestinian issue and soft pressure on Israel.
He concluded that Washington must talk about the future of the Palestinians even if the Israelis do not respond, and put its weight into stopping the process of displacement and ethnic expulsion from Gaza and the West Bank.