The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), headquartered in Washington, DC, published a detailed report in an attempt to answer the frequently asked question: What does it mean to destroy Hamas?
The report was prepared by two authors who are experts in international conflicts: David Aliberti, an expert in the Center’s International Security Program, and Daniel Byman, a researcher with the Transnational Threats Project and a professor at Georgetown University.
The report begins by presenting the consensus in the reaction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden towards the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation carried out by the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, on October 7.
After the attack, the occupation declared that the Hamas movement must be destroyed and its threats must be put to a final end, while Biden stressed the necessity of completely eliminating the movement.
Here the two writers present 3 options related to destroying Hamas:
- The first: An attempt to kill – or arrest – Hamas leaders and eliminate the broader support networks on which they depend.
- Second: Destroying Hamas’ grip on power by strengthening its rivals and allowing them to dislodge the group.
- Third: An attempt to confront Hamas’s ideology, which encourages violent “resistance” to Israel.
The authors believe that all of these options are difficult to achieve, and each of them is surrounded by great challenges.
First: Eliminating the Hamas leadership and its support networks
Israel launched air strikes and ground operations for more than 70 days, aiming to destroy Hamas, and Israeli officials estimate – according to the report – that thousands of Hamas fighters were killed.
But he adds that despite the huge losses in terms of numbers, the movement is still far from being defeated, let alone destroyed.
- 1- A well-established movement that will not disappear
The report quotes statements by French President Emmanuel Macron in which he said that if Israel maintains its goal of destroying Hamas at the same pace, this war will take 10 years.
Macron’s forecast may be optimistic, given the early results and historical precedents of trying to destroy entrenched insurgencies.
An example of this type of fighting is when the United States began military operations to remove the Taliban from power and destroy Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001.
American forces killed thousands of militants and dozens of leaders, including Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in 2011, but the war against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and Al-Qaeda continued for another ten years.
When US forces left Afghanistan, the Taliban were victorious, while Al-Qaeda remained intact, although much weaker.
- 2- Targeting leaders is more difficult
It is also difficult to target leaders in particular, as it took the United States 10 years to track down and eliminate bin Laden, and the same was true for his successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who led the organization for another 11 years, until he was assassinated on July 31, 2022.
Therefore, pursuing the leaders of the first ranks of Hamas and the Al-Qassam Brigades constitutes a major and difficult challenge for the Israeli army, especially with the presence of a complex and fortified network of tunnels.
Despite this, Hamas has a deep presence rooted in the Palestinian people. During the second intifada, it repeatedly lost its top leaders, including its founder. However, it has managed to hold on, and was quickly able to gain power in Gaza once the Israeli forces left.
Its current situation is much better than it was. Its administration spanning more than 15 years has increased its presence and deepened its relationship with the people. As a result, Hamas can easily return to power once the Israeli forces leave.
- 3- The ability to recruit new elements
In addition, the number of Hamas fighters is not constant, and they can rely on Palestinians in Gaza to fill their ranks. The movement has not been unable to recruit, and the devastation caused by the Israeli aggression is likely to ensure that there is an abundance of angry Palestinian youth ready to fight.
We should not rule out the possibility that continued aggression will lead to an expansion of the conflict, if the movement’s allies assess that it is approaching defeat. They may join the fight against Israel.
Also to refute this point, the number of civilian casualties according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip is equivalent to many times the deaths of Al-Qassam fighters, and this percentage is neither promising nor reassuring, and does not pave the way for the success of the primary goal of the Israeli occupation army.
What is almost certain is that the number of Palestinian casualties has already shifted global public opinion against Israel, and in favor of the Palestinians, and it has also created tension with the Biden administration, the strongest and most important supporter of Israel.
Second: Destroying Hamas’ grip on power by strengthening alternative groups
The second point lies in enabling an alternative leadership to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which President Biden promoted, and Arab countries could enter into this file, and in addition, the United Nations and the international community could have a role in this matter.
- 1- Replacing the Hamas authority
In this scenario, the idea is not to destroy Hamas outright, but to replace its political authority in Gaza, greatly reducing its overall power.
The authors believe that replacing Hamas politically is difficult, as its deep roots in Gaza allow it to mobilize support throughout the Strip.
Any contender must gain support among ordinary Palestinians in Gaza and possess the military power necessary to suppress Hamas forces while challenging the authority of the alternative.
The Palestinian Authority – according to the report – does not seem to be an ideal option in this case, as it is weak and corrupt, and its credibility in the West Bank is at stake, as in the eyes of many Palestinians it is a “servant of the Israeli occupation.”
If the Palestinian Authority seizes power in Gaza on the back of an Israeli tank, it will lose more credibility and will not be able to confront Hamas in Gaza alone, and therefore, it will need continuous Israeli support.
The alternative is for the Palestinian Authority to work with Hamas, which must be part of the Palestinian future in this movement, and both Israel and the United States will reject this position.
Therefore, any settlement with the Palestinian Authority will not lead to the elimination of Hamas and is untenable from the Israeli point of view, because it will legitimize the movement, which will be the largest partner in any relationship with the Authority in Gaza.
- 3- Arab and international reluctance
As for the Arab countries, they do not have much interest in intervening, their capabilities are limited, and it is not easy for any Arab regime to appear before its people as supporting Israel and helping it in the war against Hamas.
Likewise, international forces will be adrift in Gaza, will have little knowledge of the people and will be considered occupiers.
Third: Confronting Hamas’ ideology
Another concept of defeat involves fighting Hamas’ ideology in the practical practice of governance.
The complexity in this matter lies in the approach adopted by Hamas in the special blend between political Islam and Palestinian nationalism.
- 1- The embodiment of resistance
Hamas seeks to embody “resistance”, which is based on challenging Israel militarily so that the Palestinians can obtain their rights. This gives the movement unlimited popular support, making the idea of its destruction an inspiring matter for the people to stand by it and support it at an unlimited pace.
Currently, no anti-Hamas ideology is widely accepted among Palestinians. Traditional nationalism, embodied by the Fatah movement, has been declining for years, and after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Hamas’s popularity increased, while its competitors declined significantly.
- 2- Rising popularity
Worse still for Israel is that the “resistance” ideology is becoming more popular, with reliable polls showing that Hamas is much more popular among Palestinians.
Hamas has dealt a heavy blow to Israel, seen as a catharsis for many Palestinians who feel humiliated by the ongoing Israeli occupation.
- 3- Huge losses
In addition, the heavy civilian casualties and destruction caused by the Israeli military occupation have increased the bitterness of the Palestinians, and this is part of the Israeli strategy to show the Palestinians that they will pay a heavy price for resistance.
This is double-edged: either it will increase resistance against the occupation, or – with the passage of time – it may lead to the emergence of a group of people who blame Hamas.
a summary
The report concludes that the cost of the aggression against Gaza is very high, and Israel must realize that any form of success in this war is likely to be limited, and that it will continue to deal with Hamas, and the broader problem in Gaza, for years to come.