Israel announces it will launch a partial offensive on eastern Rafah, an operation that risks exacerbating the humanitarian catastrophe caused by Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip.
It has been threatening to invade the southern Gaza city for weeks, regardless of whether a ceasefire and captive trade deal is reached with Hamas, arguing that its security depends on Hamas’s defeat in Rafah and near the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt.
Israel has made similar claims at different times during its seven-month attack on Gaza, which killed nearly 35,000 people and injured more than 70,000.
But its allies have indicated they would not support an operation that would disproportionately harm the civilian population, but Israel is moving forward.
Here’s everything you need to know about what’s happening in Rafah:
Where is Rafah and how many people live there?
Rafah is the southernmost city and governorate of Gaza, bordering Egypt.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNWRA) estimates that 1.4 million people are sheltering there, half of whom are children.
Before the war, Rafah had around 275,000 inhabitants.
How many people are evacuated?
An Israeli army spokesman said it was evacuating around 100,000 people from eastern Rafah.
“Although one area received an evacuation order, this has had a ripple effect throughout Rafah, as frightened people are now seeking safety where there is none,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune UNWRA spokesperson Lousie Wateridge.
How big is East Rafah?
It has an area of approximately 30 km² (11.6 sq mi).
Why is Israel planning to invade eastern Rafah?
Israel announced it would attack after Hamas fired rockets from eastern Rafah on Tuesday, killing four Israeli soldiers.
An attack would cut off the Karem Abu Salam (Kerem Shalom in Hebrew) crossing with Israel in southeastern Gaza, which humanitarian groups say is a much-needed lifeline for starving civilians.
Israel is unlikely to have U.S. political or military support for an “all-out ground invasion,” said Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
She added that Israel could attempt this limited operation to exert more pressure on Hamas in the talks.
However, after Hamas actually accepted the most recent ceasefire proposal, even though it did not give a formal response to Israel, “Israel is creating the appearance of rejecting Hamas, which which in reality did not happen,” Zonszein told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“I think Netanyahu feels this deal could be done, so he is trying to avoid it. »
Where were the Palestinians told to go?
Israeli forces asked Palestinians to flee to al-Mawasi, saying the move would be “temporary.”
Air-dropped leaflets state: “To all residents and those currently hosted in Rafah Camp, Brazil Camp and the Al-Shabura and Al-Zohour neighborhoods. Staying in these areas puts your life in danger.
Ibrahim Nabil, a Palestinian volunteer at a hospital in Rafah, said the Israeli army had told all residents that Gaza’s western corridor was the only “safe” area.
He added that Palestinians could also flee to neighboring districts such as Nuseirat, Deir el-Balah, Maghazi and az-Zawayda.
What is Al-Mawasi?
Al-Mawasi is on the west coast of the Gaza Strip, spanning Rafah and Khan Younis. According to humanitarian agencies, it does not have the infrastructure necessary for an influx of people and is no safer than other areas.
The Israeli military has expanded the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone to respond to increasing levels of aid arriving in Gaza. This expanded humanitarian zone includes field hospitals, tents and increased quantities of food, water, medicine and additional supplies.
In accordance with… pic.twitter.com/si47k9FCCz
– Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) May 6, 2024
“Al Mawasi has been designated as a ‘safe humanitarian zone,’ but it is not safe,” Islamic Relief said in a statement.
“Civilians sheltering there say they continue to face attacks and severe shortages of food, water and other vital aid. Forcing more people there will only worsen the humanitarian crisis.
According to Wateridge, humanitarian agencies in Rafah were already struggling to meet basic needs, a feat infinitely more difficult elsewhere in Gaza.
“In Mawasi, there is a serious lack of sufficient infrastructure, including water,… and it is not possible to support tens of thousands of displaced people there,” she said.
How were people asked to evacuate?
In addition to the leaflets, the Israeli army called on the displaced Palestinians.
Sarah Aljamal said her mother received a call Monday morning from the Israeli army, urging the family to evacuate to al-Mawasi.
“I’m crying,” she said, explaining that her family no longer knows what to do, having been displaced several times during the war.
Khader Al Belbesy received a leaflet airdropped in Arabic detailing “the expansion of the humanitarian zone in Gaza.”
“My mind is confused and I’m looking for a place. There is no transportation. I will leave without luggage,” the father of three told Tel Aviv Tribune.
The Israeli army also told the X that it would send its evacuation announcement via SMS and media broadcast in Arabic.
How did the Israeli army prepare for the offensive?
About 40,000 large tents, each accommodating 12 people, were built in the Khan Younis area, apparently for Rafah evacuees, according to Omar Ashour, professor of security and military studies at the Institute of Higher Studies. from Doha.
Israel has also withdrawn the Nahal brigade from the Netzarim corridor – which runs through Gaza, dividing it into northern and southern sections – and is in the process of redeploying around six brigades (with around 3,000 to 5,000 troops each) to a base near Rafah , Ashour told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“This is not a limited operation but a two-division, multi-domain, combined arms offensive on Rafah,” he said.
The operation will be carried out with artillery, air and naval support as well as electromagnetic and intelligence operations and will likely last for months, he added.
The slider below shows the recent gathering of Israeli military equipment north of the Amitai military base, near the Karem Abu Salem crossing.
What is the international opinion on an offensive in Rafah?
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said a ground attack on Rafah would “put the final nail in the coffin”.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has warned of more suffering and death.
US President Joe Biden and other US officials have repeatedly warned against an offensive on Rafah unless adequate arrangements are made to evacuate civilians.
Twenty-six EU foreign ministers said it would “worsen an already catastrophic humanitarian situation”.
What could be the consequences of such an offensive?
According to Wateridge, humanitarian aid, already insufficient, would be severely impacted.
“The Rafah and (Karem Abu Salem) crossings are the main entry points for humanitarian supplies and commercial goods into Gaza,” she said.
Hunger “will worsen if supply routes are interrupted, as will be the case during any military operation.”
Islamic Relief warned that “people will inevitably die as a result of the evacuation”.
“The sick and injured, the elderly, newborns and people with disabilities are particularly vulnerable and often cannot evacuate without support. »