The Turkish parliament ratified Sweden’s membership of NATO on Tuesday. After this lifting of Ankara’s veto, Hungary is now the only member country of the organization not to have approved the accession of the Nordic country to the Atlantic Alliance. Why is Viktor Orban slowing down Stockholm’s candidacy? Decryption.
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After the green light from the Turkish Parliament on Tuesday January 23, Hungary is now the only NATO member country not to have approved Sweden’s membership in the Atlantic Alliance. The Nordic country submitted its request at the same time as neighboring Finland, which joined the organization in April 2023, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking on X on Wednesday, the day after the Turkish vote, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, however, assured that his government “supports the Swedish candidacy”. During a telephone conversation with the head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, the nationalist leader also assured that he would “continue to call on (his) Parliament to complete the ratification at the first possible opportunity”.
The day before, Viktor Orban had also invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Hungary for “talks”. An invitation, however, was refused by the Swedish government, retorting that its country had no reason to negotiate with Hungary.
Orban plays for time
“I think that Viktor Orban was surprised by this Swedish refusal and that he measured the isolation of Budapest with the lifting of the Turkish veto. Hungary remains the only country to block Sweden’s entry into NATO” , estimates Eszter Karacsony, specialist in Hungary and project manager at IFRI (French Institute of International Relations). “And the question is not yet on the agenda of the Hungarian Parliament,” she specifies.
Despite the agreement in principle given by Budapest to Sweden’s accession to NATO, Viktor Orban has been procrastinating for many months. Approval “will be decided only by the Hungarian Parliament… when the legislators decide that the time has come to do it. They are not very willing to do it,” he said. An ambiguous position while “his party, Fidesz, holds two thirds of the seats in the Hungarian Parliament, and the majority deputies always follow the directives of the Prime Minister. They have never opposed him since he came to power in 2010”, recalls Eszter Karacsony.
Obstinacy and blackmail
For many observers, it is obvious that Viktor Orban wants to slow down the ratification by the Hungarian Parliament of Sweden’s entry into NATO. For Paul Gradvohl, historian, professor at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and specialist in Hungary, one of the reasons is none other than the position of the Swedish government which “does not hide the fact that it is concerned about the drift authoritarian rule of Hungary,” he explains.
In addition, the Hungarian leader is seeking compensation in exchange for his green light. Like Turkey, which obtained from Stockholm a tightening of legislation towards certain Kurdish groups considered terrorist by Ankara, in particular the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, but also the promise from Washington of a possible delivery of planes F-16 in Ankara.
Read alsoSweden’s membership of NATO: what did Erdogan get?
“Budapest has developed a capacity for ‘blackmail’ vis-à-vis its partners in the European Union and NATO”, analyzes Jacques Rupnik, historian, political scientist and emeritus research director at CERI/Sciences Po. During the European Council which was held in mid-December, the Hungarian Prime Minister managed to obtain the release of a tranche of 10 billion euros of community funds which had been blocked by Brussels for “non-compliance with the state of right” by Budapest. This was an EU concession to avoid direct opposition from Hungary to the opening of Ukraine’s accession negotiations and financial aid of 50 billion euros to the country.
“I think that Viktor Orban is currently seeking to obtain from the Swedes a promise of abstention in case the EU wants to sanction Hungary for possible violations of the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary or the media “, continues Jacques Rupnik.
Fear of isolation and support for Russia
Until now, however, Hungary could count on the solidarity of Poland. But the PiS, the conservative and nationalist party in power, was defeated on October 15 after the legislative elections won by a pro-European coalition.
According to observers, by procrastinating in this way, the nationalist leader is also seeking to give assurances to his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unlike other NATO countries, Hungary does not supply weapons to Ukraine. The country also blocked in June 2022 the adoption of European sanctions against the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, recalls Paul Gradvohl. The researcher believes that Viktor Orban, who is banking on a Russian victory, is “doing everything to slow down the aid provided to Ukraine, and this blockage is an example. He is trying to gain time and hopes to hinder by a few more weeks or of a few months the extension of NATO”.