Washington DC – On Tuesday, a progressive Democrat will fight to save her seat in the U.S. Congress — against a threat from within her own party.
Democrat Cori Bush faces a tough primary challenge from County Attorney Wesley Bell as they both compete to represent Missouri in the House of Representatives.
But experts say their fight boils down to one central question: how to approach Israel’s war in Gaza.
Bush, a member of the progressive “brigade” in Congress, has been vocal in his opposition to the Israeli military offensive, which has claimed the lives of more than 39,600 Palestinians.
She argues that the main challenge she faces is part of a broader effort to silence critics of Israel, a longtime U.S. ally, and sow division among Democrats.
“This is just the beginning,” Bush told The Associated Press in an interview published last week. “Because if they can impeach me, they’re going to go after other Democrats.”
Political observers have also noted that Bush’s rival Bell enjoys the support of powerful pro-Israel lobbies.
Their campaign is the latest in the Democratic primary to receive a massive infusion of funds from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliated super PAC, the United Democratic Project (UDP). The two organizations have invested $8.4 million to support Bell’s congressional bid.
In this explainer, Tel Aviv Tribune analyzes the stakes in the Missouri race and what the outcome could mean for the future of the Democratic Party.
When and where do the primaries take place?
The Democratic primaries will be held on Tuesday, August 6.
It will determine which Democratic candidate will run in the Nov. 5 general election for a chance to represent Missouri’s 1st Congressional District.
The district includes the city of St. Louis, a major metropolitan area on the Mississippi River near the Illinois border. It is considered a solidly Democratic area, even though Missouri as a whole leans to the right.
Who is outgoing President Cori Bush?
Bush, a 48-year-old nurse and pastor, rose to prominence as an activist after the police killing of Michael Brown, a black teenager, in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014.
She credits the horror of Brown’s death — and the protests that erupted in its aftermath — with getting her into politics. She initially ran for Congress twice, losing a Senate race in 2016 and a House race in 2018.
But in 2020, her luck changed. She unseated 20-year-old candidate Lacy Clay in that year’s Democratic primary and ultimately won the race to represent Missouri’s 1st Congressional District.
Her election came amid a wave of progressive victories across the country, including Jamaal Bowman’s upset victory in New York. Other prominent progressives, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, also successfully defended their seats that year.
Bush became the first black woman to represent her district in Congress.
Who is his Democratic rival, Wesley Bell?
Wesley Bell has been the St. Louis County District Attorney since 2018. He is the first black man to hold the position.
Like Bush, Bell has also been active in the Ferguson protests, working “directly to calm tensions between residents and police,” according to his campaign website.
He served on a council that worked with the Justice Department to develop a plan to reform the criminal justice system in Ferguson. But like his predecessor in the district attorney’s office, Bell has been criticized for refusing to file charges against the officer involved in Brown’s killing.
Like Bush, Bell presents himself as a progressive; their policy positions are broadly the same. Bell, however, criticized Bush for voting against President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure plan in 2021.
What are the candidates’ positions on Israel?
One of the main points of divergence between Bush and Bell is their position on Israel.
Bush was one of the first representatives in Congress to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, and she has repeatedly supported bills aimed at increasing pressure on Israel to end the war.
She also compared the Israeli military campaign in Gaza to “ethnic cleansing” and “collective punishment against Palestinians.”
Bell, on the contrary, said the United States must continue to support its ally Israel, while working toward a “peaceful resolution.”
He recently told The Associated Press that Bush’s criticism of the war was “wrong and offensive.”
“We don’t want innocent Palestinians, innocent Israelis to be harmed. We want to keep the door open to a two-state solution,” he said.
Why did Wesley decide to confront Bush?
The war in Gaza has weighed heavily on the primary race since its beginning.
Shortly after the war began, on October 7, Bush joined other progressive members of the House of Representatives in calling for “an immediate de-escalation and ceasefire in Israel and occupied Palestine.”
But that position has provoked a backlash against Bush, with some of his fellow Democrats attacking him for not supporting Israel’s right to “self-defense.”
On October 30, Bell announced that he would abandon his Senate campaign to challenge Bush for his seat in the House of Representatives.
What was the role of AIPAC?
Since Bell entered the race, AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democratic Project, has spent more than $8.4 million to unseat Bush.
This represents more than half of the money spent outside of campaign coffers.
The Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United allows super PACs to spend unlimited amounts in political races, as long as the groups do not coordinate directly with candidates.
In the case of the Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, the result was a deluge of ads attacking Bush or supporting Bell.
Although many of the ads are funded by pro-Israel super PACs, they often contain little mention of either candidate’s position on Israel.
Outside funds also flowed into Bush’s support, including $2.2 million from the Justice Democrats, a national progressive group. Yet overall outside spending to support Bush was only about a third of what was spent to support Bell.
What does all this mean?
Critics have long decried the role of unlimited outside spending in American politics, saying it allows certain interest groups to exert outsized influence over campaigns.
For example, a recent analysis of campaign finance by Politico found that while AIPAC receives donations from both Republicans and Democrats, it represents the “largest source of Republican money flowing into competitive Democratic primaries this year.”
Bush supporters fear the spending sends a chilling message that any criticism of Israel poses a high risk to American lawmakers.
The campaign to impeach Bush comes shortly after the United Democratic Project spent a historic $14.5 million to successfully impeach another “squad” member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, earlier this year.
Critics also warn that the spending could produce results that are contrary to what the Democratic base believes. Opinion polls show widespread disapproval of Israeli military actions in Gaza in the United States, as well as strong support for a ceasefire, particularly among Democrats.
“It’s becoming very concerning, with outside spending potentially exceeding that of the candidates. So it means that the candidates are not in control of their campaigns,” Craig Holman, a government affairs lobbyist at the consumer rights group Public Citizen, told Tel Aviv Tribune in June.
“We’ve seen this kind of situation happen from time to time, but now we’re seeing it more regularly, and it’s problematic.”