As Israel devastates Gaza, Egypt must widely monitor developments on its border with growing concern.
Its border with the Palestinian enclave has been a route for aid in and people out, but Israel has had the final say on access to the border, even though there was no presence physical until last week.
And it was this decision – to send Israeli troops to the Rafah border crossing – that experts say cemented Egypt’s belief that Israel does not take its political and security concerns seriously, and lack of respect “.
Egypt has now taken its own steps: on May 12, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Egypt had joined the genocide case brought by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel in Africa from South.
“The importance of this decision is that it sends a signal that Egypt is not happy with what is happening in Gaza and the way Israel is behaving,” said Nancy Okail, an Egypt expert. and President and CEO of the Center for International Policy. although she downplayed the effect of the Egyptian decision on the ICJ’s final verdict, calling it a “symbolic gesture.”
Egypt is increasingly alarmed by Israeli military operations in Rafah, where around 1.5 million Palestinians from across the Gaza Strip have sought refuge.
The capture of the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates Egypt from Gaza, particularly worries Cairo; the Egyptian parliament warned that the Israeli military presence there constituted a violation of the Camp David Accords which brought peace between Egypt and Israel.
“The way Israel has acted over the last week and a half has been incredibly troubling to Egyptian officials,” said Erin A Snyder, an Egypt expert and former professor at Texas A&M University. “They have indeed shown a lack of respect for the relations they have (with Egypt). »
Red lines crossed?
The possibility that Israel’s ultimate goal in Gaza is to expel the Palestinian population has worried Egypt since the war began in October.
Early on, the Israeli Intelligence Ministry drafted a document proposing the transfer of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Although the Israeli government downplayed the report, Israeli politicians, including the far-right duo of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, said they supported the migration. volunteer” of the Palestinians in Gaza.
These repeated suggestions have sounded the alarm in Egypt, which considers any transfer of millions of Palestinians to its territory as a red line that must not be crossed, and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has warned Israel against such a move. .
“Egypt has sounded the alarm on the destabilizing prospects of an Israeli military operation in Rafah and on any military action that could result in the so-called resettlement plan that emerged from Israel last fall,” it said. Hesham Sallam, specialist in Egypt and the crisis. Middle East at Stanford University.
Israel apparently took steps to allay Egypt’s concerns by ordering Palestinians in Rafah to evacuate to al-Mawasi, a coastal area west of Rafah, away from Egypt.
Israel claims al-Mawasi is a “safe humanitarian zone”, but aid groups say tens of thousands of people are crowded into the area, without access to adequate food or water.
Over the past week, 450,000 people have fled Rafah, according to the United Nations, and nearly a million remain.
“The Israelis intend to conclude things in Rafah in a way that resembles what they did in Khan Younis, or at least eventually,” said HA Hellyer, an expert on Middle East geopolitics at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and at the Royal United Services Institute.
“This is deeply concerning for Cairo, as they do not want further escalation along the border.”
Deadline talks?
Egypt hosted ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel, playing a key mediating role between the two sides, alongside Qatar and the United States.
However, Egypt appears frustrated by Israel’s refusal to end the war in exchange for the release of Israeli captives held in Gaza, according to Timothy Kaldas, an Egypt expert and deputy director of the Egypt think tank. Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.
“The Israelis do not appear to be taking the Egyptian-organized ceasefire talks seriously…and no one is clear on what might lead Israel to agree to a ceasefire,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“Egypt is probably very frustrated that this conflict has no end in sight. »
Two days before Israel stormed into eastern Rafah, Egypt, Qatar and the United States pressured Hamas and Israel to sign a deal. Hamas accepted a modified version of the ceasefire proposal presented during the negotiations, but Israel rejected it.
A few days later, Egyptian military officials canceled a planned meeting with their Israeli counterparts due to their disagreement over the Rafah operation, according to Israeli press. “We don’t know what the meeting was supposed to be about. But this decision – which overlaps with that of (joining the ICJ trial) – is certainly an indication of great frustration with Israel on Egypt’s part,” Sallam said.
Another delegation of Israeli intelligence officials reportedly arrived in Cairo on Wednesday for talks with their Egyptian counterparts over Rafah.
A peace treaty in danger?
Egypt has little influence left beyond suspending its peace treaty with Israel, a move experts say is unlikely. The move could jeopardize the $1.6 billion in U.S. military aid that Egypt receives annually under the peace deal.
“I generally doubt that there is a serious risk to the Camp David Accords,” Kaldas said. “The Egyptians benefit in several ways from the continuation of this agreement. »
Snyder said “anything is possible,” emphasizing that everything Israel is doing in Gaza is unprecedented. However, she also does not expect Egypt to suspend the treaty, as it is central to US regional interests.
“I think the United States is very concerned and is working to ensure that (suspension of the treaty) does not happen,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Snyder added that Egypt’s decision to join South Africa at the ICJ should also be seen as an attempt to pressure Israel’s most powerful ally and largest arms supplier to he acts in favor of regional security.
“It’s not just about putting pressure on Israel. It’s also about putting pressure on the US to use its influence on Israel,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.