Last updated: 5/20/202409:27 PM (Mecca time)
Occupied Jerusalem- Israel’s rush to confirm that it was not involved in the helicopter crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his companions, even before Tehran officially announced their deaths, reflects its concerns about the repercussions of the incident on the conflict scene in the Middle East, and its use by Tehran to escalate operations against it.
Israeli experts ruled out any immediate escalation between the two sides due to the helicopter crash, and estimated that the course of tension would be decided by the results of the investigation into the incident. They unanimously agreed that the Iranian strategy towards Israel will not change due to Raisi’s death.
They believed that Raisi’s killing does not mean that Iran will not remain leaderless, or that it will witness a state of confusion and chaos, or that there will be a sudden change in its global and regional policies.
Suspicions and questions
Israeli estimates attributed the absence of any changes in Tehran’s policies and foreign relations to the fact that the final and decisive word remains with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who remains the one who has the final say, while the elected president is in the position of the presidents responsible for implementing Khamenei’s decisions.
In an attempt to remove suspicions and suspicions regarding the issue of the Iranian helicopter crash, all Israeli scenarios suggested that the crash was caused by difficult terrain, bad weather conditions, or human error.
Aviation accident researcher Aharon Lapidot says, “A major helicopter crash, in addition to being a shocking international political event, also raises many question marks.”
While the investigation into the accident is still in its infancy, Lapidot believes that there is still no reliable answer to the question of why the Iranian helicopter crashed, but, in his opinion, there are some interesting questions that could point to a surprising direction regarding the causes of the accident.
He wondered, since the harsh weather conditions along the flight path were known in advance, why was the flight that included 3 helicopters approved? And why was this flight path chosen? He said, “Usually the cause of an air accident is due to human error or a technical malfunction. Or weather conditions.
The Israeli researcher explained that the most common cause of aviation accidents, which causes about 85% of them, is human error, which is most likely behind the crash of the Iranian helicopter, according to his estimate.
Iranian consensus
For his part, Zvi Barel, an analyst for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs in Haaretz newspaper, asserts that Iran’s policy towards Israel will not change even after Raisi’s death. Considering that the status of the late Iranian president, who was elected to his position in 2021, is no different from the status of his predecessors, who remain under the umbrella of the Supreme Leader. He stressed that there is a consensus in Iran on fundamental and crucial issues, regardless of the identity of the president.
The basic issues, Barel explains, such as developing the nuclear program, building a strategic axis with China and Russia, and restoring the relationship with the Arab countries, are all in Khamenei’s hands. Likewise, “the strategic activation of Iranian agents in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen” is not within the powers of the president.
In his opinion, Khamenei is surrounded by a large group of advisors on every issue. In addition to his authority to appoint ministers and dismiss the president, he, not Raisi, is the one who appoints the commanders of the army and the Revolutionary Guard, whose mission is to ensure the implementation of his global and regional strategy, especially against Israel.
In turn, Raz Tsemet, an Iranian affairs specialist and researcher at the Institute for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University, says that the measures taken by the Supreme Leader indicate that the Islamic Republic is ready to deal legally and organizationally with Raisi’s sudden departure.
It is believed that Raisi’s departure places Iran in the midst of important developments internally, regionally and internationally. He said that the late Iranian president was the most likely candidate to succeed Khamenei, and he was the one who pushed for reconciliation and strengthening relations with Arab countries. He also laid the foundation for the strategic alliance with Russia and China, and was “the arch enemy of Israel.”
Frustration and silence
The same proposition was adopted by the military analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz”, Amos Harel, who explained that the Iranian helicopter crash came at a time when Khamenei felt that he had the upper hand against Israel, especially given the strategic success achieved by Iran and the “armed organizations” loyal to it in the Middle East since The Al-Aqsa Flood battle and the current ongoing war have created a state of extreme frustration in Israel.
Harel pointed out that despite the official government silence, Israeli authorities were quick to declare to foreign media denying Tel Aviv’s involvement in the Iranian helicopter crash, amid unofficial expressions of joy that were reflected in the Israeli media.
He pointed out that it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the Israeli government in particular – under conditions of war – would take such a step, which would have very serious repercussions. Harel said, “This does not mean that the Israelis will shed tears for Raisi, who in recent years represented the hard line that led Khamenei against Israel and America.”
The military analyst believes that the Iranian regime will soon be preoccupied with its internal issues, but this does not mean that Tehran will change its strategy towards Israel. In his opinion, the belief that a major helicopter crash will soon end the war and tension surrounding Israel from the encirclement countries seems “very optimistic.”
Harel explained that the “Ring of Fire” strategy formulated by the late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, whose primary goal is to surround Israel with militias armed with tens of thousands of missiles and missiles, is bearing fruit about 4 years after his assassination. He considered that the level of coordination between armed organizations in various fields is becoming more stringent “with Iranian encouragement.”
He concluded by saying that Israel “was not defeated, but rather received a strong blow on October 7, 2023, and since then it has not truly recovered, and is still in a strategic trap, on several fronts.” He added that the Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement has been frozen, while the American administration seems very cautious towards the Iranians, fearing that they will try to resume their nuclear program.