Polish conservative forces are on track to win the European elections. In Poland, the EPP-affiliated party and the ECR member PiS party are neck and neck, according to the Euronews super poll. However, their deep differences could affect the creation of a conservative coalition within the European Parliament.
The deep divide between the right and the center-right in Poland could hamper the formation of a conservative coalition within the EU, despite Poland’s overwhelming conservative popular trend, say analysts at the Euronews Polling Center.
The Euronews Superpoll ahead of the June 9 European elections forecasts a neck-and-neck race between the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party led by Jarosław Kaczyński and the moderate conservatives of_(KO_), the current ruling party. power in Poland.
In the most recent projections, between the beginning of March and the end of May, the ultra-conservative PiS overtook, in some voting intentions, the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, affiliated with the EPP.
Since March, the far-right party Konfederacja (non-registered) lost some voting intentions which apparently migrated towards PiS, allowing this ultraconservative force to get ahead of the pro-EU party Koalicja.
In the European Parliament, the Law and Justice party is an important member (with the FdI of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni) of the nationalist right-wing group European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), while Prime Minister Tusk’s Civic Coalition is one of the most important affiliates of the European People’s Party (EPP), along with the CDU German and the PP Spanish.
The Polish political framework is a relevant terrain to observe the dynamics, contradictions and the potential for creating a broader Euro-conservative coalition between the EPP and the ECR, as envisaged in theagreement policy sealed de facto by the President of the European Commission, the German Ursula von der Leyen (PPE) and the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (ECR).
The figures are crystal clear: Poland, from a political point of view, is gradually moving to the right of the EU political spectrum. The total voting intentions of the Conservatives reached almost 80%. However, the political reality for conservatives in this country is deeply divided.
For what ?
The divergent visions of the principles and values of European law are the main source of tension and antagonism between the Polish members of the EPP, the PiS and the Konfederacja.
Power games between leaders are also at the origin of the deep division between Poland’s moderate and ultra-conservative forces.
They have solid common ground based on patriotic values, a fairly active anti-Russian approach to the war in Ukraine, and very strong pro-US and pro-NATO sentiments.
However, despite their conservative roots and great convergence on defense and security issues, the PiS and the KO remain unlikely allies for a potential coalition at the level of the European Parliament, suggests Tomasz Kaniecki of the Euronews Polling Centre:
“It is purely about tactics and mechanisms, on paper the situation might seem more or less the same, but these are parties that are in eternal conflict, a conflict on the basis of political values, respect for Rule of law, the independence of institutions, respect for their partners.
The question of the rule of law has been a polarizing factor for almost a decade between the PiS And KO.
Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party came into open conflict with Brussels over issues such as the independence of the judiciary when he ruled Poland.
The ultraconservative government has strongly opposed EU migration policy and European values on women’s freedom of choice by pushing for restrictive national legislation on the right to abortion.
The left and center-left in Poland have been weak for years. In Poland, the real dialectic is between moderate conservatives and ultra-conservatives.
Ultraconservatives are not opposed to the idea of Poland being a member of the EU.
On environmental issues, Poland and its ultraconservative forces have expressed widespread criticism of the EU’s anti-carbon directions.
However, says Tomasz Kaniecky:
“The ruling party (the KO by Donald Tusk) will, in theory, be much more supportive of renewable energy sources because he thinks that’s the right way to go. PiS would deploy renewable energy at the same time as defending the coal industry.”
It’s a question of storytelling. Even Polish ultra-conservatives realize that Poland cannot turn its back on EU funds and financial investment from the EU Green Deal.
Poland held national elections in October 2023 and local elections last April. In these two elections, the ultraconservatives obtained more votes than their moderate rivals. But last fall, the center-right became the leading force only because the ultraconservatives failed to form a coalition for internal reasons.
The question of individual freedoms and the personal rivalry between Donald Tusk and Jarosław Kaczyński have been constant factors of division between PiS and the OC. On paper, these are intransigent forces:
“KO And PiS on a variety of topics could vote in exactly the same way as well as on some specific regulations. But this will never happen as part of a formal coalition. And we come back to politics, they will never be together,” concludes Tomasz Kaniecki.