The efforts of European countries to strengthen their armies, in the face of the growing Russian threat, are coming up against the reluctance of young Europeans to join the armed forces.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has pushed European countries to increase their military spending and strengthen their defense. A start which counters the trend observed over the last decade, namely a reduction in troops and in the budget allocated to this issue.
This voluntarism of States, however, comes up against a major problem: the lack of candidates ready to join the armed forces.
Despite additional investments and recruitment campaigns, Germany recently announced that the number of its soldiers was down slightly compared to last year. In early February, the German Ministry of Defense indicated that the Bundeswehr had seen its strength reduced by nearly 1,500 soldiers in 2023, bringing the total troops to 181,500 men and women serving the country.
A number that Bundeswehr plans to increase, ideally reaching 203,000 soldiers by 2031.
The UK also admitted it has been struggling to find new recruits of late. Last year, the British Ministry of Defense recorded 5,800 more departures than arrivals in the armed forces, and has failed to meet its annual recruitment targets since 2010, according to the UK Defense Journal.
“The problem is common to all countries in Europe, including France, Italy and Spain,” explains Vincenzo Bove, professor of political science at the University of Warwick, UK. “I don’t think there is a single country that is spared from this problem.”
According to this researcher, it is difficult to determine at what precise moment the lack of attractiveness of the army began to constitute a real problem. “From what I have observed, this started at least 10 years ago in countries like the United Kingdom,” continues Vincenzo Bove. “In the United States, it started at least 20 years ago.”
One thing is certain, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has increased pressure on European states to find solutions. But what is the origin of such recruitment difficulties?
The values of youth have evolved
According to Vincenzo Bove, the ideological gap between society as a whole and the armed forces has widened in recent years.
“If you take a random sample of young Europeans, they are ideologically very far from that made up of soldiers also living in their country, when we talk about their vision of society, their aspirations, their objectives,” indicates the teacher. “And this distance increases over time.”
According to Vincenzo Bove, a majority of civilians, in the age group representing young people, say they are opposed to wars, increased military spending and external operations, and are more individualistic, abandoning the patriotism expressed by those who serve in the armed forces.
This ideological polarization could find its origin – without this being enough to explain the entire phenomenon – in the end of compulsory military service, and the absence of contact of young people with the army, most of them often not knowing not a single person serving in the institution.
A point of view shared by Sophy Antrobus, researcher at the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King’s College London, that the smaller the armed forces are, the less visible they are to civilians. “In most parts of the (UK) you hardly see anyone in uniform anymore, there is no awareness of the prospect of a career in the army.”
Unattractive salaries
Another explanation lies in the fact that a career in the army has today become an option like any other, according to Vincenzo Bove, and that the institution must face competition from the private sector to attract recruits, starting with a size disadvantage.
“Given the challenges associated with military activity, in terms of quality of life, moving, international missions, uncertainty and risking your life, you would have to pay very high salaries to convince people to apply and to enlist in the armed forces”, estimates the researcher. “And since this is not the case, young Europeans prefer to accept civilian employment.”
In the United Kingdom, for example, the army has benefited from low levels of investment; housing intended for the armed forces has suffered and their general condition is said to be “quite degraded”, judges Sophy Antrobus, who served in the Royal Air Forces for 20 years, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“The processing times for applications to join the armed forces are also quite long, and younger generations – especially today – expect things to happen quickly. If a job becomes available in the public sector In the meantime, this is a more attractive option rather than waiting for the military to give you a chance,” she added.
Demographic decline
European armies must also face a demographic question, due to the aging of the population observed across the continent.
According to Vincenzo Bove, the overall strength of the armed forces has already decreased to adapt to this phenomenon. The British, Italian and French armies, for example, are today “about half the size (as observed) ten or twenty years (earlier)”.
For European armies, the drop in the number of applications could also result in difficulty meeting the high standards imposed by the institution for decades. This could ultimately result in allowing profiles recruited by default to enter, and in particular seeing neo-Nazi sympathizers infiltrate the army.
According to Sophy Antrobus, there is also a “public health and physical fitness” problem observed among young people at the moment. In the United States, given the increase in obesity, the number of individuals not in good physical condition would therefore have increased within the 17-24 age group. “If this trend continues, the armies will no longer have anyone to recruit by 2035-2040,” estimates this specialist.
What future for European armies?
European armies are somewhat in “panic mode”, according to Vincenzo Bove, as they redouble their efforts to try to find new recruits, in a context where the threat represented by Russia is becoming clearer.
“Immigration could be a solution,” he argues, indicating that countries such as Spain, France and Portugal are already considering allowing immigrants to join the army and obtain naturalization, in exchange for several years of service.
“It’s probably the best way forward,” he continues, “because you can’t force people to fight and join the armed forces, and people won’t accept the return of military service OBLIGATORY “.
“Frankly, it’s an insoluble problem,” concludes Sophy Antrobus. “It all starts with politics, political will and interest. To advance the recruitment capacities of European armies, according to her, we should “make the services more attractive, pay a little better, and improve the standard of living. And it’s just not high enough on the political agenda, compared to the cost of living and economic issues.”