From the Hungarian and Slovak governments to pro-Russian opposition parties, the former and perhaps future president of the United States has friends across the continent.
With the US election hanging in the balance, European leaders are psychologically preparing for another Donald Trump presidency – an event that would have major implications not only for trade and diplomacy, but also for the collective security architecture that has kept much of Europe relatively peaceful since the end of World War II.
So far, Donald Trump’s campaign has focused primarily on his domestic agenda, but his term holds lessons for how he will approach his country’s relations with Europe.
He also made it clear who he considers his Allies: a constellation of government leaders and right-wing opposition figuresmany of which share his disdain for international institutions, multiculturalism, progressive social policy and free trade.
At the same time, political developments in various countries and regions, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, mean that a new Trump administration would have new relationships to build and new problems to deal with, if not wash its hands of.
Viktor Orbán (Hungary)
Trump and his entourage have long been particularly impressed by Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán, who has enthusiastically promoted his version of “illiberal democracy” despite repeated clashes with the EU over the rule of law in his country.
Orbán is particularly known for indulging in conspiracy theories about alleged “globalist” interference in internal affairs, which he has used as a pretext to restrict media and academic freedoms to a degree that places him well outside the EU mainstream.
Many on the American right have explicitly celebrated Orbán’s leadership as a model for “saving” the United States. These same lawmakers and commentators are also often criticized for their openness to the Kremlin’s views on Ukraine—such as the fact that NATO and the West do not have to oppose Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country that began in early 2022.
Hungary may not be the largest European country, but it can exercise veto power in various EU institutions and within NATO, where Orbán joined Turkey in delaying Sweden’s accession for several months.
Hungary also holds the rotating EU presidency until the end of the year, and Mr Orbán has already used it to stir up conflict with the Commission and Parliament. He has particularly irritated top leaders in Brussels. by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in person this summerand has continued to exuberantly pursue an idiosyncratic foreign policy that puts it at odds with many European capitals.
Mr Orbán, however, is a special case among European Union leaders. There is no other long-established government to his right, and in Poland, one of the most prominent governments of his ideological persuasion was dismissed almost a year ago.
One place where he is on the rise is Slovakia, where right-wing Prime Minister Robert Fico returned to power in 2023. Fico, who, like Trump, recently survived an assassination attempthas an anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-immigration streak, and, like Orbán, has cracked down on his country’s free media. He is also much warmer toward Putin than most European leaders.
Georgia Meloni (Italy)
Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, is one of Donald Trump’s most classic potential allies.
Currently the most right-wing leader in the G7 – with the possible exception of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida – she has worked hard to cultivate relationships with the international right.
But she has also managed to avoid being stigmatized by EU centrists in the manner of Orbán, despite her culturally conservative and nationalist views, and despite the fact that her coalition government includes the aggressively anti-immigration Lega party.
If Trump is re-elected, Meloni will have a natural ideological ally in power across the Atlantic. And if she proves as adept at building a relationship with his administration as she has been with other governments, she could prove to be something of a bridge between a new Trump administration and an EU whose priorities could be seriously thwarted by her likely agenda.
Europe’s Radical Right
However, it is among the hard right and far right that Mr Trump will find his strongest European supporters, most of whom are in opposition or influence public opinion outside elected politics.
Several well-known parties, such as Vox in Spain, the National Rally in France, Alternative for Germany (AfD) And Reform UKhave so far failed to enter a national government, but they have made significant progress over the past decade, increasing their numbers in national parliaments and, in the case of the AfD, winning the largestshare of votes in a recent regional election.
Like Trump, these parties tend to oppose mass immigration, especially from poorer and predominantly Muslim countries. They often share a skepticism about NATO, the EU, and other international institutions, and they typically appeal to socially conservative voters with a traditional sense of national identity, while emphasizing that “the system”—global or national—has failed “their” voters.
Moreover, some of their leaders have directly associated themselves with Trump and his American allies. This is particularly the case of Nigel Farageleader of Reform UK, who won a seat in Parliament for the first time this year. He has attended numerous Trump events and given numerous interviews to right-wing US media outlets.
However, predictions that this political tendency could become hegemonic in European politics have so far proven wrong. Mr Farage’s party has only a handful of MEPs and has no influence on the current government, while the National Rally failed to live up to its own expectations in this summer’s French elections.
Although the AfD is ahead of the ruling coalition parties in Germany in the polls, it is also under surveillance by the security services. because of his alleged links to the far right.
At EU level, the legislative elections last June did not see the widespread surge of populists and the far right that many observers had expected, allowing Ursula von der Leyen, a centre-right and internationalist, to secure a new term as Commission president.
This means that if he is re-elected, Donald Trump will be dealing with a Europe whose main leaders are, for the most part, not in favour of his political style which defies norms and favours sovereignty.
Instead, the EU and most other European countries are likely to continue on the path of pro-Ukraine multilateralism – and if anything, the implications of a second Trump presidency for the US international presence are an incentive for the center to hold.