Kashmir was always divided between India (55%), Pakistan (30%) and China (15%via Aksai Chen and the Shaksam Valley) is a historic ignition point, and the situation increased complicated after India canceled the autonomy of the region in 2019.
The tension was greatly aggravated after the armed attack in Kashmir under Indian control on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 people, which led to escalatory measures between the two countries.
In the midst of these tensions, China finds itself in a complex position as a regional power that seeks to balance its support for Pakistan by the party and manage its tense relations with India on the other hand.
Neutral investigation
China has expressed concern about the escalation between India and Pakistan, calling for restraint and dialogue to resolve differences through direct consultation and avoid military escalation.
Beijing also called for a neutral investigation and the suspension of mutual accusations, especially in light of its fears of any confrontation between two adjacent nuclear states that threaten regional stability, while confirming that it has common borders with both countries.
Observers believe that China’s strategic interests indicate an implicit tendency to support Pakistan, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi said during a phone call to his Pakistani counterpart, Isaac, “as the trusted friend of Pakistan and its strategic partner in all circumstances, China is fully aware of the legitimate security concerns of Pakistan and supports it in protecting its sovereignty and security interests.”
He added that his country hopes that the two sides will remain disciplined, to move towards each other and work together to calm the situation.
According to Lin Menuang, deputy director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the University of Fodan, the statements of the Chinese Foreign Minister can be explained as a “warning to the Indian side”, as China seeks to prevent India’s dominance of Pakistan, and Islamabad is not just a means of buding the influence of New Delhi, but rather adopts an independent strategic approach aimed at protecting its interests in the region.
However, Beijing – according to Al -Jazeera Correspondence, Shaima Joe Ee – seeks to hold the stick in the middle, it maintains close strategic relations with Islamabad, but at the same time she realizes that the continuation of tension with New Delhi may open complex fronts on its eastern borders, especially in light of the historical border conflict that extends over more than 3500 km.
The strategic alliance with Pakistan
China and Pakistan link a strong strategic partnership that is manifested in the China -Pakistani economic corridor (CBEC), which is a vital part of the Belt and Road Initiative, and this corridor passes through sensitive areas such as Kashmir under Pakistani control, making Pakistan’s stability a Chinese priority.
China provides Pakistan with about 80% of its weapons (2020-2024), including submarines and fighter planes, which enhances its military capabilities against India.
China also supports Pakistan in international forums, as happened in the 2019 Security Council session that China has called for to discuss the situation in Kashmir.
This is explained by this position, that China sees in India a major regional competitor, especially with the escalation of border tensions between them (such as Clashes of Equipment 2020) and Pakistan’s support, albeit unanimously, helps China contain the influence of India in South Asia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlrt8LGIQPM
Tension backgrounds between China and India
The tense relationship between China and India is a major background of the Beijing position on the Kashmir crisis and the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India, and that relationship is affected by historical, indecency and geopolitical factors, including:
- Border disputes:
The dispute between the two countries extends along the actual control line (LAC) with a length of 3488 km, which has not been officially drawn, and the hot points include Axi Chen (under China’s control and demanded by India) and Arunatchel Pradesh (under the control of India and demanded by China as part of Tibet).
In 1962, the China’s Indian War led to China’s control of Aksai Chen, sowing the seeds of persistent tension between the two countries.
- Geopolitical competition:
China in India sees an upward regional competitor, especially with New Delhi’s ambitions for a permanent membership in the Security Council and its role in gatherings such as the Quad -Kawad Security Dialogue Assembly, which includes the United States, Japan and Australia.
China considers that the United States is seeking to exploit the Kiwad coalition against it, while seeking to enhance its influence through the “Belt and Road” initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
- Economic differences:
Despite strong trade relations (bilateral trade amounted to $ 135 billion in 2024), India suffers from a major trade deficit with China, which amounted to about 85 billion dollars.
China’s investments in sensitive sectors such as technology have sparked security concerns in India, which prompted New Delhi to ban Chinese applications such as “Tik Talk” after confronting Wadi Gallowan.
“Since its foundation in 1949, China is hostile to and uncomfortable with India’s global standing and development,” says former Indian Ambassador Yugish Zobta.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgzyenjohy
American rapprochement
US -Indian relations have been greatly strengthened during the past two decades, driven by common interests in the face of China’s rise, and this rapprochement may directly affect China’s position on the Kashmir 2025 crisis.
The United States supports India as part of its strategy to contain China in the area of the Indian and Pacific Ocean, as it reflects agreements such as the “logistical agreement for exchange” (LEMA) and “Convention of Compatibility and Communications Security” (Komcasa) the depth of these relations, from exchanging intelligence information to joint military maneuvers.
In the context of the “Kawad” coalition, the United States seeks to strengthen the role of India as a naval anti -China force in the Indian Ocean, which is concerned about Beijing from its regional surrounding.
After a mine attack, the United States expressed its solidarity with India, calling for “accountability of the terrorist parties”, in an implicit reference to Pakistan.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Islamabad called for cooperation in achieving the attack, stressing the United States’ support for India in its control of extremism.
On the American position, Christine Fair, a professor of security studies at Georgetown University, says that the United States will not pressure India to retract its response to Pakistan, considering that India has the freedom to determine its course.
The United States is expected to provide intelligence and military support for India in the event of an escalating conflict, including providing it with air defense systems and information on the movements of Pakistani forces, and this support strengthens New Delhi’s design on taking strict positions against Pakistan, which reduces the effectiveness of China’s calls to calm.
Chinese analysts believe that the United States is using the Kashmir crisis to enhance its presence in South Asia, putting China in a defensive position.
On the other hand, the American-Indian rapprochement is leading China to enhance its support for Pakistan, whether by providing military aid (such as “J-10”) or diplomatic support at the United Nations to budget American influence.
Security analyst Asfandar Mir believes that India and Pakistan “are heading towards a hot conflict, and are likely to be more severe than the 2019 crisis.”
Mir said that the decision -making process in India on the current crisis was complicated by its leadership to “consider the situation of China”, noting that the border confrontation that lasted for years has exhausted Indian military resources and was a synchronous threat along with the risk coming from Pakistan.
He added that the Sino -Pakistani relations “are still strong, and China is likely to provide the assistance that Pakistan needs to continue fighting with India.”
The Indian diplomat, Ambassador Yugish Zobta, confirms that China is providing Pakistan with nuclear technology, heavy weapons, advanced warships and combat aircraft to enhance its defenses against India.
“We are not surprised by the decision of China to provide Pakistan with more weapons now, in the hope that the war between Pakistan and India will weaken the latter,” said.
The motives of the Chinese position
- American influence competition:
China sees in its support for Pakistan a way to confront the American -Indian coalition, and the economic corridor between the two countries – which provides China to the Arabian Sea – is a strategic tool to reduce dependence on the Strait of Malaga, which is subject to American influence.
- Protection of economic interests:
The military escalation in Kashmir represents a direct threat to Chinese investments in the Chinese -Pakistani economic corridor, which is estimated at 46 billion dollars, as parts of this corridor pass through the Pakistani Kashmir, which makes the region’s stability a fundamental matter for Beijing.
The expansion of the conflict may disrupt Chinese trade with India, which is a major market for Chinese exports, so China seeks to avoid a comprehensive war that may lead to imposing Western sanctions or disrupting its regional projects.
- Preserving regional stability:
The Director of the South Asia Studies Center, Leo Zonji, expects that Beijing will seek to strengthen peace talks between India and Pakistan in light of the ongoing tensions, with the aim of ensuring a stable and peaceful regional neighborhood, which creates a favorable environment for sustainable economic and social development.
Leo adds that Beijing will not tolerate any threats of its external interests, especially directed against its projects and people in Pakistan.
He pointed out that armed groups, such as the Liberation Army of Balochistan and the Pakistani Taliban movement, claimed to have Indian support despite the absence of conclusive evidence for that, and these groups have already targeted Chinese projects and Chinese citizens, which increased China’s sensitivity to the situation in Pakistan, he said.
However, China’s support for Pakistan may be explained in India as provocation, which increases the possibility of border clashes.
- Promoting the diplomatic role:
China provides itself as a responsible global power through its calls for dialogue, but American support for India limits the effectiveness of this role, as China is seen in India as part of the problem because of its alliance with Pakistan.
According to the South China Morning Post, “it is unlikely that New Delhi or Washington would prefer a bigger role for Beijing, while the American side may depict China and Pakistan as being closely allied, restricting the role that China can play.”
The repercussions of the Chinese position
Some observers believe that the American support for India and the Pakistani alliance enhances the state of regional polarization, and leads to more rapprochement and cooperation between India and the United States against China and Pakistan.
If American support continues to encourage India to take strict measures, China may resort to strengthening its military presence on the border or providing direct support to Pakistan, which increases the risk of military escalation in the region, and this may push Beijing to rely on other parties such as Russia or the United Nations to reduce tensions.
According to Chinese writer and analyst Ourang Wang, “China has recently taken steps to reset its relations with India after years of border tensions in the Himalayas, the suspension of direct flights, and mutual visa restrictions, in light of the increasing geopolitical pressure from the Donald Trump administration.”
On the possibility of China as a mediator, Wang adds, “China has been a friendly friend of Pakistan for decades, and a partner in all circumstances since 2015, which raises questions about whether Beijing will try to reconcile the two countries or interfere as a mediator during the current crisis.”
“It is likely that China’s role is limited in the current tensions between the two countries,” said Lin Menang, noting that “Beijing plays the mediator between the two sides requires the acceptance of both India and Pakistan, but New Delhi is unlikely to accept Chinese efforts to explain Islamabad’s position.”
