kyiv announced on Monday that it had destroyed an A-50, an essential Russian airborne defense weapon. This long-range radar plane constitutes a major asset in the war between Ukraine and Russia in the air.
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Only one A-50 is missing and the entire Russian army finds itself disorganized? Ukraine was proud, on Monday January 15, of having succeeded in shooting down an A-50 long-range radar detection plane over the Azov Sea. A success presented as a major blow to the Russian army in general.
“We shot it down and it exploded during a perfectly conducted and organized operation in the Azov region,” rejoiced Valery Zalouzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. “Burn in hell, you bastards!” Mikola Oleshchuk, the commander of the Ukrainian air force, said on Telegram to celebrate the “feat”.
For their part, the Russians have not confirmed this loss. “We have no information (on this subject),” Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, simply replied on Monday.
Two planes hit
Some of the “milbloggers” – these Russian military commentators often from the ultra-nationalist movement, very active on social networks – have however “taken this information into their own hands”, notes Frank Ledwige, specialist in air war issues at the University of Portsmouth.
Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, says Ukraine “destroyed” a Russian A-50 spy plane and Il-22 airborne command plane over the Sea of Azov.
The Kremlin says it has “no information” about the incident. pic.twitter.com/Fkn7DLPuEW
— max seddon (@maxseddon) January 15, 2024
This destruction of the A-50 seems all the more credible since kyiv announced at the same time that it had hit another plane – an IL-22, another aircraft serving as an airborne command center. “For the latter, images of the damaged aircraft were posted, which suggests that Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses did indeed hit important targets of the Russian Air Force,” summarizes Sim Tack, a military analyst for Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.
The loss of an A-50 would be a “significant setback for the Russian army,” assures Jeff Hawn, specialist in Russian military issues and external consultant for the New Lines Institute, an American geopolitical research center.
This aircraft represents “the spearhead of the Russian airborne defense system”, underlines Frank Ledwige. This imposing aircraft, easily recognizable thanks to the large disc-shaped radar fixed above the aircraft, allows the Russian aviation to have “a very advanced early detection and guidance system”, summarizes Sim Tack.
The A-50s play the role of both the ultimate sky lookout and air command center. “They are sometimes compared, a little hastily, to spy planes because they have the ability to see very far away, more than most ground radars. But their function is not to ensure reconnaissance, but rather to coordinate the movements of the Russian air fleet and to warn bombers or fighters as quickly as possible when they are within range of targets or enemy anti-aircraft devices. ”, explains Jeff Hawn.
Rare planes
These planes are all the more important for the Russian army because they are rare. “The Soviet Union built around fifty, but only around ten have been improved since,” assures Jeff Hawn.
Ukraine estimates that Russia only has eight A-50s left to both cover its territory and help ensure Russian superiority in Ukrainian skies. Knowing that these planes cannot fly continuously and must take turns to ensure that nothing escapes Moscow’s aerial eye, the loss of one of them “puts the Russian Air Force under pressure and can create a void in the system,” judges Frank Ledwige.
The destruction of one of these aircraft would also be a severe blow on a human level. “It carries a crew of around fifteen people, generally very well trained, who will be difficult to replace,” adds Frank Ledwige.
If the loss of an A-50 were to be confirmed, the Russian general staff will have to understand how Ukraine was able to shoot down a plane supposed to be flying out of range of enemy fire. In this case, it was shot down north of the Sea of Azovthat is to say at the limit of the supposed range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.
“The plane was probably shot down with an American Patriot missile, because they are the only ones to have such a range in the Ukrainian arsenal,” estimates Jeff Hawn. But it will probably “have been necessary to move these weapons closer to the front line in order to be within range of the target, which is not without risk”, assures Sim Tack. Indeed, kyiv has a limited stock of Patriot missiles. By transporting them further to the combat zone, Ukraine also exposed these valuable weapons to Russian strikes.
An impact on the course of the war?
The Ukrainian army must therefore have considered that destroying an A-50 was worth taking these risks. However, it is difficult to say that such success can have a direct impact on the battlefield. Opinions differ on this point. For some, “even if Russia sends another A-50 to support the army in this area, they will probably position it a little further back, which should reduce the effectiveness of its surveillance and its ability to guide the Russian bombers in enemy territory,” summarizes Sim Tack.
For other analysts, “this loss will mainly have an impact on the air war, but this air dimension does not play a crucial role in the conflict in Ukraine currently”, estimates Frank Ledwige.
However, such success – if confirmed – will leave its mark. “It’s a bit like when Ukraine manages to target the Russian fleet in the Black Sea,” underlines Frank Ledwige. kyiv thus demonstrates its ability to strike targets that Russia could believe were under its control.