The International Court of Justice on Friday issued a series of interim measures demanding that Israel comply with the 1948 Genocide Convention, allow more humanitarian aid to Gaza and take action against those who issue genocidal statements.
The World Court’s interim ruling, in a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, did not order Israel to suspend or stop its devastating war on Gaza, which killed more than 26,000 Palestinians in the enclave since October 7.
But he rejected Israel’s assertion that the court lacked jurisdiction to order interim measures and reiterated that its findings were binding.
The Palestinian Authority welcomed the decision. “The ICJ’s decision is an important reminder that no state is above the law or beyond the reach of justice,” Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Maliki said in a statement. “This shatters Israel’s entrenched culture of criminality and impunity, which has characterized its decades of occupation, dispossession, persecution and apartheid in Palestine. »
Although the court itself does not have the power to enforce the interim ruling, or even the final verdict it issues in the case, its directives on Friday could influence the war in Gaza, analysts said. Pressure has increased on Israel and its U.S. backers in recent weeks, as global calls for a ceasefire continue to intensify.
Friday’s decision does not determine whether Israel is committing genocide, as South Africa has claimed. But Judge Joan Donahue, the current president of the ICJ, said in announcing the interim measures that the court had concluded that the “catastrophic situation” in Gaza could worsen long before it issued its final verdict, requiring provisional measures.
“The ruling sends a strong message to Israel that the Court views the situation as very serious and that Israel must do everything it can to exercise restraint in conducting its military campaign,” Michael said. Becker, assistant professor of international human rights law at the University of Washington. Trinity College, Dublin, who also served as Deputy Legal Officer at the International Court of Justice in The Hague from 2010 to 2014.
Can the war continue?
The ICJ, in its interim measures, did not order Israel to stop its military campaign in Gaza. South Africa had requested such a cease and desist directive in its request for interim measures, citing the prospect of genocide in Gaza.
The court had ordered Russia to end its war in Ukraine in March 2022, a month after launching an invasion of Ukraine, although Moscow ignored the decision.
Thus, Israel would not be violating Friday’s ICJ directives by continuing a war it says it will continue until it has decimated Hamas, the Palestinian armed group that attacked southern Israel on October 7, killing nearly 1,200 people and kidnapping 240 others. .
Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will likely face more scrutiny than ever because of the actions of its soldiers in Gaza and the statements of its leaders and generals.
Israel is required, according to the ICJ decision, to submit a report within one month demonstrating that it is complying with the provisional measures. South Africa will have the opportunity to find fault in Israel’s claims.
Will Israel follow the ICJ decision?
When South Africa submitted its case to the ICJ in late December, Israeli officials called it “lies” and accused the South Africans of “hypocrisy.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would not be influenced by any decision.
“We will restore security to the south and the north,” Netanyahu wrote on the platform known as X, formerly Twitter, from the official account of the Israeli Prime Minister. “No one will stop us – not The Hague, not the axis of evil, not anyone else. »
But even if Israel decides not to respect the ICJ decision, pressure will be put on its international donors.
“Israeli politicians have already said they are going to ignore the ICJ order,” Mark Lattimer, executive director of the Ceasefire Center for Civilian Rights, told Tel Aviv Tribune. “It is much more difficult, in particular, for the United States and European states, including the United Kingdom, to ignore this order, because they have a much stronger record of supporting or supporting the International Court of Justice. »
Legal experts expect Israel’s Western allies, including the United States, to respect the ICJ ruling. Failure to do so would have serious repercussions.
Doing so would harm the “credibility of the rules-based international order that the United States claims to uphold,” Lattimer said. He added that it would also “reinforce a growing divide” between the United States and Western countries compared to Southern states that view such claims of “maintaining global order” with skepticism.
Will the decision add global pressure for a ceasefire?
While the decision itself does not call for a ceasefire, it could make it more difficult for Israel’s allies to continue to block global efforts to end the war.
“The ICJ decision puts a lot more pressure on the United States and other Western allies to pass a ceasefire resolution,” Zaha Hassan, a rights lawyer, told Tel Aviv Tribune. man and member of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It is much more difficult for the United States, like Israel, to make its case to Western governments who are still very concerned about international legitimacy, to maintain the idea that Israel is acting within the constraints of international law in Gaza and that it is acting in self-defense.
There is some evidence to suggest that Israel knows this too. Soon after South Africa announced it would take the case to the ICJ, Israel’s tactics on the ground began to change, experts said.
There has been “a rush to eliminate any possibility of Palestinians returning to northern Gaza,” Hassan said, pointing to controlled bombings of universities and hospitals. “Once hospitals are removed, it becomes impossible for people at war to stay. This is part of a strategy to force Palestinian population transfer and permanent displacement. »
But it is perhaps a recognition that Israel’s time to wage its military campaign is running out.
“There needs to be enough international pressure to create more incentives for a negotiated ceasefire,” Lattimer said. “The ICJ order is a major contribution. »
Brothers in arms
The United States, in particular, has provided military aid that Israel depends on to continue waging war. President Joe Biden has bypassed the US Congress twice in less than a month to greenlight emergency arms sales to Israel.
The Biden administration claims to have asked Israel to protect civilian life, but that has not shielded it from harsh criticism, including internally, for its failure to convince Israel to give greater consideration to innocent lives in Gaza.
“This administration is concerned about the growing number of members of Congress, particularly moderate Democrats in the Senate, who are sounding the alarm about the misuse of U.S. weapons and potential U.S. complicity if they continue to send unconditional supplies to Israel,” Hassan said. .
The ICJ’s decision could give new impetus to the push for a ceasefire in Gaza and prompt the United States to insist on a higher level of accountability for Israeli military action.
“The moment the United States says, ‘We are no longer resupplying you,’ this war on Gaza must end,” Hassan said.
