Rafah, an imminent Israeli ground “operation” and its impact on more than a million trapped civilians are making headlines.
But what is Rafah and what are the details of this announced Israeli “operation”?
What is Rafah?
Rafah straddles the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
On the Palestinian side, it is the name of the southernmost governorate of Gaza and its capital, as well as the crossing point to Egyptian Sinai. On the Egyptian side, it is a city in the North Sinai governorate.
Palestinian Rafah covers 64 square kilometers (25 square miles), and as Israel has attacked Gaza over the past four months, more and more people have been herded there by Israeli forces who continue to promise “more to the south” – which never came to fruition.
Around 1.4 million Palestinians have been pushed back towards Rafah by relentless Israeli bombing which has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians.
People are packed into dense groups in a limited space, not filled with debris and not bombed by Israel. Conditions are dire, with severe shortages.
What is the Israeli “operation”?
Tel Aviv claims that four Hamas brigades are present in Rafah, using their presence there to justify ongoing air attacks as well as a planned ground assault.
Israel also says plans to evacuate the city – to an uncertain destination – are being prepared, leaving those sheltering in Rafah paralyzed.
Why is Egypt involved?
Given that the trapped civilians are pressed against the border with Egypt, analysts say it seems likely that Israel wants to push them toward the Sinai.
This raises concerns about Egypt’s internal security and the prospect of more than a million traumatized Palestinians being forced to emigrate to its territory.
What has Egypt done so far?
Egypt has reportedly moved 40 tanks and armored personnel carriers to the Gaza border to stop any potential spillover from an Israeli ground attack.
Egypt has warned that any Israeli ground attack on Rafah would have “disastrous consequences” and that Israel’s goal of forcing Palestinians from their land would threaten the 40-year-old Camp David peace agreement between the two countries.
Cairo has strengthened security at its borders since October 7.
Why don’t Palestinians want to leave Gaza?
Palestinians faced massive displacement in the not-so-distant past: the Nakba.
In 1948, some 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically expelled from their homes and lands to enable the creation of the State of Israel.
Many in Gaza are descendants of Nakba refugees and do not want to leave Palestine because they know it will be impossible for them to return – Israel will not let them.
Arab countries, such as Egypt, also oppose any displacement, because the Palestinians’ right of return has been one of the main demands since 1948.
So, is Rafah safe for now?
No.
Israel is already killing more than 100 people a day in air attacks on Rafah.
Those who survive the attacks live in indescribable conditions, in tents that fill with water whenever it rains, or under the debris they find for shelter.
Many Palestinians in Rafah have been displaced repeatedly and say they will not move again, no matter what. Like Jihan al-Hawajri who told the American channel PBS that she would stay in her tent, whatever happened.
“There is no place left to flee,” said Angelita Caredda, Middle East and North Africa director of the Norwegian Refugee Council.
What are the conditions in Rafah currently?
Satellite images obtained by Tel Aviv Tribune show an area already at breaking point. Some 22,000 people are gathered in each of Rafah’s 64 square kilometers.
Before the war, 275,000 people lived in these 64 square kilometers, making Rafah one of the most densely populated areas of Gaza, itself one of the most crowded areas in the world.
The displaced are gathering at UNRWA premises, hoping that the agency created to help them will be able to do so. But nearly 150 UNRWA staff were killed in Israeli attacks, aid was cut off by Israel, and Western governments withdrew funding when Israel claimed – without any evidence yet – that 12 staff of UNRWA had participated in the attack of October 7.
Overcrowding has led to the spread of disease, with health authorities reporting an outbreak of hepatitis A – which thrives in close contact.
With patient isolation impossible, there is little hope of stopping this or other epidemics, such as scabies and lice, made worse by the lack of hygienic showers or toilets.
What does Israel want?
When the October 7 attack took place – killing 1,139 people in Israel – and Palestinian armed fighters took 240 people captive to Gaza, Israel’s stated goals were to return the captives and “eradicate the Hamas.”
Since then, the narrative has changed.
Initially claiming that it was only targeting armed fighters, Israel quickly imposed a total starvation siege on Gaza, killing civilians with every passing minute.
Then it became clear that when Israel said “avoid civilian casualties,” it meant its secret calculation with an increased “acceptable casualty margin,” or the number of people it believed it could kill to eliminate a target.
A massive attack on the Jabalia refugee camp in October killed 50 people and eliminated a “Hamas commander,” a designation for which Israel has not presented evidence.
It also began targeting hospitals, with a horrific attack on al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, endangering more than 30 premature babies whose incubators shut down when Israel cut off electricity. The stated goal of uncovering the “hidden Hamas command bunkers” under al-Shifa was never realized.
Others followed as Israel surrounded one hospital after another, killing and starving those inside, to “unearth Hamas command centers.” None have been discovered.
Will the Rafah attack help Israel achieve anything?
Unlikely, because Israel’s claims of “dismantling terrorist battalions,” referring to armed Palestinian factions, seem as ephemeral as claims of clandestine command centers.
He declared the Palestinian fighting factions “neutralized” in northern Gaza, only to later admit that this was not the case.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under pressure – including from the UK and US – to call off the ground assault, but he insists it will be a operation aimed at “dismantling Hamas”.
The United States has made its sharpest criticism of wartime Tel Aviv, saying Israel should “prioritize civilians,” but has not threatened to cut its aid or support.
The EU and the UK have followed the US’s lead.
No Comment: return of air traffic to Syria