Beirut, Lebanon – A delegation of Islamic and Arab nations is touring the five permanent member states of the United Nations Security Council.
Their stated goal is to establish a ceasefire in the war on Gaza, allow more humanitarian aid to reach the population, and ask the five council members to support the Palestinians in achieving a Independent state.
But experts are divided on the effectiveness and format of this trip.
“The impression of activity”?
The delegation, formed at a summit of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh, includes representatives from Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Nigeria, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Secretary General of the Palestinian Authority. OCI. He rejects Israel’s claim that its attack on Gaza is an act of self-defense.
On October 7, Hamas attacks in southern Israel killed approximately 1,200 people. Around 240 people were captured. Since then, Israel has killed more than 14,500 Palestinians. At least 6,000 were children.
The delegation has a busy schedule and began its tour in China, where it met Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, in Beijing on Monday.
Starting with China, which surprised analysts who were speculating about what the delegation was trying to signal to Western powers. Some cared less and questioned the delegation’s real agenda.
“In diplomacy, it’s a well-known strategy: when you don’t want to do anything, try to involve as many actors as possible,” posted Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to Israel, on X, formerly known as from Twitter. “It takes time, it makes you feel busy, and it serves no purpose.”
Shortly after the delegation’s visit began, talk of a humanitarian pause gained momentum, and early Wednesday it was announced. The agreement was a major topic of discussion for the delegation, which advocated for a more lasting cessation of hostilities.
The deal would see Hamas release around 50 women and children, three times as many Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons.
The announced duration of the break is four days, during which the captives will be released. Israel also said it would stop fighting for an additional day for each “additional” batch of 10 captives released by Hamas.
The meeting in China was followed by another with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday and with British Foreign Minister David Cameron later in London. On Wednesday, a meeting took place with French President Emmanuel Macron.
First stop, China
By beginning their journey in China, Islamic and Arab states could attempt to gather global support to present to the nations that have supported Israel thus far.
During the meeting, Wang said choosing China as the first stop was an indication that the countries in the delegation trusted China and valued mutual understanding between them.
Robert Mogielnicki, an expert at Georgetown University on Chinese relations with countries in the Middle East and North Africa, does not view the efforts of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states as performative as Araud does .
“Arab states do not have enormous direct leverage. Indirect influence by shaping the global narrative…and influencing the public positions of key global players appears to be an important dimension of their efforts,” he said.
China appeared to welcome the diplomacy, with Wang telling the delegation: “China has always… firmly supported the Palestinian people’s just cause to restore their legitimate national rights and interests,” according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
“China has an interest in regional order and preventing economic turbulence,” Arang Keshavarzian, associate professor of Middle East and Islamic studies at New York University, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“I can only assume that these leaders are genuinely trying to get China more involved in helping to end the war, but the reality is that only the United States has the necessary influence over Israel. »
“Message to the United States”
In August, China brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which restored their diplomatic relations and analysts said was a sign that the Middle East was turning away from the United States as a as a major ally.
“The fact that China is the first destination visited is a message to the United States,” Randa Slim, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Tel Aviv Tribune. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are telling the United States: “You are no longer the only power in the region,” she said.
Beijing has also recently strengthened its relations with non-Western multilateral groups like BRICS, of which it is a member alongside four other major emerging economies, and has forged stronger ties with the Global South in what analysts seen as efforts to build a more multipolar world order. .
The Saudi-Iran deal constitutes a “diplomatic victory for China, which increasingly seeks to present an alternative vision to the US-led global order,” according to a report from the American Institute of Peace.
Abraham Accords or failure?
Arab leaders have complained about American disengagement from the region in recent years. His policies have largely focused on following former President Donald Trump’s strategy of promoting the Abraham Accords, normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries.
Arab leaders – Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular – recently warned US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that this strategy has contributed to instability in the region.
Before October 7, it was widely reported that Saudi Arabia and Israel were also on their way to normalizing relations. The deal would have been a major blow for Israel, which analysts say is seeking to circumvent collaboration with the Palestinians by instead striking deals with regional powers.
Popular mobilization in support of the Palestinians over the past six weeks, particularly in the Middle East, has “upended” the “regional dynamics that underpin normalization processes,” Mogielnicki said.
However, he added: “The underlying strategic calculations that supported past standardization efforts are unlikely to disappear completely. »
Public perception of the United States as a staunch ally of Israel — although Blinken and other U.S. officials have highlighted policies such as restoring aid to the Palestinians that the Trump administration had cut — could do not change.
Although Arab states have no illusions about the United States’ position, the visit to China does not yet indicate a complete loss of confidence.
“This is part of efforts to galvanize global support…and increase pressure on the Israeli government,” Mogielnicki said.
Even though they are frustrated by the United States’ unwavering support for Israel, Arab leaders know that the power to stop the carnage lies with the United States.
“If you want to achieve the goal of a ceasefire, you have to talk to the Americans,” Slim said. “They are the only party (to decide).”