On February 12, Saleh Abou Ghanem heard Israeli military planes buzzing in the sky from night until dawn.
They were bombing Rafah, the southern Gaza town near the Egyptian border, where 1.4 million Palestinians were seeking relative safety from relentless Israeli attacks. While Abu Ghanem survived the attacks, he learned that his aunt had been killed in her home by an Israeli bomb.
“She was sleeping when she was martyred,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his intention to expand military operations in Rafah. Two days later, Israel launched a series of strikes that killed dozens of people.
Analysts believe Netanyahu’s stated plan is part of a larger plot to depopulate Gaza and prolong its political survival, as many predict he will be removed from office after the war.
But world leaders have warned that a large-scale attack on Rafah constitutes a “red line”, although few have threatened to punish Israel if it continues its offensive.
After being forcibly evacuated to Rafah, Palestinians have nowhere to flee. Many fear a military operation could lead to some of the worst violence in a war that has already killed more than 28,000 Palestinians following the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed. killed.
“Some people fled Rafah (since the recent attacks), but I don’t know where they went. There is nowhere to go. Where can we go?” said Abou Ghanem with resignation.
Depopulate Gaza
The impending military operation in Rafah aims to permanently displace hundreds of thousands of Palestinians across the Egyptian border, according to Omar Rahman, an Israel-Palestine expert at the Middle East Council for Peace think tank. world affairs.
He told Tel Aviv Tribune that Israel’s war on Gaza has always been a much broader campaign against the Palestinian population and not just Hamas. He said Israel’s plans to attack Rafah are further proof of this.
“The Israeli war machine is attacking Rafah with genocidal intent,” he said.
Haneen Rizk, an employee in Gaza of the United Nations Relief Agency (UNRWA), which provides school, health and other relief services to Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories and surrounding states, said that most people are just waiting to die.
She added that some families have returned from Rafah to their homes and communities in central and northern Gaza. But with at least 70 percent of Gaza’s homes destroyed or damaged, Rizk said most Rafah residents have no choice but to stay put.
“If Egypt opens the border… most people would leave,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“But right now it is very costly for anyone to try to enter Egypt. It requires about $5,000 and so few people have that kind of money.
Egypt has closed its border with Gaza since October 7. But Rizk was referring to private bus companies that charge high fees, which few Gazans can afford, to transport Palestinians to Egypt.
“Chicken Game”
Early in the war, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi publicly stated that he would not accept Palestinian refugees, fearing that doing so would “end the Palestinian cause” and threaten Egypt’s national security. The Egyptian leader called for a ceasefire to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe that could further complicate his diplomatic relations with Israel.
“I call it a game of chicken,” Rahman said.
“The Israelis hope that the Egyptians will give in by opening the border (under pressure) and the Egyptians hope that they can buy enough time until Washington (ends) the war,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Egypt may already be moving. Local rights groups have reported that Egypt is building a “buffer zone” in its Sinai region to absorb Palestinians expected to flee Rafah. However, Egypt has not confirmed this information.
CIA chief William Burns also recently visited Cairo, the Egyptian capital, to discuss the possibility of a temporary truce that would allow Hamas and Israel to exchange prisoners.
Hamas captured around 240 Israelis during its attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, while Israel holds around 10,000 Palestinian prisoners for “security-related” offenses – although many do not were not even charged. Netanyahu has insisted on rescuing Israelis in Gaza by military means, despite the objections of the captives’ families who are pleading for a deal.
Rahman believes that Netanyahu’s real motivation is to maintain an occupying force in Gaza for a considerable period of time in order to prevent Palestinians from rebuilding their homes and ensure that civilians live in constant fear. “Israel’s intention… is to keep pressure on (the Palestinians) to flee,” he said.
A political ploy?
Netanyahu’s political survival is also linked to the continuation of the war in Gaza, according to Mairav Zonszein, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the International Crisis Group, a think tank dedicated to conflict prevention and resolution .
Netanyahu’s popularity is low and many Israelis are calling for national elections after the war. Any national vote would likely remove Netanyahu from power, according to recent opinion polls.
As a result, Zonszein believes that Netanyahu could delay a large-scale military operation on Rafah in order to prolong the war.
“All this talk about Rafah – and using it for a hostage deal – is just a way for Netanyahu to bide his time for more and more time,” she said.
Palestinians in Rafah are hoping Netanyahu is bluffing, but many believe an attack is imminent. Abu Ghanem, who lost his aunt, said he just wanted his three young children – two girls and a boy – to survive.
“Children are dying every day… and we live like animals,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune. “Tell the world we just want a ceasefire.”
