Experts and analysts said that Israel is gradually heading towards a third phase of the war on the Gaza Strip, after announcing the demobilization of 5 combat brigades, including a reserve brigade, while confirming that Tel Aviv failed to achieve the declared war goals.
The Secretary-General of the Palestinian National Initiative, Mustafa Barghouti, believes that the demobilization of the combat brigades is a prelude to moving to the third stage due to the inability of the occupation army to continue the battle and the clear failure to achieve the goals.
Barghouti explained – during the program “Gaza… What Next?” – that Israel failed to achieve its central goal of ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip, in whole or in part, in addition to failing to recover the prisoners, uproot the resistance, and extend control over any area that Israeli tanks entered.
He pointed out that there is clear confusion and contradiction among Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies on the extreme right, indicating that there is a gap between the declared goals and the reality that they cannot overcome.
He pointed out that Israel wants to create a buffer zone along the border fence with Gaza, and also control the Gaza Valley area, and the Philadelphia axis (the Salah al-Din border axis between Egypt and Gaza), expressing his conviction that the occupation army will not be able to achieve this after its failure to confront the resistance.
However, Barghouti said that the real danger lies in the attempt to implement voluntary and gradual displacement in Gaza through economic pressure and the destruction of the Strip’s infrastructure, calling for a unified national leadership to lead “the most dangerous phase since the Nakba and thwart Israeli plans.”
Regarding possible American intervention, Barghouti believes that US President Joe Biden is at risk of losing his position as President of the United States, in light of the sweeping transformation in American society, indicating that he is seeking to save himself by putting pressure on Netanyahu, who faces the risk of imprisonment after the end of the war.
High prices
For his part, Israeli affairs expert Muhammad Halasa believes that the economic factor is present in the decision to demobilize combat brigades operating in Gaza, indicating that there are 220,000 reserve soldiers who are considered an essential player in the Israeli economy.
Halasa points to other fronts on fire in light of the escalation of tension with the Lebanese Hezbollah, in addition to the West Bank front, which witnesses daily incursions, indicating that there is a rebuilding of the confrontation strategy because the prices paid by Israel no longer equal the benefit hoped for from sending the army into Gaza.
He adds that the Israeli army feels that it is a victim of Netanyahu’s personal considerations, and therefore “may begin a gradual withdrawal to mark the third stage,” especially in light of the absence of a vision and strategy about the next step, in light of a society calling for elections during the war.
It shows that Netanyahu has been in power for 16 years, and he is known to make his capital by creating problems, as he has always talked about the Iranian nuclear, Hezbollah, and Hamas and did nothing, adding that it is part of his policy to distract Israeli society.
Imminent decline
As for the military and strategic expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, he stressed that Netanyahu is not speaking the truth, especially in light of the presence of 4 brigades operating in the areas of the northern Gaza Strip, which is witnessing fighting as intense as the fighting in Khan Yunis in the south.
He explains that there is an Israeli interest in reducing the current level of deployment of the occupation army in the Gaza Strip after the economic dimension met its military field counterpart.
He adds that the scope of military operations and their implementation has become closed, and the Israeli army no longer has the ability to continue with the same momentum of current battles for more than the next two weeks, indicating an imminent decline despite Netanyahu, who clashed with the Chiefs of Staff and the Mossad.
