The decline in the birth rate and the increase in the chances of survival of the elderly have caused the Italian population to age considerably, to the point that economists are worried about the future of the country.
The problem of the aging of the Italian population is beginning to weigh on the “dolce vita”, famous throughout the world.
The growing number of retirees is far from being offset by the number of newborns.
Efforts by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government to boost birth rates have yet to reverse Italy’s demographic decline.
According to the latest data fromEurostatItaly is the oldest country in the European Union, with half of the population currently having an average median age above 48 years.
Along with Portugal, Italy has the highest percentage of residents aged over 65, at 24%, or around one in four.
This increase reflects a European trend, with the European Union having seen an overall increase in its median age (44.5 years). The number of elderly people now represents more than a fifth of the Union’s population.
“However, what is even more significant is the aging trend within the Italian elderly population itself”, explain; to Euronews, Cecilia Tomassini, professor of demography and social statistics at the University of Molise.
“More specifically, the proportion of individuals aged 80 and over reached 7.7% of the total population, a notable increase from 3.3% recorded in 1991”she adds.
“In fact, while the total population has increased by 3.4% since 1991, the segment of people aged 80 and over has more than doubled during the same period”.
“But the Italian nonni – beloved figures at home and abroad – are not the problem.”says Giovanni Lamura, of the Italian National Institute of Health and Sciences on Aging, to Euronews.
“Prolonging lifespan should be a goal on the political agenda of any national government,” he declares. “The problem is that fertility rates in Italy are low. We are having fewer and fewer children.”
How did Italy become so old?
The reason for the aging of the Italian population is simple: the number of deaths, due to the aging of the population, far exceeds the number of births.
“Over the last 40 years, the median number of children per family in Italy has been less than 1.5”underlines, to Euronews, Alessandro Rosina, professor of demography and social statistics at the Università Cattolica di Milano. “The most recent data is less than 1.24 per woman”he adds.
A rate of 2 births per woman is necessary to maintain a stable population.
This decline in fertility rates began in the 1980s, according to Cecilia Tomassini, although with occasional fluctuations.
“Migration flows have only marginally slowed down this aging process”she explains. “Otherwise, its impact would have been considerably more pronounced”.
If, during a period, this negative balance was offset by a higher rate of positive migration, “this is no longer the case”, says Cecilia Tomassini. “Therefore, the decline of the population in Italy is accentuated”.
The fact that older people in Italy are living longer is actually positive news, says Giovanni Lamura.
“People were able to live longer thanks to beneficial policies, generous pensions and a free health care system that allowed those who could not afford it to receive care,” he further specifies.
But there is another side to the coin.
Giovanni Lamura says the country has not invested as much in younger generations as it did in previous ones.
“Italy should do more to help young families financially, but it has a huge debt (140.6% of its total GDP in September 2023) which is the subject of international surveillance, and therefore cannot afford to go further into debt with new generous policies in favor of the family”he emphasizes.
“In Italy, people plan and dream of having children and starting a family, just like other Europeans. What is missing are adequate policies to support the realization of these plans and dreams”says Alessandro Rosina.
“In Italy, the average age at which parents have their first child is one of the highest in Europe, mainly because young people have difficulty entering the labor market and finding stable jobs, and because that they encounter difficulties in accessing property”.
Those who have children are then faced with the challenge of juggling family and professional life in a country that lacks both economic support and adequate infrastructure for young parents and their children.
“In Italy, the birth of a child is likely to represent a deterioration of the economic conditions of the parents, as well as a complication of their life from an organizational point of view, more than in other countries”declares Alessandro Rosina.
“The country’s limited policies aimed at supporting young families send the negative message that having a family does not bring value to the community and is not worth supporting.”
What future for Italy?
For Cecilia Tomassini, the aging of the Italian population and the decline in birth rates are expected to continue in the future.
And this, “barring significant interventions, such as mortality crises or a new baby boom”she specifies. “In the short term, migration could be an important variable that could influence population dynamics, although it is politically difficult to manage”.
Giorgia Meloni’s government has made increasing birth rates one of its priorities, but has failed to achieve concrete results so far.
The right-wing MP has halved VAT on diapers and baby milk, but childcare remains expensive and difficult to afford for many people.
The biggest fear for the country is that its already weak economic growth will continue to decline, and that Italy will eventually no longer have the means to finance its pension and social protection system.
“If fertility rates remain unchanged, Italy could have only 320,000 newborns in 25 years, with an increasingly unbalanced demographic structure”assures Alessandro Rosina.
“This is not a dystopian future, but simply the most likely scenario given current dynamics. If Italy does not follow the example of the best European policies in this area, development and sustainability social security of the country will be threatened over the coming decades”.