According to Maia Sandu, the Moldovan authorities have proof of Moscow’s interference during the double elections this Saturday. What can the Kremlin do to influence the second round of the presidential election in Moldova?
The Moldovans who went to the polling stations on Sunday opted by a very narrow majority for the European future.
The vote did not deter the Kremlin from continuing its efforts to return the former Soviet republic to its sphere of influence.
Moldovan authorities have asserted that Russia and pro-Russian forces repeatedly attempted to influence the results of the vote and, as a result, destabilize the country.
The director of Moldova’s intelligence and security service said last week that Moldovan authorities had discovered that foreign instructors affiliated with the Wagner group had formed a group of around 100 young pro-Russian Moldovans in “guerrilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
“The training program included, among other things, tactics to challenge law enforcement, the use of weapons and objects to cause non-fatal injuries,” Alexandru Musteata told a conference of press last Thursday.
They were also trained in “lthe manufacture and use of incendiary devices and improved explosive devicesas well as the handling of drones equipped with special explosive or incendiary accessories,” he added.
The American think tank Institute for the Study of War also reported that, according to Moldovan police, more than 300 Moldovans learned protest tactics at a training ground near Moscow and that politician Ilan Shor’s pro-Kremlin nonprofit Eurasia funded the training.
The Kremlin could plan to trigger protests in the next ten daysbefore the second round of the presidential election on November 3, according to ISW.
Christina Harward, Russia researcher at ISW, tells Euronews that Russia intends to continue trying to destabilize Moldovan society.
“We have seen indicators that Russia is trying to start protests in Moldova and turn them violent. Moscow may still try to use its proxies to foment violent protests in Moldova in the coming weeks,” Mr. Harward.
“The Kremlin will most likely use its proxies in Moldova over the next two weeks to try to influence the second round of voting. Moscow is also not going to easily accept the results of the referendum and the Kremlin has already started claiming the vote was not free and fair“, she explained.
Kremlin officials have previously claimed that Moldovan authorities falsified the election and referendum results.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accuses Moldovan authorities of using “totalitarian” methods during the election campaign and that the number of votes in favor of the referendum had “inexplicably” started to increase during the election campaign. of the final stages of the counting.
Ms. Zakharova also assures that the West is trying to transform Moldova into a “Russophobic appendage of NATO deprived of sovereignty”.
Mr. Harward of the ISW believes that for Moscow this is all normal. “We are already seeing many Russian bloggers – including some directly affiliated with the Kremlin – making similar allegations.
“Overall, the results of the elections and referendum will not deter Moscow from pursuing its goal of regaining influence over Moldova. We can expect the Kremlin to continue trying to prevent the Moldova’s accession to the EU in the coming years.
Why would Russia intervene in Moldova?
Moldova is widely seen in Moscow as part of the definition of “Russian world” or “Russkiy Mir” of Vladimir Putin – a notion often used by Putin to justify Russia’s total invasion of Ukraine.
According to Mr. Putin, this world includes the territories of the former Russia or Kyivan Russia, the former Russian Empire and the former Soviet Union.
An international media consortium, including The Kyiv Independent, published an investigation last year describing the Kremlin’s plans to take control of Moldova by 2030.
According to the leaked documents, Russia’s main goals were to ensure that policymakers and Moldovan society, in general, had a negative attitude towards NATO and that the country had a strong presence of groups of pro-Russian influence in politics and the economy.
Most of Russia’s short-term goals, which were to be achieved by 2022, were derailed by Moscow’s massive invasion of Ukraine, which brought Moldova closer to the European Union.
The leaked document notably envisaged Transnistria as a separatist region where Russian troops would be stationed.
Since 1992, Moscow has maintained around 1,500 troops in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria..
Transnistria was a key part of Russia’s campaign, including its attempts to woo voters, Harward said.
“Transnistria played a key role in Moscow’s recent efforts to circumvent Western sanctions against Russian financial institutions and bring Russian money into Moldova,” she explained.
Kremlin proxies in Moldova bribed Moldovan voters with Russian moneye, but the Moldovans could only receive the money through a complex series of bank transfers, including through banks in Transnistria.”
How can Russia destabilize Moldova today?
ISW experts believe that Moldova of 2024 is similar to Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022, and that the Kremlin has implemented elements of its hybrid warfare playbook in both countries.
Therefore, Moldova’s presidential elections and the referendum on EU membership are of key importance for the Kremlin’s efforts to maintain its influence over the country.
More specifically, the ISW believes that in the long term, Moscow may try to influence next summer’s parliamentary elections to elect pro-Russia politicians who could derail Moldova’s EU membership.
In addition, Moscow can analyze and use the information collected during the October 2024 vote to better prepare its candidates.
Russia can also exploit its military and security ties with Transnistria to influence future negotiations or even to invade and occupy all of Moldova.
The ISW says the threat of an invasion is currently extremely low, as Moscow would need to redeploy a significant number of forces, which is highly unlikely, with Russia’s main objective currently being Ukraine.
“A military conflict is extremely unlikely in the near future. Russia does not have the forces or equipment to threaten Moldova militarily at present. But these conditions may change in the future – it all depends on the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine,” concluded Mr. Harward.