While Israel gave the world some hope by saying Thursday that it would consider the latest draft ceasefire proposal submitted by Hamas, the current situation in Gaza may be far from a solution.
Yet on the other hand, Israel spoke in the days leading up to Hamas’s response of its “next phase,” a conflict that would ostensibly be of lower intensity but would keep Israeli soldiers on the ground and prioritize continued fighting over the release of the remaining Israeli captives.
The Israeli government has so far maintained that fighting will not stop until Hamas is “completely defeated,” but with the reappearance of fighters from the group and other Palestinian factions in parts of Gaza where Israel had declared them defeated, it is clear that this is not imminent.
This means that there appears to be no definite end to Israel’s presence in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has “an interest in perpetuating this situation for as long as possible,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Other analysts agree.
“The ongoing genocide, the destruction of Gaza, the starvation of Palestinians and the devastation of livelihoods, combined with Israel’s strategic and security considerations, point to a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip with the aim of displacing Palestinians from their land,” said Ihab Maharmeh of the Doha Institute.
Goals
In the months leading up to Israel’s ground offensive on Rafah, where more than a million displaced Palestinians have sought refuge, political pressure had been building on Netanyahu and his government through global protests, including on many college campuses in the United States.
On May 9, US President Joe Biden went so far as to say that he would withhold bomb supplies to Israel if it invaded Rafah.
But the Israeli operation in Rafah, billed as a limited attack, went unopposed by the Biden administration, with the Israeli military taking control of the entire Philadelphia Corridor separating Gaza from Egypt. Ceasefire negotiations have since stalled and Netanyahu’s national poll numbers have improved.
And with increased room to maneuver, Netanyahu’s government could now work toward a different goal.
“Many of us consider that the real goal (of Israel) is the endless Israeli presence and the takeover (of Gaza) and the liquidation of the Palestinian presence in this region,” Rahman said.
Israel’s goal is to “ethnically cleanse as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza. Israel has learned that Palestinian resistance does not stem from their governance or the identity and orientation of the ruling group, but rather from the existence of a demographically unified Palestinian society,” said Hani Awad of the Doha Institute.
While some members of the far right, including in government, have pushed for the full takeover and colonization of Gaza, Netanyahu has insisted that is not his position.
However, by forcibly destroying a “buffer zone” along Gaza’s periphery and along a corridor running through its heart, Israel is trying to change the reality of the enclave.
“My long-standing analysis has been that Israel’s primary objective is the West Bankization of Gaza (and to manage) the security and military situation and not so much the civilian issues,” Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“The idea behind ‘phase three’ is that Israel doesn’t need an entire brigade in a city. Imagine the West Bank. They’re stationed outside the city center but still have the ability to make small incursions or launch operations.”
Israel’s Dilemma
Netanyahu has made clear his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state. But his alternative proposals have not met with much approval from the international community either.
In recent months, Netanyahu has floated various scenarios for the post-war Gaza situation, including the participation of Arab states – namely Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates – in the reconstruction and management of the enclave.
Biden has said Arab states are willing to help rebuild Gaza, but there is no evidence they are interested in running its day-to-day affairs.
The UAE “refuses to be drawn into any plan to cover up the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed tweeted in May. He also said the UAE was not willing to “participate in the civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation.”
But even if Netanyahu were to succumb to the long-simmering internal resentment against him, there is no guarantee of a change in Israeli state policy.
“This position is not limited to Netanyahu’s coalition but represents the position of the entire Israeli establishment, especially the army,” Awad said.
Netanyahu’s ambitions are reflected in Israel’s political mainstream, analysts say, including his main political opponent, Benny Gantz, and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who recently met with U.S. officials during visits to Washington.
“Even if Netanyahu’s government is replaced, Israel faces a dilemma: it cannot withdraw militarily from the Gaza Strip because of its own unwillingness or inability to deal with the political situation of the Palestinians,” Rahman said.
Israel and the international community do not want to “cede governance or control to Hamas, but at the same time, why would the Arab states and the international community rebuild, govern and monitor (Gaza) on behalf of Israel after what they have done and without a long-term political resolution?”
What would it take to withdraw?
Israeli media recently reported that the army was moving troops to the border with Lebanon in anticipation of an expansion of the war in that region.
But there is no sign of a complete withdrawal of the army, which would require an extraordinary event.
“Israel’s military efforts are aimed at making these bases permanent, which implies that the war will continue until Israel is defeated militarily or forced by the United States to withdraw,” Awad said.
“The likelihood of either scenario is uncertain and depends largely on the outcome of the US elections and the willingness of the next US president to act.”
Barring a radical change in American policy or an unforeseen devastating defeat in Gaza, the Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip is doomed to continue. There is no end to the war in sight.
“Israel has no other plan,” Rahman said.