Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have finally given in. After more than a year of refusing to accept an end to the war in Gaza, he is now pushing for a ceasefire that – mediators insist – will do just that.
Netanyahu’s government met Friday to approve the deal, which would involve an exchange of captives and prisoners, a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the devastating war Israel has unleashed against the Palestinian enclave.
Implementation is expected to begin on Sunday, and that’s when the recriminations against the Israeli prime minister are expected to begin, as he faces opposition within his own government. This opposition repeats the very lines he has insisted on for a long time: no end to the war without the destruction of Hamas.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who proudly declared that he had used his power to prevent any deal to release captives over the past year, said the deal currently on the table was “terrible” and insisted that he and his party will leave the government if it is implemented.
But this will not be enough to bring down the Netanyahu government. Ben-Gvir needs the support of his far-right compatriot, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and his Religious Zionism party. Smotrich appears willing to move forward with the deal, but only in its first phase, which would see the release of some Israeli captives. After that, Religious Zionism said its members would resign from the government unless the war on Gaza – which has so far killed more than 46,700 Palestinians – continued.
The Trump factor
Despite these threats against his rule, Netanyahu appears to be moving forward. The planned start of the ceasefire comes a day before the deadline set by new US President-elect Donald Trump, with Monday being his inauguration day.
The Israeli far right saw Trump – a pro-Israel Republican who plans to bring into his administration several politicians with close ties to the Israeli settler movement – as their man, a president who would look the other way while the movement achieves his dream of building illegal settlements in Gaza and expelling its population.
So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case, and Trump has emphasized that he wants to end the war before taking office.
Although, on first reading, this could be negative for Netanyahu, the impression that the Trump administration may have forced his hand may be politically useful to the Israeli prime minister in the short term, allowing him greater room to maneuver in the future.
“It might be more transactional than many think,” said Mairav Zonszein, an Israel expert with the International Crisis Group, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest-serving leader might not be so easily forced.
“By agreeing now, Netanyahu may have bought himself greater freedom to act in the West Bank and determine the agreed future for Gaza,” she said, referring to far-right Israeli plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territory, which is dotted with points. with Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.
“Everyone knew that at some point the captives would have to be exchanged. This has always been the case. For many people, this isn’t even a security issue. What is a security question for many is who will govern in Gaza,” she said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement, before suggesting that By agreeing to the ceasefire now, Netanyahu could be more sure of American goodwill when dealing with the Gaza issue in the future.
Political reality
Netanyahu has been closely associated with far-right members of his government since returning to power in late 2022. It was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who supported Netanyahu when other members of the Israeli right abandoned him over his corruption trial underway. and unpopularity among large segments of the Israeli public.
Without them, he would not have been able to build a governing coalition and without them, it is believed, his government would fall and, with it, any chance of granting himself immunity from prosecution.
But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, appears to have another plan for survival.
The majority of members of his government support the ceasefire, including the large ultra-Orthodox religious bloc. The opposition also said it was willing to give Netanyahu a backstop to push through the deal.
The prime minister has always had a good sense of Israeli public opinion and, analysts say, he may have understood that the mood is now more open to a deal that would see captives return home and end the war.
It helps that Israel can claim that it has restored its deterrence and that its enemies – including Hamas, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and, most importantly, Iran – have been dealt a major blow.
But, according to Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg, the triumphalism sparked by these geopolitical victories has given way to a sense of acceptance and resignation about the need to end the war.
“Nobody’s really partying,” Goldberg said. “Everyone knew this had to happen. Israelis have been living in a sort of stupor for 15 months. Life has become hard for many Israelis, not as hard as we made it for the Palestinians, but hard.”
“For 15 months we have been told that we are on the verge of absolute victory, but we have accomplished nothing but destruction and murder,” Goldberg added. “We are tired. Make no mistake: many people would still wipe out Gaza if it guaranteed security – but we did our best, and we still haven’t succeeded.
“The Israelis are exhausted,” he continued. “Hopefully, these first six weeks should be enough to build some momentum towards a settlement. »
Count the costs
Netanyahu may therefore be able to capitalize on public opinion and even present himself as the one who ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before new elections, thus earning himself another political stay of execution.
But for Israeli society, waging war on a scale that human rights groups have called genocide comes with a cost, beyond captives held in Gaza, soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon in coffins, and isolation. Israel’s growing international reputation.
In fact, for many observers, the Israel emerging from the carnage in Gaza is a far cry from the state that existed before the attacks carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which killed 1,139 people.
In the ensuing war, the far right in Israeli politics laid claim to the center while the reach of the security services expanded beyond the limits many previously thought possible.
In May, an article by two leading Israeli academics, Eugene Kandel and Ron Tzur, suggested that given the divisions produced by the country’s war on Gaza and the Netanyahu government’s attempts to evade judicial oversight, ” there is a considerable probability that Israel will not be able to exist as a sovereign Jewish state in the decades to come. »
“There has definitely been moral corruption in Israel,” said Dr. Guy Shalev, executive director of Physicians for Human Rights in Israel, which has documented the denial of medical aid and torture of Palestinians.
“The devaluation of human life, especially Palestinian life, which did not have much value before the war, has been dramatic,” Shalev said.
“The loss of life on this scale and the government’s disregard for the lives of the (Israeli) hostages have eroded what we call in Hebrew “arvut hadadit,” which refers to the sense of mutual responsibility that binds all Jews,” Shalev added. “I think fundamentally, if Palestinian lives don’t matter, then ultimately all lives matter less. »