US President Joe Biden has faced growing pressure for months to stop sending weapons to Israel as the US ally wages war in the Gaza Strip.
Human rights advocates, lawmakers and protesters across the United States have demanded an end to the transfers, warning the president that the weapons were being used in human rights abuses and war crimes in Gaza.
This week, senior Biden administration officials confirmed that Washington had suspended a shipment of “high payload munitions” to Israel over concerns about the Israeli military’s planned offensive in the city of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
Biden himself appeared to go further Wednesday evening, telling CNN that he would not “provide the weapons that have historically been used to confront Rafah” if Israeli forces entered “population centers.”
But what exactly did Biden say, what do his remarks mean in practice and what do experts think should be followed?
What did Biden say?
CNN’s Erin Burnett asked Biden in an interview broadcast Wednesday about his administration’s decision to suspend the one-time arms shipment to Israel, which contained 1,800 bombs each weighing about 2,000 pounds (900 kg), and another 1,700 bombs weighing 226 kg (500 pounds) each.
“Were these bombs, these powerful 2,000-pound bombs, used to kill civilians in Gaza? » asked Burnett.
Biden responded: “Civilians have been killed in Gaza because of these bombs and other ways they (Israeli forces) attack population centers. »
“And I made it clear that if they went to Rafah – they haven’t gone to Rafah yet – if they went to Rafah, I would not provide them with the weapons that have historically been used to deal with Rafah, that deal with cities, which solve this problem.
The US president added that his administration would “continue to ensure that Israel is secure in terms of (its) Iron Dome missile defense system” as well as its ability to “respond to attacks”.
“But that’s simply not true. We are not going to provide the weapons and artillery shells,” he said.
Burnett then asked Biden if Israeli forces, who this week seized the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and launched deadly attacks on the city, had not already “entered Rafah.”
“They didn’t go to the population centers. What they did is right on the border,” Biden said.
“I made it clear to ‘Bibi’ (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) and the war cabinet: they will not get our support if they go to these population centers.”
The Rafah border crossing, however, abuts the town of Rafah, and Palestinians point out that even before Israel seized the area, it had hit Rafah with air attacks throughout the war, killing many numerous civilians, including children.
What does Biden’s warning actually mean?
Brian Finucane, senior U.S. program adviser at the International Crisis Group, said Biden was not explicit about the types of weapons that would go into what he described as those “historically used to deal with Rafah.” .
The US president’s remarks also do not constitute “a model of clarity on the trigger for such a cessation, given that Israeli troops are already in Rafah”, Finucane told Tel Aviv Tribune.
He added that “even if there was an immediate interruption of aerial munitions or artillery shells” destined for the Israeli army, “it may not have an immediate operational impact depending on the stocks they have” .
Finucane nevertheless said: “It’s another step…and it’s a step that’s long overdue, but I think it remains to be seen how the Biden administration gets there.” »
Patrick Bury, a professor at the University of Bath specializing in warfare, said a large-scale military operation in Rafah would, however, lead to Israel burning through its munitions very quickly.
As a result, a possible reduction in US arms “is going to be a major consideration” for Israel, Bury told Tel Aviv Tribune in a television interview.
Speaking on Thursday, Netanyahu responded to Biden, saying Israel would “stand alone” if necessary.
“I said that if necessary, we will fight with our nails,” the prime minister said in a video speech. “But we have more than nails, and with this same strength of spirit, with God’s help, together we will overcome.”
What signal does it send?
Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said Biden’s announcement was in practice “very limited, very nuanced (and) very conditional.” .
Biden’s reasoning is also flawed, Jarrar told Tel Aviv Tribune, as it is linked to a disagreement between the US and Israeli governments over Israel’s military tactics and the willingness to launch a full-scale attack on Rafah .
However, Jarrar said the US president’s remarks are a signal that “the blank check policy towards Israel appears to be coming to an end.”
They also effectively constitute “an admission that Israel is committing very serious crimes using American weapons – and that admission should result in very serious consequences that are mandated by American law,” Jarrar said.
What else do experts and advocates think the United States should be doing?
Finuncane said it was important “not to lose sight of the bigger picture” when discussing Israeli military tactics in Rafah.
“The United States has considerable leverage to try to end this conflict,” he said, pointing to the weapons and other military aid the U.S. government is providing to Israel.
“He should use this leverage after seven long months of conflict to end the fighting, allow the exchange of hostages… allow aid to arrive in Gaza and hopefully lower the temperature in the region at large. »
The United States sends Israel $3.8 billion in military aid each year, and Congress recently approved billions of dollars in additional support for the country.
Jarrar also said the Biden administration must enforce the country’s own laws, such as the Arms Export Control Act and the Foreign Assistance Act. The latter includes the so-called Leahy law, which prohibits assistance to foreign military units that commit abuses.
The Biden administration’s self-declared policy on conventional arms transfers also prohibits arms transfers to countries “suspected of having committed genocide or other widespread violations of human rights, using weapons Americans,” Jarrar said.
The International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ highest court, declared in January that there was a plausible risk of genocide in Gaza and ordered Israel to prevent any acts of genocide in the enclave.
“There’s a lot” the Biden administration can do, Jarrar added. “There are also moral and legal commitments (that) the administration is violating by continuing to aid and abet Israel. »
