Tel Aviv Tribune Net correspondents
11/27/2024–|Last updated: 11/27/202407:37 PM (Mecca time)
Occupied Jerusalem- Analysts’ readings unanimously agree that the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel represents a defeat for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to flee forward and refrains from reaching a truce with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip that would lead to the return of detainees, for personal and political reasons.
She believed that the truce with Hezbollah is fragile and may not last long, and comes in the wake of the pressure exerted by the administration of outgoing US President Joe Biden on Netanyahu, and his fear of dictates that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump may impose on him.
Israeli readings agree that Netanyahu’s submission to the ceasefire comes after realizing that Lebanon is a “secondary front,” and that Gaza is the most important and fundamental front, and the challenges it carries with everything related to reaching an exchange deal that guarantees the return of prisoners or a settlement regarding the day after the war.
to fail
According to Israeli media, approval of the agreement reinforces the Israelis’ convictions that the fighting in Lebanon has been exhausted without achieving the war’s goals, the failure of the occupation army to eliminate Hezbollah, and the fear of entering into a long-term war of attrition in the south.
In the opinion of the military analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz”, Amos Harel, the ceasefire agreement represents a partial achievement for Israel’s demand to move forward towards the return of all detainees held by the Hamas movement. He says that developments in matters must be put in their correct context, as even after the agreement in Lebanon entered into force, Israel was unable to defeat Hezbollah despite the blows it received.
Harel believes that the ceasefire on the northern front with Lebanon puts Israel before new challenges, and that the real test is to test the implementation of the agreement on the ground and the extent of the occupation army’s ability to impose a long-term reality without security threats on the Israeli settlements in the north.
He believed that Hezbollah would try to recover, arm itself, and regain its capabilities, and “therefore, at some point, this year or a decade later, this agreement will collapse and another round of fighting will break out.”
According to Harel, Lebanon was and still is largely a secondary front in the war that began with the surprise attack launched by Hamas on the “Gaza envelope” on October 7, 2023, saying that Israel has come back again to collide with the front that is still burning with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. .
Secondary agreement
The same reading was reviewed by Israeli writer Sima Kadmon in her article in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper entitled “Why did Netanyahu answer the most painful and important question: What about Gaza?”, indicating that the ceasefire with Hezbollah remains secondary, and confirming that Israel is required to reach an agreement. A truce with the sector.
She wondered, “Why doesn’t Netanyahu do what he does in Lebanon in Gaza? Why can he return to Lebanon if he requests it, while the war in Gaza cannot be stopped in order to return 101 detainees, whose number is decreasing?” She added: “He does not want a ceasefire on the southern front.”
According to Kadmon, Netanyahu does not want a truce with Gaza because he fears all possible outcomes, including the collapse of the government coalition, the loss of his base in the right-wing camp, and the loss of power on the eve of the resumption of his trial in corruption files. She says, “Netanyahu abandoned the detainees while promoting the alleged victory over Hezbollah.”
Regarding his promises in his televised speech while promoting the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon that he would return the detainees and achieve victory over Hamas, Kadmon said: “That has not and will not happen. Most of the Israeli public does not have confidence in Netanyahu,” and she believes that he does not agree to the agreement for the benefit of the administration. Biden, but because he knows exactly what the next administration expects of him, and that Trump wants to end the war with Lebanon before he settles in the White House.
The Israeli writer suggests that Trump does not really care if this achievement begins at the end of Biden’s term, explaining: “He has 4 full years ahead of him, and even if he begins completing the agreement with Lebanon about a month before his coronation, he is ready to accept this gift retroactively.”
The illusion of victory
The same proposition was adopted by Daniel Friedman, a lecturer at the Faculty of Law at Tel Aviv University. He strongly criticized Netanyahu and accused him of marketing an illusion to Israeli society by promoting imaginary achievements in the war and through the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.
Under the title “Netanyahu excels at creating illusions… but the reality is completely different,” Friedman, who previously served as Minister of Justice in the 31st Israeli government, wrote an article in the Maariv newspaper, saying that “Netanyahu excels at describing a reality that does not exist and in presenting Promises that cannot be kept.”
But the reality, from Friedman’s point of view, is that Israel does not have the military and political power to eliminate Hezbollah, and it is better to tell the truth than to spread false illusions. There will be no absolute victory on the southern front with Gaza either.
It is believed that such a victory promoted by Netanyahu would mean replacing Hamas rule with one dictated by Israel, “but in the meantime, Hamas continues its civilian rule and continues to distribute humanitarian aid.” Regarding the overthrow of Hamas rule, Friedman stressed that Israel has suffered a complete failure. “An entire year of cruel war was lost without a settlement, and it is not clear whether this can be repaired the day after the war.”
