Gaza- The attention of the Palestinians is directed to the developments of the Israeli -Iranian confrontation, which casts a shadow over the course of the war in Gaza, after the occupation army announced the reduction of its forces in the Strip to strengthen the northern and eastern borders of the occupied Palestinian territories.
With the continued confrontation between the resistance factions and the occupation forces in the areas where the Israeli army is penetrating into the Strip in conjunction with the air strikes and the continuation of the starvation of more than two million Palestinians, several scenarios for the future of the war that has been burning 21 months ago, after the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is required to the International Criminal Court, failed to commit war crimes in Gaza, from reaching what he calls “absolute victory.”
Political analysts read the Israeli aggression against Iran, which began at dawn on Friday, June 13, as it comes as an extension of the events that took place between the two sides during the battle of “The Flood of Al -Aqsa”.
Tangible
On April 13, 2024, Iran responded with the launch of ballistic balls and missiles towards Israel, following the Israeli bombing that targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus in the early month.
On July 31 of last year, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), was assassinated while he was in Iran, prompting Tehran to respond to the firing of about 180 missiles towards the occupied Palestinian territories on October 1.
The writer and political analyst, Wissam Afifa, considers that the military confrontation between Iran and Israel is one of the repercussions of the war on Gaza, which cast a shadow over the entire region, and will witness a tangible shift according to its results.
Afifa is divided – in his interview with Al -Jazeera Net – the scenarios awaiting Gaza into vessels and fast, which is:
- A relative decline in the level of aggression.
- Limbing the Israeli focus on the Gaza front due to the army’s having to restore its forces and reduce its operations in favor of strengthening the northern front and protecting its strategic depth from any expected attacks from Iran or allied forces, in order to prevent the confusion of the internal system on several fronts.
This does not mean – according to him – the extermination and associated operations stopped from starvation engineering and chaos, but the resistance will find in this decline an opportunity to pick up breaths, enhance its defensive positions, and benefit from the “enemy” busy in its northern front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dba9fvhj9gy
Scenarios
Afifa believes that there are other scenarios awaiting Gaza in the event that the Israeli -Iranian confrontation is long and its geographical dimensions expanded in other arenas, which makes the sector a front of the fronts of confrontation and not its center as it was since the start of the war on October 7, 2023.
He added, “Then the occupation can go to a temporary housing of the Gaza Front through Washington’s efforts to reach a partial deal in exchange for improvements to its conditions, with the aim of devoting it to confrontation with Iran.”
The political analyst does not rule out that the occupation will go to a third scenario, with a more retaliatory reaction from the Gaza Strip to review the deterrent force through more crimes against the Palestinians, if he felt frustrated by the results of the battle he opened with Iran.
The weighting of any of these scenarios has taken place with the results of the current confrontation between Israel and Tehran, which will be based on the reinstalling of the occupation’s priorities towards the Gaza Strip.
The estimates of the Palestinian resistance factions highlight the existence of field facts that imposed themselves on the field in the Strip, so that the Israeli army is no longer able to achieve a military perspective to achieve the “Gideon” practical goals that he launched recently, so Netanyahu is trying not to be calm in Gaza without a political price and therefore he is strongly pushed towards a temporary deal of 60 days.
According to the well -informed sources that spoke to Al -Jazeera Net, the release of the Israeli occupation soldiers at the resistance in Gaza at the present time gives Netanyahu credibility in front of the public and reduces anger at him, and tries to implement his promise that the war on Iran will accelerate the release of the detainees.
Israeli damage
The sources indicate that the damage to the Israeli home front, and the insistence of the militant Jews “Haredim” not to recruit at a time when the army needs a human force to continue the fighting on several fronts, has created a conviction with Netanyahu that there is no escape from going to a deal at the Gaza front level, but it seeks to improve its conditions in favor of the “enemy entity” as much as possible.
In this context, political analyst Iyad Al -Qara believes that the Israeli -Iranian confrontation is the product of the war that started in Gaza and extended to the Middle East due to the escalating Israeli arrogance and superiority in all directions.
He told Al -Jazeera Net that this confrontation is likely to be destroyed in the coming days, and therefore the occupation will be forced to reduce its forces in the Gaza Strip, which opens the door to the possibility of going to a calm agreement with Hamas.
According to Al -Qara, the occupation is the confrontation with Iran, the most important and the most priority currently, and that the war with Gaza has reached its results, so it will go to an agreement that brings out his captains, and postpones any confrontation with the movement until a later time.
He believes that there is a little possibility that Israel will keep the situation in the Gaza Strip the same during its continuous confrontation with Tehran, while it indicates a third scenario that the occupation will end its war with Iran in a short period due to the devastating strikes it received due to the missiles, and reaching a calm on all fronts, including Gaza.
Al -Qarah stressed that everything that is happening in the region is a prominent attempt by Netanyahu to escape the failure and the great failure that he suffered on October 7, 2023 when the Palestinian resistance took control of the Gaza cover settlements and killed and captured hundreds of Israeli occupation soldiers.
