The past few days witnessed an incursion of Israeli tanks into some areas of the Syrian Quneitra Governorate in the south of the country, and Israel justified its military activity on the Syrian-Lebanese border by saying that it aims to deprive Hezbollah of transferring and smuggling weapons.
Israeli Channel 14 confirmed that the army is working to establish a dirt road extending from the north of Quneitra to its south, and is preparing a security fence on the Syrian border to prevent the infiltration of “militants” towards the Golan Heights.
These movements were preceded by the issuance of statements by far-right Israeli politicians calling for the occupation of Syrian areas, under the pretext of “preventing Syria from being turned into a logistical base for Israel’s enemies.”
The leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party, Avigdor Lieberman, called for the occupation of the section of Mount Hermon located within Syria, stressing that the army will occupy Mount Hermon and will not withdraw from it until further notice.
The Israeli press is also working to prepare the atmosphere for a large-scale movement of the occupation army in Syria, by talking about the deployment of thousands of fighters linked to Iran near the Golan Heights. Last month, Haaretz newspaper published news about the arrival of 40,000 fighters from Iraq and Yemen to Syria and their stationing near the Golan Heights.
In the context of justifying these moves, Israeli army spokesman Avichai Adraee said that the air strikes that bombed the Masnaa border area between Syria and Lebanon at the beginning of this month aimed to strike supply and smuggling lines.
The position of the Syrian regime
On the other hand, the Syrian authorities completely denied the Israeli incursion, but what is noteworthy is that the denial did not come from the military establishment, but rather from a leader in the ruling Baath Party.
The Syrian regime’s Al-Watan newspaper quoted Khaled Abaza, Secretary of the Baath Party branch in Quneitra, as saying, “What is published on the subject is baseless and is pure imagination of those who spread and promote these rumours.”
Recently, press leaks spoke of messages exchanged between the Syrian regime and regional countries printed with Israel, including a warning to the regime against allowing escalation against Israel from Syrian territory.
Agence France-Presse also previously quoted a Western diplomatic source as confirming that Assad had received threats from Israel to target his regime if he allowed Syria to be used against Israeli interests.
According to Arab diplomatic sources, the Israeli threats that reached Assad were conveyed through some Arab countries that have relations with Tel Aviv, as Arab officials made extensive visits to Damascus at the beginning of this year to exchange messages between Damascus and Tel Aviv.
The Russian newspaper Izvestia also revealed earlier that there are contacts between Damascus and Washington, and this was explained by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad himself during a television interview with Abkhazia Channel One.
After the Syrian President’s visit to Russia in late July, information leaked from Syrian opposition members – residing in Moscow and in contact with the Russian Foreign Ministry – indicating that Vladimir Putin asked Assad not to involve Syria in the escalation, and to leave a distance between him and Iran, because the West and Israel are heading towards escalation against it. .
On the other hand, President al-Assad is accused by his opponents of seeking to ensure his continuity in power by cooperating with Tel Aviv and not obstructing its efforts in Syria.
Russian position
As for Russia, a few days before the Israeli incursion, it redeployed its military points in the countryside of Daraa and Quneitra governorates – according to what activists from southern Syria reported – and this came less than two months after the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria (Hmeimim Base) announced the establishment of new military points in southern Syria. With the aim of “calming tensions and monitoring hostilities.”
These movements coincided with a noticeable development in Israeli raids on Syrian territory since the beginning of this year, targeting a weapons depot believed to belong to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Russia had restricted Israeli air movements in the skies of Syria during the years 2022 and 2023 following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the subsequent tension between Moscow and Tel Aviv, as Russia proceeded to conduct air patrols over the airspace of southern Syria, especially in late 2022.
Russia is content with statements condemning the continuation of the Israeli attacks, even though one of them targeted a weapons depot believed to belong to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is only tens of kilometers away from the Hmeimim base, without interference from Russian aviation or the air defenses present at the base.
Tel Aviv Tribune Center for Studies had previously pointed out in an analytical paper published in June 2024 the Russian role in not activating the Syrian front against Israel. The paper confirmed that Russian-Israeli coordination did not stop during the Al-Aqsa flood phase and beyond, and the goal is to control the Golan front and prevent it from sliding into confrontation. It is open to affect Russia’s gains in Syria, and to preserve Moscow’s efforts to distance Tel Aviv from supporting Ukraine.
Limits of potential incursion
Given the course of events and confrontations taking place between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, it is not unlikely that the Israeli army will resort in the coming period to expanding into Mount Hermon from the Syrian side, especially since Israeli surveillance and espionage centers and air defense systems are stationed on this mountain, given its importance due to its view of Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and its proximity to the Golan Heights.
It is also expected that Israel will penetrate the strip extending from the south of Quneitra to its north, which includes the towns of Al-Rafid, Jabata Al-Khashab, and Khan Arnabeh, then extending to the areas of Beit Jinn and Sasa’a, adjacent to the town of Majdal Shams, southwest of Damascus, especially since this strip originally witnessed a limited Israeli incursion to destroy affiliated observatories. Lebanese Hezbollah, then withdrawing from it in 2021 and 2022.
The recent Israeli moves seem aimed at further securing the Golan region, in addition to undermining the supply lines of Lebanese Hezbollah from Iran through Iraq to the southern suburbs through Syrian territory.
Israeli warplanes had previously carried out several raids on Syria targeting sites described as belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, some of which represented centers for developing Hezbollah missiles and warehouses for storing them.
After Israeli warnings against Iran’s use of Beirut airport, Israeli aircraft targeted the land road linking Syria with Lebanon near the Masnaa border point, further obstructing the party’s use of land roads in addition to depriving it of benefiting from Beirut International Airport.
In light of the Israeli reports that clearly speak of fears of Yemeni and Iraqi fighters supporting Hezbollah moving to the area surrounding the Golan Heights through Syrian territory, this opens the door to expecting more Israeli military activity in the area adjacent to the Golan during the coming period.