Sultan Al Jaber regretted insufficient progress. Climate activists demonstrated across the world.
“We have less than three days left”: despite “progress”the president of COP28 solemnly called on Saturday evening countries to emancipate themselves from their own interests to reach an agreement capable of curbing climate change.
“We are making progress, but not fast enough, and not satisfactorily enough”declared Sultan Al Jaber during a plenary session in front of all the country delegates, repeating that he intended to keep his schedule for closing COP28 on Tuesday.
“It is time to put aside our own interests in the name of the general interest”, launched the boss of the Emirati oil company Adnoc, looking more severe than the day before. He will bring together ministers and heads of delegation on Sunday at 3:00 p.m. local (11:00 GMT).
He’s not the only one talking about progress. A few hours earlier, the Chinese climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, also reported progress, the result of permanent meetings between major countries and major regional blocs.
Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) cause two thirds of warming but no COP has ever managed to call for their exit, apart from coal two years ago. Never has the pressure been as strong as this year to explicitly designate them in an agreement at a COP, with Sultan Al Jaber himself having recognized this need.
“We have already made progress on this subject, and I think we will have more very soon, in the coming days”estimated Xie Zhenhua, a veteran of these negotiations who was at COP21 when the Paris agreement was adopted in 2015.
“Because if we do not succeed, if we do not resolve this subject (fossils, Editor’s note), I see little chance that we will have a successful COP28”he added during a meeting with journalists.
It’s not panic yet. A European source describes a “waiting and testing phase”.
China and United States
The four pairs of ministers from developed countries and the South, designated to carry out consultations, have until Sunday afternoon to resolve the tensions. Sultan Al Jaber will then take over to lead the final 48 hours.
The great diplomatic puzzle being assembled in Dubai must both send the signal that the beginning of the end of fossil fuels has begun, according to the wishes of a hundred countries including those of the European Union, and that the energy transition must not be synonymous with sacrifice for developing countries.
China, attached to the Paris agreement, is seen as a bridge between rich and developing countries, and its emissary is at all the meetings.
On Saturday, Xie Zhenhua took care to recall that China and the United States had signed a joint declaration in November to say that renewable energies (solar, wind, etc.) should gradually replace fossils.
Will this be the basis of a compromise at COP28?
“Angry” with OPEC
The skill will be to find the point of balance capable of winning the consensus of 194 countries and the European Union, the members of the Paris agreement.
“The whole challenge is to find formulations which take into account the very great diversity of the starting points of each country and the way in which they imagine moving towards carbon neutrality, while trying to maintain a high level of ambition”explains the French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
So close to the goal, the major camps are repeating their positions, and the ire of anti-fossil countries is targeting OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reiterated its opposition to any specific targeting of fossil fuels in a final agreement on Saturday. The Secretary General of OPEC, Haitham al-Ghais, wrote this week “urgently” to its 23 member or associated countries to order them to “proactively reject” any agreement targeting fossil fuels.
Which sparked a deluge of reactions in Dubai.
Even the Spanish Minister for Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, whose country holds the biannual presidency of the European Union, denounced a position “repugnant”.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher said “amazed” And “angry”.
But, proof that everyone talks to each other, she met her Saudi counterpart on Saturday.