The new American administration advances its peace plan, but Washington, Kyiv and Moscow have different interpretations of what this “peace” could represent.
This week, the Munich on security conference will mark the first meeting between the Ukrainian president and the new American administration. Volodymyr Zelensky should indeed meet the American vice-president JD Vance and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio for what could be the beginning of negotiations aimed at putting an end to the war waged by Russia in Ukraine.
The question is to know under what conditions.
Almost three years after the massive invasion of Russia, expectations in Kyiv are rather cautious. The Ukrainians keep repeating that no one wishes peace more than them, but after so many losses and sacrifices, they want justice.
“It must be a lasting peace and not a cease-fire which would cause a new war in five years, when the Russians regroup,” will build more tanks and missiles “Explains Evheniia Kravchuk, assistant leader of the parliamentary group of the servant party of the people of Volodymyr Zelensky.
She spoke in Euronews a few hours after a new Russian ballistic missile attack on Ukraine and its Kyiv capital, adding that Mr. Putin’s expectations have not changed either.
“” Putin was ready to kill Ukrainians yesterday (and) today, and he will be ready to kill Ukrainians tomorrow. We see no intention on the Russian side to end this war of aggression and these massacres ».
And even if the negotiations lead to a ceasefire, no one in Ukraine believes today that he will last. As after the first invasion of 2014, Russia will come together and return in a few years ” with more tanks and more missiles ”says Evhenia Kravchuk.
“I do not want my children and the children of other Ukrainians to know another war when there will be another dictator at the Kremlin, or enough tanks and planes for invadedr. »»
“” In addition, next time, Russia will also mobilize Ukrainians from the occupied territories to go to war against their own country, “she added, stressing that more than a million Ukrainian children are still in occupied territories.
“IThey were militarized, they were armed. Their Ukrainian identity is deleted. We transform them into Russians and we tell them ‘you have to fight your own parents’, basically “. She added.
Possible territorial concessions
One of the main concerns of Ukraine is whether Kyiv will be forced to sell its territories, currently occupied by Russia.
In 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea and occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. Eight years later, Moscow began a large -scale invasion and has taken over other territories, razing cities and localities in the south and east of Ukraine.
Would Washington are trying today to force Ukraine to give in these territories?
Andrew Novo, of the CEPA’s Defense and Transatlantic Security Program, explains that there is a difference between “Udo not concession de jure and a de facto concession ”.
“” For example, during the Soviet period, the Soviet Union occupied the Baltic States, which were de facto of the Soviet Union. They have never been part of the Soviet Jure Union. The United States and many other countries have never recognized them as part of the Soviet Union He explains.
“When the Soviet Union collapsed, these countries have won or returned to their legal independence from the Soviet Union and their de facto independence from the Soviet Union. »»
Andrew Novo told Euronews that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to physically recover this territory in current circumstances. ” But if Ukraine can avoid a de-jure solution which gives territories to Russia, it can at one point in the future claim this territory. »»
In a sense, it could act as ” a peace dividend Who would help the country “To rebuild itself and to go ahead knowing that it is always possible, as in the case of the Baltic countries, to claim the physical territory which was taken by the invasion”.
However, he admits that, unlike the Soviet Union, the question of the Russian regime is ” A type of speculation very different in terms of stability and probability of maintaining its power within the country and its ability to project its power internationally in Ukraine ».
“” It would be pure speculation to say that the Putin regime is still five years old or twenty years old, or that a new government in Russia would change politics ».
This is why security guarantees are essential to any possible agreement.
Ukraine and the history of security guarantees
Last fall, the Ukrainian president shocked his Western allies by declaring that Ukraine had the choice between NATO and nuclear missiles, and that there was no third option.
“” Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and it will be our protection, or we will have to have a kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know any effective alliance today “Said the Ukrainian president
The presidential office and Volodymyr Zelensky himself had to repeatedly repeatedly repeated that Ukraine had no intention of returning to nuclear weapons. “What I meant is that today, there is no other stronger safety guarantee for us than membership in NATO.
The Ukrainian President had to explain that he illustrated the disastrous situation in which Kyiv was, referring to the Budapest memorandum of 1994, which provided that Ukraine renounces its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees on the part of the main nuclear powers, including the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia.
However, Russia returned to its word and invaded its neighbor just two decades later.
Despite this bitter experience, Ukraine tried to negotiate with Russia after the first invasion in 2014. These attempts led to the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements, which Moscow did not respect, followed by the total invasion a few years later.
We don’t want another Minsk, but we don’t need another Budapest either. ”
So, ” We don’t need another Minsk, but we don’t need another Budapest memorandum, “said Kravchuk, adding that this is why the guarantees should come from States -Unis also, and not only of the EU. “
She pointed out to Euronews that Washington was not one of the Minsk agreements. “CEla proves that this format, Europe alone without the involvement of the American president, does not really work.»»
Asked about Europe’s ability to replace the United States, Mr. Novo told Euronews: ” It is obvious that Europe would not be able to compensate for the United States, neither politically nor materially. »»
He also explained that from the point of view of negotiations, this simply reduced the negotiation power of Ukraine. “SI Ukraine negotiates with Europe behind it, it can obtain certain concessions from Russia and stabilize the situation.»»
“” If Ukraine operates without the United States and only with Europe, the starting point will be lower. If it operates with the United States and Europe, the potential of a better solution is greater from the Ukrainian point of view. “
Munich and the start of negotiations
US President Donald Trump said he wanted negotiations to start as soon as possible, the Munich security conference being the first step to end what he calls a “gUerre insane which causes massive losses and destruction ”.
Andrew Novo admits that he does not necessarily expect that the meetings that will be held at the end of the week lead to a great advance, but that certain ideas will be put forward.
“” I expect the new administration, through its representatives at the Munich conference on security, offers at least a few ideas on the way it wishes to start negotiations and advance a kind of peace process in Ukraine “He said.
Evhenia Kravchuk, who will herself be present in Munich, explains that the situation of Ukraine is different this year, since Kyiv now controls part of the Russian territory in the border region of Koursk, which gives it more weight in D ‘possible negotiations.
But what is most important, she said, to end war is the unity of the allies of Ukraine.
“” This is what Russia fears, which wants to disunite its partners. “She said.