Experts from the Institute for the Study of War emphasize that the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian Kursk region allowed Kyiv to at least temporarily assert itself on part of the front and continue the confrontation in the entire zone of hostilities.
Analysts from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War note that Russia’s possession of the initiative over the entire territory of hostilities since November 2023 has allowed it to determine the place, time, scale and conditions of the conduct of hostilities in Ukraine and forced Kyiv to devote material and human resources to reactive defensive operations.
However, The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to respond and move forces and assets to the area where Ukrainian troops launched the attack.
Russian troops, however, have not conducted active combat operations in the Kursk region. Russia has used its weapons capabilities to put pressure on Ukraine and attempt to prevent Ukrainian forces from accumulating manpower and equipment for future counteroffensive operations, while setting a combat tempo that would allow Russian forces to sustain successive offensives.
Russian officials have acknowledged that Ukrainian mobile groups had advanced more than 25 km in a new direction : Belovsky district of Kursk oblast on the night of August 10-11. It is located south of Sudzha district, where the breakthrough of Ukrainian forces into Russian territory began. Belovsky district borders the border with Ukraine on one side and the Belgorod region on the other (to the south).
Putin and the Russian military command likely incorrectly assessed that Ukraine lacked the capability to contest the initiative, and Ukraine’s ability to create operational surprise and contest the initiative at the theater level calls into question the operational and strategic assumptions underlying Russia’s current offensive efforts in Ukraine, ISW concludes.
“Destabilize Russia”
Ukrainian sources reported that thousands of soldiers were engaged in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk province, as Moscow and Kyiv traded accusations over a fire at the occupied nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia250 miles to the south.
A Ukrainian security official told AFP the aim of the incursion was to destabilize Russia and isolate Russian forces through light, rapid attacks. The sustainability of the operation in the medium term remains uncertainthe Kremlin having threatened to destroy it using Russian reserves.
Russia had suggested that a few hundred Ukrainian troops had launched a surprise attack on Tuesday, but the Ukrainian official said the numbers were higher. Asked if more than 1,000 Ukrainian troops were involved, the official said: “It’s much more… thousands.”
Several Ukrainian brigades are said to be involved in the operation.according to various sources. Kyiv caught Russia off guard by striking a lightly defended sector of the front, which had not seen significant fighting since spring 2022, and breaking through limited border defenses.
“We are on the offensive. The goal is to expand the enemy’s positions, inflict maximum losses and destabilize the situation in Russia, which is unable to protect its own border,” the security official said on condition of anonymity.
Zelensky acknowledges military incursion into Russian soil
Days after Ukraine’s surprise military incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region, President Volodymyr Zelensky broke the government’s silence on the matter by indirectly acknowledging ongoing military actions aimed at “pushing the war into the territory of the aggressor.”
Mr Zelensky’s comment was made in his evening speech late Saturday.
Ukraine’s incursion into Russia continued on Sunday the sixth day. It is the largest such attack since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and is unprecedented due to the use of Ukrainian military units on Russian soil. Ukraine’s raid into Russia caught Moscow off guard and embarrassed Russian military leaders who have scrambled to contain the breach.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement Sunday that its forces had engaged Ukrainian troops in Tolpino, Zhuravli and Obshchy Kolodets, the state-run Tass news agency reported. Tolpino is 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The evacuation of civilians living in the border areas between Russia and Ukraine continued on Sunday. Russian state television broadcast footage of evacuees in a tent camp in the city of Kursk. According to RTR’s report, more than 20 temporary accommodation centers have been set up in the region.
The exact aims of the operation remain unclear, and Ukrainian military officials have adopted a policy of secrecy, presumably to ensure its success. Military experts have said it is likely aimed at diverting Russian reserves from the intense fighting in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, while a presidential adviser has suggested it could strengthen Kyiv’s position in possible negotiations with Russia.
Belarus activates its troops
Meanwhile, Belarus said it was sending additional troops to its border with Ukraine on Saturday, claiming that Ukrainian drones had violated its airspace as part of kyiv’s military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Belarusian air defense forces destroyed dozens of targets flying from Ukraine over the Mogilev region, which borders Russia, on Friday night.
“The Ukrainian armed forces violated all the rules of conduct and the airspace of the Republic of Belarus. In the eastern direction, very close to us, in the Kostyukovichi district,” Lukashenko said at a meeting in Minsk on Saturday.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said the government considered the violation of its airspace a provocation and was “ready to take retaliatory measures.”
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on fire
Also on Sunday, a fire reported at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was likely started by the Russian military, Ukrainian officials said.
Captured by Moscow shortly after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the nuclear power plant has often been caught in the crossfire, becoming a source of constant concern for international observers.
Despite Moscow’s takeover, the plant’s staff remained on site, reducing the risk of mishandling.
Russian forces set fire to “a large number of automobile tires in the cooling towers,” Ukrainian head of the Nikopol military administration Yevhen Yevtushenko said, citing sources in occupied Enerhodar.
“This may be a provocation or an attempt to create panic,” he said.
According to Yevtoshenko, radiation levels at the plant are normal.
Mr Zelensky called on the International Atomic Energy Agency to hold Russia responsible for the provocation.
“As long as Russian terrorists control the nuclear power plant, the situation will not and cannot be normal,” Zelensky said in a message posted on Telegram on Sunday.
“We are waiting for the reaction of the world and the IAEA.
According to the IAEA, “no impact on nuclear safety has been reported.”