The Ukrainian Parliament will vote in the coming days on “preparing negotiations with the European Union” with a view to the country’s accession.
Ukraine, whose counter-offensive against the Russians has not produced the expected results, is caught in headwinds with American aid in question and shaky European unity ahead of a decisive European Council next week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he hoped that the European Union “will keep its promise to Ukraine”during a teleconference between the leaders of the G7 countries.
Illustration of the ambient excitement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was due to speak virtually on Tuesday before the American Congress to try to unlock a new financial package that is as much debated as it is crucial for his country at war. An intervention ultimately canceled at the last minute, without giving a reason.
French President Emmanuel Macron received Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday at the Elyséewhich seems to want to obstruct support for Kyiv.
Mr. Orban called for the postponement of two key decisions for Ukraine which must be submitted to a vote by European Union member countries: one relating to budgetary support of 50 billion euros, the other on opening of EU accession negotiations.
The great Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in June largely failed to liberate the occupied territories in the East and the South, questioning the continuation of massive Western aid.
And if gains have been recorded in the Black Sea, allowing Kyiv to export several tonnes of agricultural products, the military situation on the land front now seems frozen, with no real tactical solution in sight in the short term. Kyiv, however, assures that it can win if Western military aid continues.
“Managing Zelensky”
However, “even under continuous infusion from the West, Ukraine lacks men, where Russia does not have this problem”, underlines to AFP a senior European military official stationed at NATO, noting that “in the training cycles (provided by NATO to Ukrainian soldiers, editor’s note), it is older, less experienced people who now present themselves.”
“We must now manage Zelensky, make him come back from his somewhat die-hard posture. Nobody is saying that officially, but I think that is still a bit of what is being prepared,” comments this NATO source.
A French diplomatic source attempts to attenuate these remarks by emphasizing that Ukraine currently has “a very low mobilization rate” and that on Russia’s side, “the statistics are doctored.”
The morale of the Ukrainians has certainly eroded, tired of this war. But on the ground, the soldiers’ speech does not change.
The French diplomatic source underlines in this regard that all the reasons which led to supporting Ukraine, from February 24, 2022, remain current.
“Supporting Ukraine is a security issue for Europe and for France,” this source declared to several journalists, adding that it was also necessary to “debunk the idea that a crisis was chasing another”, in reference to Ukrainians fear that the war between Israel and Hamas will distract Europeans from the conflict in Ukraine.
“Risk period”
It is natural that there are questions almost two years after the start of this war, observes this diplomatic source. “Everyone understands that we are in a period of risk but I do not see defeatism in Brussels or in NATO.”
For Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, there is nevertheless an urgent need for Europeans to silence dissonant voices such as those of Hungary at a time when “everything is working in favor of a status quo” on the military level, and this, probably until ‘in the US elections in November 2024.
A signal is all the more desirable as on the Ukrainian domestic level, “quarrels within the elites have appeared”, underlines the expert, with particular reference to the deterioration of relations between President Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the forces. armies Valery Zaluzhny.
“Is this the end of the sacred union behind Zelensky or is it just a parenthesis linked to the challenge on the front?“, she asks.
In this context, French diplomats are striving to convince their European and Atlantic Alliance partners that it is also fundamental to continue support for Ukraine in order to send a signal to Vladimir Putin to “not count on exhaustion of support” in Kyiv.
But to do this, Europeans must also accelerate the ramp-up of the rates of their defense industry and the interoperability of equipment.
Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO, Nataliia Galibarenko, recently deplored that the armed forces in Ukraine used more than 200 different weapons systems.