Volodymyr Zelensky canceled without explanation his speech planned for Tuesday before Congress, in the middle of a debate on the release of new funds to support Ukraine. This notable absence reinforces the impression of growing frustration in kyiv as Western support crumbles since the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the eruption of the war between Israel and Hamas.
Real last-minute emergency, sign of annoyance at American procrastination or political message sent to senators? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky provided no explanation for his last-minute absence, Tuesday, December 5, from Congress, at a closed-door meeting, by videoconference, on the future of American military aid to Ukraine.
“Zelensky cannot make it to our briefing at 3 p.m., something happened at the last minute,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer simply told the press.
“This explanation remains very vague and this surprise cancellation has somewhat stunned the elected representatives of the Senate who were waiting for this intervention,” slips Matthieu Mabin, France 24 correspondent in Washington.
Since the start of the war, Volodymyr Zelensky has made a habit of addressing American representatives to demand more aid and weapons against Russia. Main supplier to Kiev, Washington has already spent more than $40 billion since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. But the Biden administration is struggling this time to release a new envelope of $61 billion in a context of political quarrels on the eve of the 2024 presidential election.
At the origin of the blockage: the House of Representatives dominated by Republicans who seek to obtain a tightening of migration policy in exchange for an agreement on continued American support. Late Tuesday, Joe Biden expressed his growing frustration: “The inability to support Ukraine is simply absolutely senseless. It is contrary to the interests of the United States,” declared the American president.
“Dead end”
“Volodymyr Zelensky may have considered that this was a matter of American domestic politics. This may be one of the reasons why Zelensky has not spoken before Congress,” says Armelle Charrier, international columnist for France 24 who also discusses the trail of tensions at the top of Ukrainian power.
“Volodymyr Zelensky was criticized for having postponed the elections. The mayor of Kiev complained about it, criticizing an authoritarianism known in Russia but which he did not want to see on the side of Kiev. There is also someone very popular with the Ukrainians who is the Chief of Staff (Valeri Zalouzhny). Have there been internal tensions?” asks Armelle Charrier.
These divisions have come to light in recent weeks, through increasingly less controlled communication. At the beginning of November, Valeri Zalouzhny notably assured that the current conflict with Russia was at “an impasse”. A term refuted a few days later by the Ukrainian president – in an interview with the American media NBC, Volodymyr Zelensky preferred to talk about a “difficult situation”
Engaged since June in a slow counter-offensive intended to retake from the Russians the territories conquered in the South and East, the troops of Kiev are struggling to find the fault in the gigantic defense line erected along some 1,000 kilometers of the front line by Russia. Ukraine, however, recorded success at the end of November by consolidating positions on the left bank of the Dnieper, the fourth longest river in Europe, which had become a front line in the South. Progress on the ground that the Ukrainians could demonstrate to their Western supporters.
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“The real challenge for Ukraine today is to manage the drop in Western morale linked to their perception of the front,” military historian Cédric Mas told France 24 in November, recalling that “the situation Ukrainian strategic strategy, from a military point of view, was much better than that of May 2022 when Mariupol fell.
Screams and screams in Congress
Beyond this notable absence of the Ukrainian president, the day was marked in Washington by heated debates between Democrats and Republicans. Several members of Congress reported yelling and screaming during the meeting Tuesday afternoon. The Republicans then left the room en bloc.
“They chose to jeopardize the financing of Ukraine and they will all have to live with this choice when Vladimir Putin marches on kyiv and on Europe,” criticized Democratic Senator Chris Murphy.
A first procedural vote, scheduled for Wednesday in Congress on a new gigantic military, humanitarian and macroeconomic component for kyiv should, barring any surprises, fail.
Read alsoWithout American funding, “we will not see the same war” in Ukraine
The White House itself sounded the alarm on Monday, assuring that American military aid to Ukraine could be cut sharply in the coming weeks, in the absence of a budget agreement with the Republican opposition.
“If Congress does not act, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to deliver more weapons and equipment to Ukraine and to supply material from U.S. military stockpiles,” wrote the White House Budget Director.
“Highs and lows”
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing their increased need for weapons to prevent Russian strikes from plunging millions of people into darkness this winter, as they did last year.
“I remain rather confident in the fact that, despite the dramatization of the moment, we are rather good for 2024”, tempers a European source, not however excluding a “blockage” given the very strong dissensions within the parliament of the the world’s leading economic power.
Anticipating the risk of weariness of the great American ally, President Zelensky went to Washington in person in September, meeting Joe Biden but also elected representatives of Congress with whom he had long discussions. However, his visit did not have the desired effect: mired in a series of internal crises which led to the dismissal of the previous speaker, Congress ultimately did not validate the granting of new funds.
This erosion of Western support clearly works in Russia’s favor, according to analysts who underline the resilience of the Russian economy and its demographic power allowing it to envisage a long-lasting conflict.
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“Russia has had an exceptionally bad war, but it is banking on Western apathy and dwindling support. It could be right,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham think tank. House, who however calls not to overinterpret the bad patch experienced by the Ukrainians.
“Both sides have had ups and downs in this war, taken chunks of territory and had shock tactics that worked. The situation is still very balanced. Everything remains to be done.”
With AFP