18% of Ukrainian territory is currently occupied by Russia. More than 6.4 million Ukrainians are refugees.
The war in Ukraine is entering its third year. What are the civilian and military losses? How much aid has been promised and delivered to Kyiv? How many Ukrainians are refugees or displaced? Here’s what we know, or don’t know, so far.
Financial and military aid
At the beginning of February 2024, the European Union approves a new envelope of 50 billion euros for Ukraine.
On the American side, the 60 billion dollars promised to Kyiv for months are still blocked in Congress due to a veto by Republican elected officials.
The European Union is the largest donor to Ukraine. Its commitments made between January 24, 2022 and January 15, 2024 amount to more than 144 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute, which quantifies the military, financial and humanitarian aid promised and delivered to Ukraine.
“However, we see that only 77 billion has been allocated to specific packages. So this is quite a notable gap between what is promised and what is actually planned financially”explains Pietro Bomprezzi, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker project.
“A large part of this gap is attributable to the very significant financial commitment of the EU, these 50 billion which have been discussed for a long time since June 2023 and which have only recently been approved”specifies the economist. “They will be delivered in the coming months”he assures.
For their part, the United States is the second largest provider of aid to Ukraine. They promised him more 67 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute.
If we look exclusively at themilitary aid, Washington, whose promises amount to more than 42 billion euros, is this time the first donor. Help that Ukraine desperately needs on the ground.
“Stagnation of conflict”
The front line, which runs for almost 1,000 kilometers, has not evolved much in recent months. The sign of a “stagnation of the conflict”according to Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute.
Next to 18% of Ukraine is currently occupied by Russia.
Success in the Black Sea
The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 was a failurethe two experts agree.
Neil Melvin believes that the objectives set at the start of the offensive – “substantial breakthroughs” And “a significant amount of territory taken from the Russians” – were not achieved, despite a considerable effort by the Ukrainians and the support of its allies.
This failure brought “a very big blow to the morale and credibility of the Ukrainian army”, confirms Peter Dickinson. In the absence of progress on land, Kyiv has achieved several successes in the Black Sea. Ukrainian strikes on Russian naval forces thus made it possible to reopen the grain corridor to continue Ukrainian exports.
On February 14, 2024, Ukraine claimed to have sunk a large Russian landing ship off the coast of Crimea. Moscow has not confirmed this loss.
“State Secrets”
It is difficult to estimate the number of civilians and military personnel injured or killed during the two years of war in Ukraine. “State secrets”according to Neil Melvin.
In December 2023, a declassified American intelligence report identified 315,000 soldiers injured or dead on the Russian side.
70,000 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed and between 100,000 and 120,000 injured, revealed the New York Times in August 2023 based on estimates from American officials. Russian losses would be higher: 120,000 Russian soldiers would have died between the start of the war and August 2023 and between 170,000 to 180,000 would have been injured.
“Demographic crisis”
Also, both parties are trying to replenish their troops. In Ukraine, a bill provides in particular lowering the conscription agefrom 27 to 25 years old.
The subject is hot among the population. Ukrainian forces “must replenish their own losses, which were very significant. They must also give those on the front line the opportunity to rotate, to have a break,” assures Peter Dickinson. “There are people who have been fighting for two years now without respite. They are exhausted”.
The average age of soldiers on the front line today is approximately 43 years. Also Kyiv is faced with the dilemma of reconstituting its troops without sacrificing its youth on which its demographic future depends.
6.4 million refugees
More than 10 million Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Among them, more than 6.4 million are refugees abroad.
The overall number of Ukrainian refugees has thus increased by 5% between the end of 2022 (5.7 million) and the end of 2023, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
Among them, 6 million Ukrainians found refuge in European countries. The leading host countries in Europe are Germany** (1.1 million), Poland (957,000) and the Czech Republic (376,000).
“Others have gone further, usually if they have family ties, if they have some sort of social support network in other European countries”details Louise Donovan.
Moreover, 3.7 million Ukrainians are displaced within their own country. Approximately 900,000 people returned to Ukraine for a period of more than three months.
Furthermore, almost 39% Ukrainian refugees in Europe carried out “short-term visits” in Ukraine, to visit their family or check the condition of their property.