The ISW believes that Russia’s ability to make significant gains still depends on the level of Western support for Ukraine.
It is possible that Russian forces are currently committing tactical and operational reserves to the fighting in eastern Ukraine in order to maintain and possibly intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations, says the Institute for the Study of the war.
The ISW adds that, in its view, the Russian ability to make significant gains still depends on the level of Western support for Ukraine and that continued delays in Western aid to Ukraine will increase the risk of significant Russian gains on the long-term operational plan.
The weather conditions and difficult terrain of spring 2024 will likely limit the effectiveness of mechanized maneuvers on either side of the demarcation line, as well as the ability of Russian forces to make significant tactical advances while the terrain is still muddy .
Russian forces are reportedly preparing for a new offensive in late May or summer 2024, and Western aid to Ukraine will likely play a significant role in determining the prospects of that effort.