Two American researchers described the attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on Israel on October 7 as an “astonishing tactical success,” and wondered what the movement could claim to have achieved despite the Israeli army steadily increasing its grip on Gaza, leaving many Parts of the Gaza Strip are in ruins and more than 19,000 Palestinians have been martyred.
Researchers Daniel Byman and Delaney Duff – the former a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, and the latter a master’s student in the security studies program at the same university – believe that it is useful to think about what Hamas has accomplished and what it has failed to do by studying three different dimensions: its struggle against Israel and the Palestinian arena. The Ministry of Interior and its position on the international scene.
Successes against Israel
With regard to its conflict with Israel, the Hamas attack on October 7 caused pain to Israel and destroyed its sense of security, both of which are goals of the movement. The attack exposed the firm belief of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that the movement lacks the intention and capabilities necessary to launch a large-scale attack on Israel.
This assumption left Israel unprepared to confront Hamas’s major attack, and its intelligence failure was more successful than the movement’s planners expected. It will leave deep psychological scars on the Israelis and force Tel Aviv to reevaluate its approach to dealing with security moving forward.
Israel’s response could also strengthen Hamas’ position, as the movement has succeeded in bringing the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of international news, and the Israeli military campaign in Gaza – despite the heavy costs incurred by civilians in Gaza – keeps the Palestinian issue at the top of the headlines.
The ground attack also plays into Hamas’ narrative of Israeli aggression, isolates Israel from its neighbors, and exacerbates regional tensions. In the long term, the conflict will strengthen a new generation of Gazans who have grievances against Israel, which could strengthen support for Hamas in the future. .
Successes within Palestinian society
Hamas restored resistance credentials among the Palestinian people, and its effective attacks led to increased support for the resistance in general and restored its credentials in particular.
Limited opinion polls of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as anecdotal reports, indicate strong support for the October 7 attack, and that the Israeli response in both Gaza and the West Bank has angered many Palestinians who are not supportive of Hamas.
The exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli detainees arrested by Hamas on the day of the attack is a clear victory for the movement, which can argue that it was its attacks – and not the negotiations of the rival Palestinian Authority – that led to the release of the prisoners.
International successes
The two researchers believe that the Palestinian issue has now become front and center after it was the last priority in the world, and Israel’s response to the Hamas attack reinforces narratives that portray Israel as an occupying power that brutally oppresses Palestinians. The continuation of the conflict and the subsequent humanitarian crisis in Gaza undermines Israel’s image in the region and enhances support for those who They, like Iran, oppose it. The attack also temporarily halted US-backed normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Beyond the Middle East, the war showed notable support for the Palestinian cause, as pro-Palestinian demonstrations spread across Europe.
With few exceptions, the global South has adopted the Palestinian narrative, portraying the war as a war of a powerful state attacking a defenseless people, while expressing regret at what many consider the West’s hypocrisy in defending Ukraine, while ignoring the rights of the Palestinians.
The researchers continued that Hamas could even declare some victories in the United States, and although most Republicans and US President Joe Biden supported Israel, the Democratic Party is divided, with younger Democrats particularly critical of Israel.