Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the United States on Monday, a visit to analysts plans to focus on the celebration of Israel and the United States self-animated victory against Iran and to discuss a cease-fire proposal in the War of Israel against Gaza.
This is the third time this year, Netanyahu will meet US President Donald Trump, who claims that the United States and Israel have “erased” Iran’s nuclear program during a 12-day war and that he would take up the bombing of Iran if he restarts nuclear activities.
Last week, Trump said that Israel had accepted conditions for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, which would allow all parties to work towards the end of the 21-month-old War of Israel against the besieged enclave.
On July 4, Hamas gave a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators on the last proposal to cease-fire.
Is a cease-fire realistic?
Friday, after Hamas’ response to the proposal, Trump said that there could be an “agreement next week” and promised to be “very firm” with Netanyahu to ensure a cease-fire.
Israel has since declared that Hamas had asked for changes to the proposal to judge “unacceptable”, but that Israeli negotiators would go to Qatar on Sunday to discuss the proposal.
According to a disclosed copy of the agreement obtained by Tel Aviv Tribune, the ceasefire includes a break of 60 days in hostilities and a progressive release of some of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since an attack led by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023.
The War of Israel against Gaza killed at least 57,000 people, mainly women and children, in what United Nations experts, legal researchers and human rights groups describe as a genocide against the Palestinians.
Many experts have told Tel Aviv Tribune that they are not optimistic that a temporary cease-fire would lead to a permanent end of war.
“The way (the cease-fire talks) leaves me skeptical,” said Omar Rahman, an expert in Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for World Affairs.
Rahman added that he thought Trump was concentrated on the release of Israeli captives, but not on the end of the war and the suffering of the inhabitants of Gaza.
Trump had previously promised the end of the war after putting pressure on a ceasefire a few days before becoming president in January.
However, two months later, Trump did nothing when Israel unilaterally resumed his attacks on Gaza, killing thousands of additional people.
Mairav Zonszein, an expert in Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis group, said that could happen again.
“Everything is based on Trump and the United States to support real pressure (on Netanyahu), but it’s very doubtful,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“I am optimistic that there could be a kind of ceasefire, but the longevity and the terms are very questionable,” said Zonszein.
“It is also possible that we can see a ceasefire that does not last because … Israel still from time to time bombarding something without repercussions (in Gaza),” she added.
Yaser Al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, said that many in the band are divided to find out if a cease-fire will end the war. While everyone begs it, some people cannot imagine Netanyahu stick to an agreement.
Netanyahu insists that war will not end without a “total victory” on Hamas, a concept that he has not defined.
“About half of the inhabitants of Gaza are very pessimistic … The other half thinks that this time could be different due to common interests between Israel, the Palestinians, the Arab states and the United States to end this war,” he said.
Glory and pragmatism
Many analysts believe that Trump is motivated by his desire to conclude grandiose agreements in order to boast of his achievements in global affairs.
On Monday, it is likely to attribute the merit of ostensibly dismantling the Iran’s nuclear program – even if it may not be true – and express its desire to recover the rest of the Israeli captives in Gaza.
He also wants to withdraw the “Gaza problem” to pursue more standardization agreements between Israel and neighboring Arab states, said Khaled Elgindy, an expert in Israel-Palestine and Arabic study professor at the University of Georgetown in Washington, DC.
“Trump means that he has recovered the Israeli hostages … and obtained a Palestinian state … So he can be called Master of the Universe, but getting these things is much more difficult than he thinks,” Elgindy told Tel Aviv Tribune.
We do not know if Netanyahu’s political calculations correspond to Trump’s ambitions.
The next parliamentary elections of Israel must take place before October 2026, and Netanyahu could go earlier in the polls, on a probable vague popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining captives.
Like Trump, he also praised what he would condemn an astonishing victory against Iran to the Israeli public.
These considerations are important because it is likely that the far right coalition of Netanyahu, maintained by pressures to prolong the war against Gaza, would collapse if a permanent cease-fire was reached, said Hugh Lovatt, an expert in Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“At the end of the ceasefire (possible) of 60 days, (Netanyahu) could go to the elections by fully committing to war and collapse his coalition; where he could return to war to keep his coalition (far right) if he judges the time that does not go for the elections,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
A possible result, almost unfathomable,
Staying in power is particularly important for the oldest Prime Minister of Israel, who faces several national legal accusations of fraud and corruption.
During his eagerly awaited meeting with Trump, experts expect them to discuss the Netanyahu trial, which, according to many, plays an important role in the saying of his political calculations.
Netanyahu’s position as Prime Minister has enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial system by appointing loyalists to the high lessons and delaying court hearings – an influence that he would lose if his coalition takes place.
Trump is perfectly aware of the Netanyahu dilemma.
On June 25, he called Israel to abandon the accusations against Netanyahu, referring to the trial as a “witch hunt”. Trump’s comments suggest that he tries to put pressure on Netanyahu’s opponents to deliver a forgiveness in exchange for the end of the war against Gaza, said Elgindy de Georgetown.
Elgindy referred to the recent publication of Trump’s social media where he referred to the suspension of military aid to Israel unless accusations against Netanyahu are abandoned.
“The United States of America spends billions of dollars a year, much more than any other nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to defend this,” Trump wrote on June 28.
It would be a major – almost unfathomable – decision to get out of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, said Elgindy.
“I don’t see him following, but it’s a typical (threat) that Trump would do,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune. “Son (Modus Operandi) is to blackmail and coerce. It is its version of diplomacy. ”
Elgindy added that he was painful that Trump threatens to reduce military aid to Israel to protect Netanyahu and not a pasic and hungry of the Palestinians in Gaza.
The decision to forgive Netanyahu lies in Israeli President Israeli Herzog, but such a decision would be unprecedented, and the president did not indicate that he planned to do so.
Analysts believe that Herzog could be willing to forgive Netanyahu if he agrees to leave political life, but not only to obtain a cease-fire.
Zonszein, of Crisis Group, adds that there are lawyers and judges in Israel who have warned “for years” that it is in the interest of the public to achieve a good deal with Netanyahu because of the power he has in the country.
Their only condition is that Netanyahu agrees to leave politics.
“I don’t think it’s something Netanyahu plans. If he was willing to leave political life, he could have already negotiated a good plea case, “she told Tel Aviv Tribune.